IS NYC 2nd TO N.O. IN VUNERALBILTIY?

[Radar]

Earlier this hurricane season we have had long extensive forum discussions about how vunerable the City of New Orleans would be in the event of a Hurricane. Today I found an article about the vunerability of NYC... Is NYC 2nd to New Orleans in Hurricane vuneralbility as far as damage and the potential for loss of life? Would an NYC hurricane be nearly as devastating as an N.O. hurricane? I thought will the season was off to a slow start this would be a topic for discussion.... Below is a link to an article I have found that showcases this subject on the web.


http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050601_hurricane_1938.html

[Brent]

YES!!!

Long Island is more suspectible to surge than any area(especially the Bay around JFK). JFK would be absolutely flooded with 20-30 feet of water from a major hurricane strike. Also remember... that area is MUCH MUCH more populated than N.O. or the Keys. It would be a catastrophe. I think under the right situation it would be WORSE than a New Orleans strike.

[Derek Ortt]

NYC is by far <b><u>THE</b></u> most vulnerable city due to the coastal convex, which produces tidal surges higher than even those in the Bay of Bengal. NO is a DISTANT second when it comes to the damage potential from a major hurricane

[dhweather]

The only catch is can the environment sustain a major hurricane (cat 4/5) that far north? I'd say that's been the saving grace for NYC.

[Radar]

Wow Derek this is the first time I'm hearing that NYC would be the worst city to have a castrophic hurricane before it has always been discussed that N.O. was... I guess it is because N.O. has a higher risk of being struck by high catagory hurricane then NYC does... Can you imagine having to evacuate a city the size of NYC? Especially since a vast amount of their citizens depend on public transportation. I wonder what their Emergency Management Office has as far as evacuation plans. Would NYC be a good candidate for vertical evac?

[dhweather]

Vertical evac is a bad idea in a major cane.

[Brent]

Vertical Evac would be SUICIDE.

[Derek Ortt]

The thing about NYC is that a cat 2 in the city will be as destructive as a 4 in NO. A 3 is like a 5. If for some reason a strong cat 5 was captured by a negatively tilted trough and it made landfall moving NNW (meaning it would cross the Gulfstream at about 38N) and it could sustain cat 4 intensity, lets put it this way... the 9/11 air raid will not be anywhere near as destructive as that scenario. We'd be looking at hundreds of billions in damage, those who evacuate vertically had better have wings as at the height of those buildings, winds 2-3 categories stronger than the surface would be experienced. The 1938 hurricane came fairly close to toppling the Empire State building with its 120 m.p.h. gusts in the city, so we' have potential tipping problems of the high rises as well (unlike the collapse in 9/11, which caused enough damage to the surrounding areas, I dont even want to imagine what would happen if one were to tip).

Also, not only would NYC be devastated by a major hurricane, metro New Jersey and Connecticut would also be devastated. This would potentially ruin our ecomony and force changes in the structure of the country due to the gravity of the impact

[dhweather]

But Derek, if all that happened, we might find Jimmy Hoffa under something.

[Radar]

LOL dh but would we recognize him if we saw him?

Does anyone know what kind of plan the NYC emergency management department has as far as emergency evacuation plans? I tried searching on the web for some information pretaining to this but was unsuccessful in my search. I can not imagine how they propose evacuting the greater NY metropolitan area especially when Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut would be running for their lives as well, and those people have cars... I never would have imagined a scenario worse then a N.O disaster, lets hope this never comes to pass.

[Derek Ortt]

lol

but any body would likely be wahsed 15 miles inland, if not up the hudson or east river

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I posted this link in another thread. It prove that Major Hurricanes can, and have struck Southern New England.


http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/es ... cotash.htm


Hybridstorm_November2001

[clfenwi]

The only catch is can the environment sustain a major hurricane (cat 4/5) that far north? I'd say that's been the saving grace for NYC.

The 1821 storm would seem to argue so. Pushing the tide up 13 feet at low tide would imply a major hurricane I would think.

It would have to take *just the right path*, I would think, i.e. running the Gulf Stream before making the left turn, so it would certainly be a very long shot, but I would not deem it beyond reason.

I concur with Derek's point. There are so many untested structures in that area that a cat three would be much more damaging than one further south where there is a 'weeding out' of the poorly built buildings on a somewhat reguar basis.

(source for surge height is the linked article, source for that being at low tide: https://www.cnmoc.navy.mil/nmosw/tr8203 ... /sect4.htm )

[Brent]

How strong was the Long Island Express Hurricane BTW??

Just wait til the day a Cat 4 or 5 is flying towards NYC... ya'll thought the coverage of the Florida hurricanes were excessive... you'll be re-thinking that. They will literally talk about nothing else until their studios are destroyed and wind up somewhere in Massachusetts.

[Derek Ortt]

13 feet, if it was in the Bay, could be from a weak cat 2 storm. Estimates are for a 4 that JFK airport would be under 30 feet of water, meaning that the tidal surge would likely be 35 feet.

Also, careful about the low tide producing less surge. It contributed to Fran's very high storm tidal and the damage it caused as what happened was the high tide from 6 hours previous was trapped at the coast and the tide could never go out. The hurricanes surge then just pushed water right on top of the trapped tide (usually only works for major hurricanes with a lrrge wind field, like Fran)

[Derek Ortt]

the Long Island Express was a marginal cat 3 hurricane. This so far, is the strongest to hit NE (most of the other 3's are BS 3's which were really 1's and a couple, like 1944 and Carol, were 2's)

[dhweather]

Derek - I think you're on to something here. We have the Saffir Simpson
scale, and now the Bovine Scatology scale.

[tomboudreau]

How strong was the Long Island Express Hurricane BTW??

Just wait til the day a Cat 4 or 5 is flying towards NYC... ya'll thought the coverage of the Florida hurricanes were excessive... you'll be re-thinking that. They will literally talk about nothing else until their studios are destroyed and wind up somewhere in Massachusetts.

Here are some quick stats on the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane...

Facts of the 1938 Hurricane (Francis, 1998)
Peak Steady Winds - 121 mph

Peak Gust - 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, MA.

Lowest Pressure - 27.94 in (946.2 mb) at Bellport, NY

Peak Storm Surge - 17 ft. above normal high tide (RI)

Peak Wave Heights - 50 ft. at Gloucester, MA

Deaths - 700 (600 in New England)

Homeless - 63,000

Homes, Buildings Destroyed - 8,900

Boats Lost - 3,300

Trees Destroyed - 2 Billion (approx.)

Cost - $6.2 million (1938), $15 billion (1998 adjusted)

Source: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/

Also, this site has a lot of good information about the storm it looks like. I don't have time to look at it all tonight, but I just wanted to share it with you all.

[SouthernWx]

While I agree NYC is extremely vunerable to a direct hit by even a 120 mph cat-3, it's an event that IMO is extremely likely. I fear an attack by some nutcase using a suitcase nuke far more, because IMO it's more likely.

I tend to disagree slightly with Derek's analysis of the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane....IMO it was stronger than marginal cat-3.
From the analysis and research I've seen, it was more likely 125 mph or so (110 kt) at landfall. The damage was incredible, both from wind and storm surge all across Long Island and southern New England; far worse than any other hurricane in that area, at least since 1821. The 186 mph peak gust at Blue Hills Observatory (near Boston) gives an indication of just how large this monster hurricane was...as does the reported 100-120 mph NORTHERLY gusts in NYC on the weaker western quadrant.

I also question the intensity of a couple reported major hurricanes to strike Long Island and New England, but do feel several others were major at landfall. For example, 1954's hurricane Carol produced sustained winds of 120 mph at Block Island, R.I....so IMO this was a cat-3 hurricane (was moving NNE at 40+ mph which added to the wind momentum inside the southeastern eyewall). Hurricane Edna (also in 1954) only directly impacted Cape Cod and the Nantucket/ Martha's Vineyard areas, but measured gusts of 135 mph give clear indication this was likely a cat-3 hurricane (plus some of the U.S. military recon missions I've read on this hurricane were amazing....very riveting reading).

In September 1960, Donna crossed central Long Island into SE CT/ Rhode Island. This was a marginal cat-3 IMO....and IMO the last major hurricane to impact any portion of New England (incl Long Island). The eastern tip of Long Island (Montauk Point) and coastal Rhode Island did experience peak gusts in excess of 120 mph; a peak gust of 130 mph recorded at Block Island....winds estimated over 120 mph at Point Judith, RI after the anemometer failed.

I don't believe hurricane Bob (1991) was a major hurricane.....sustained winds were far less at Block Island and along SE Massachusetts than during Carol or Donna; the 1944 "Great Atlantic" hurricane moved slower than most major east coast hurricanes, so may have also weakened below cat-3 intensity before landfall...although possibly still a marginal 100 kt cat-3 in eastern Long Island.

1985's hurricane Gloria was nowhere close to a major hurricane....IMO 75 kt or so at impact on Long Island, and only a 90 kt cat-2 in North Carolina. In this case, the low central pressure (942 mb at Hatteras; 961 mb at Long Island landfall) meant nothing in relation to wind speed.

PW

[dhweather]

Perry - Again, thanks for your extensive historical knowledge and
perspective.


David