Pacific Northwest Weather

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
snow_wizzard
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 994
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
Location: Covington, WA

#6201 Postby snow_wizzard » Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:30 pm

I actually hope I get thrown off of here. That way I will not have to get so pissed off anymore! You ruin a perfectly good storm by your incessant negativity and pissy attitude.
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6202 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:40 pm

You were right about the thunderstorms.

Good job. Seriously.
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6203 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:53 pm

I should have mentioned that earlier... but I only heard a little thunder in the distance and my wife heard none so it did not stick in my mind.

Definitely some places had lots of lightning and thunder.

The NWS thought it would be confined to the mountains and you did not.

You were right and they were wrong. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
R-Dub
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1427
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2004 2:18 pm
Location: Stanwood, WA
Contact:

#6204 Postby R-Dub » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:16 pm

Here are the pics I took earlier, we had a good hour of almost constant thunder and lightning 8-) We had .2" of rainfall, so that takes my rainfall total for the month to 2.95"

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Oh and Snowwiz.........Take a deep breath, and don't get kicked off the board :wink:
0 likes   

andycottle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
Location: Woodinville, Wa

#6205 Postby andycottle » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:36 pm

Snow wizzard...your a great person with a welth of knowledge about weather and also doing a very fine job at reading models. If there`s anyone on here whos very good at seeing future weather....it`s you snow wizzard.

Randy.. Great pics! I too saw similar clouds through the day and as mentioned earlier, I had some good rumbles of thunder with a few really good lightning strikes. I like my storms!! Here`s my set of pics I took this morning and afternoon. Saw some neat looking clounds, that`s for sure! http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/9fd6

-- Andy
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6206 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:10 pm

SW brings up an interesting statistic...

And another correlation to 1993... the period from April-June was wetter in 1993 than in 2005.

The two wettest years for the spring months were 1993 and 1991.

Both lead to dull winters with very little lowland snow.
0 likes   

andycottle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
Location: Woodinville, Wa

#6207 Postby andycottle » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:16 pm

Looking at the latest models, GFS, ETA, AVN, and MRF all show a good deal of shower activity for tomorrow and then decreasing through the day. Lifted indices still appearing to be around -3C. Though not really see any CAPE on the MM5 model. Thurs - Sat still looking dry with partly cloudy skies. Sunday - Monday featuring another round of showers as a rather deep trough is over our area during this time. In the longer term, looks like zonal flow may try and develope for early next week into the following work week.

-- Andy
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6208 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:33 pm

In fact the top 8 wettest springs not including this one are all from the warm phase of the PDO!!

That is amazing.

Seems like the pattern is behaving like the warm phase of our climate and not the cold phase. :D

Number 9 on the list is another year that I think we are following and that is 1969.

SW has bought up a VERY good statistic!!
0 likes   

AnthonyC
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:38 pm

#6209 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:53 pm

Very exciting day.

We had two solid hours of thunderstorms...I counted 12 lightning bolts and thunder shook the house pretty hard. Not too much rain with these storms...it reminded me of the storms Lake Chelan can get in the summer.

I knew something exciting was gonna happen today when I woke up and saw the interesting clouds in the sky. Most of you have probably seen "Twister" and they showed these clouds right before a storm was coming. I forgot what they are called, but they can be a precursor to active weather.

As for tomorrow, lifted indices are around -2 but vertical sheer is limited. Onshore flow has increased and there's not warm, unstable air at the surface like there was today...hint, hint...that's why it was humid. We probably won't see a repeat of today, but with a few sunbreaks and daytime heating something might give.

TT-SEA,

You say you only heard one clap of thunder and your wife heard/saw no lightning or thunder. I find that very hard to believe considering most of the thunderstorm activity fired up along the cascade foothills...esp. the central cascade foothills...ie North Bend, Bellevue. You and Snow_Wizzard have something in common...you both go to extremes...Snow_Wizzard with wet/cold, you with warm/dry. Everyday you continue to say that the rest of June will be warm/dry yet it never materializes...everyday Snow_Wizzard brings up another cold trough with frigid temperatures. You both let opinion take over factual evidence.

Anthony
0 likes   

invisible
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:19 pm
Location: Aldergrove, B.C

#6210 Postby invisible » Wed Jun 22, 2005 12:02 am

We had two days of warm and humid weather. We had mostly sunny with a high of 84 yesterday. The weather was wild today with a high of 81. It turned to Mostly cloud from partly cloud this morning. There was a lot of rain in the late afternoon. I guess we got more than .20 of rainfall. I think the weather for today is awesome. It remained me of Toronto's summer weather. That place gets that kind of weather more often than here.
0 likes   

andycottle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
Location: Woodinville, Wa

#6211 Postby andycottle » Wed Jun 22, 2005 12:10 am

Anthony....yeah, I`ve seen the movie "twister". Maybe you saw something along the lines of alto cumulus? Uhh...maybe you can be a more detailed about the clouds you saw earlier today? -- Andy

PS: Here`s how my weather today...

Today started out with partly cloudy skies during the early to mid morning hours. Then early in the afternoon skies were a bit overcast with some sun at times and also a light shower every so often. And later in the afternoon....shortly after 4pm, thunderstorms developed to which a T-Storm passed over my area with some pretty good rumbles of thunder, a few quick flashes of lightning along with a couple vivid lightning strikes there were about maybe 2 to 4 miles south of the immeadiate Woodinville area. Not really much wind with storms, but just some light rain and ocasional thunder and lightning. This storm activity all ended with in about an hour to 1 1/2hrs time. No measureable precip from this storm today. My high today however was 70 with a low of 56.

Here`s some pics I took of the clouds here in my area Woodinviile.
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... d6&.src=ph
0 likes   

andycottle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
Location: Woodinville, Wa

#6212 Postby andycottle » Wed Jun 22, 2005 12:42 am

For Anthony:
Think I may found something here for ya. http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/sevwx ... ter3.shtml
You had mentioned you saw some clouds that are precursors to t-stomrs. Well maybe you were thinking the altocumulus castellatus. -- Andy
0 likes   

andycottle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1139
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
Location: Woodinville, Wa

#6213 Postby andycottle » Wed Jun 22, 2005 1:17 am

Here`s also a little something from the Weather.com glossery. -- Andy

"ALTOCUMULUS CASTELLANUS
A middle cloud with vertical development that forms from altocumulus clouds. It is composed primarily of ice crystals in its higher portions and characterized by its turrets, protuberances, or crenelated tops. Its formation indicates instability and turbulence at the altitudes of occurrence. "
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6214 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:05 am

Anthony... I have no doubt that there was lots of thunder around yesterday.

But I had no measureable rain at my house and the storms fired to our south. I am not sure about my wife. Even though I didn't see much... I thought for sure she would have in Bellevue. But she said there were lots of dark clouds but she did not hear any thunder.

That just our experience.
0 likes   

Cumulonimbus
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2003 9:03 am
Location: Newcastle, WA

#6215 Postby Cumulonimbus » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:36 am

How active was it yesterday-read below-you don't see many of these from the Seattle forecast office.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
449 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON

* UNTIL 515 PM PDT

* AT 443 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND WITH DAMAGING WINDS OVER
EAST CENTRAL SNOHOMISH COUNTY OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEVENS
PASS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF DARRINGTON...
IN RURAL EASTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY AROUND 500 PM PDT. THIS WILL
CROSS NEAR THE MOUNTAIN LOOP HIGHWAY.

LAT...LON 4790 12139 4789 12119 4827 12105 4828 12145

$$

CERNIGLIA
0 likes   

AnthonyC
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 4:38 pm

#6216 Postby AnthonyC » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:40 am

Andy,

Thanks for all the info! It seems you've done plenty of research and I appreciate your time! Still not the clouds I'm looking for...I'll try to do some research of my own this afternoon...unfortunately I have work from 9-3pm...and again from 6-9pm.

Well, my bold prediction of a warm/dry week has gone down the drain. This pesky low off the OR coast continues to rotate moisture up from the south...and yesterday's thunderstorms threw a curveball in my prediction. We are starting off today with rain...cloudy...cool conditions. It feels alot different than this time yesterday morning. No thunderstorms today...marine push has cooled temperatures at the surface and aloft...the low is progressively moving up from the south and should cross the cascades sometime this afternoon. Expect another substantial dose of showers late this morning...before things start to clear out. Temperatures near normal...if not slightly below normal.

TT-SEA,

You said that yesterday was the sixth day in a row of above normal temperatures...but wasn't the official high at SeaTac 69F? Average high for this time of year is 71F...that is below normal. Is this correct?

Anthony
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6217 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:30 am

The high at Sea-Tac was 70 degrees. The normal is 71 degrees.

The low at Sea-Tac was 56 degrees and the normal is 52 degrees.


That makes for a day 2.5 degrees above normal.
0 likes   

weather girl
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm

#6218 Postby weather girl » Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:33 am

It was reported that George Taylor, the State of Oregon climatologist, likes 93 as an analog as well. He thinks we'll have a cool July and then warm fall that could last up until Thanksgiving. One thing here, though, is 93 was the year of that huge volcanic eruption in Japan. It affected the global weather pattern. I'm just not sure you can trust 93 as a good analog....if you like those sorts of things. But he's the climatologist and normally nails the long range stuff.

Anyway, does anybody want to make a guess about August yet? I think we could end up with above normal temperatures, but also could see this cool phase lasting. It's driving me crazy.

Mild, cloudy morning here in Salem. 57 degrees the last time I checked.
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6219 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:34 am

I am cheering for rain now.

See my previous posts about a wet spring!!
0 likes   

TT-SEA

#6220 Postby TT-SEA » Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:36 am

In June of 1993 we had 2.48 inches of rain in Seattle.

We to catch up!!

I have been saying 1993 was good analog year for almost 6 months.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests