Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

mobilebay · #81 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:16 am

senorpepr wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think if I was in the shoes of the forecaster, I would do the same thing. There are some questionable signs pointing toward 35kt and some other signs pointing toward 30kt. Since land isn't threatened, stick with persistance, the golden rule of the tropics. It'll be best once sunrise comes to get a better idea of the system. With that in mind, my money will go down saying the this will be Beatriz at 11am, unless sudden cyclolysis occurs.

I agree senorpepr. I think Brent's beef is if Arlene was a Tropical storm looking like she did then certainly TD2E is. However, there is one major difference. With Arlene you had Recon missions confirming data, with this you do not. I think that TD2E looks better than Arlene ever did.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #82 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:35 am

Look at it now wow. :eek:

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:13 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at it now wow.

You mean this Matt?

This is Beatriz already and officially will be classified at 11 AM EDT.

weatherlover427 · #84 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:17 am

That's quite a blob of convection there. :eek:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #85 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:20 am

Any other year when the cold water doe's not nearly as far south as this year. We would be looking at a possible Major by 36 hours. But this only has 24 more hours before it starts to move into cooler waters.

Thunder44 · #86 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:26 am

It's possible that if they believe it's intensifying quicker than forecast that they might issue a special advisory, instead of waiting until 11am to do it. They have done it before.

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:27 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's possible that if they believe it's intensifying quicker than forecast that they might issue a special advisory, instead of waiting until 11am to do it. They have done it before.

However as it is no threat to land that can wait until 11 AM.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #88 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:28 am

Wow this system is the coolest of the whole season so far. You can see the shear pushing the convection to the west from the LLC. This is going to be the 1997(What happen to the Atlantic that year) of the Eastern Pacific. This thing has alot of power/Energy...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #89 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:41 am

Have you ever seen the 26c line so far in your life?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/13.html

The area for tropical cyclone development is almost cut in half. :cry:

Also look at this. Only the area with an close to Mexico to 110 west south of 16 to 17 north is favable.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anal.gif

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #90 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 6:51 am

The 06z gfdl has come. It shows that it moves it more westward. In which case keeps it over warmer waters. Also it turns it southeast near the end :eek:

000

WHXX04 KWBC 221121

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO 02E

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUN 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.1 104.7 285./12.0

6 14.0 105.7 263./ 9.5

12 14.1 107.0 272./12.3

18 14.1 107.9 272./ 9.2

24 14.5 108.6 301./ 7.3

30 14.9 109.3 300./ 8.4

36 15.3 110.2 293./ 9.9

42 15.5 110.9 289./ 6.2

48 15.7 111.5 283./ 6.7

54 15.8 111.8 285./ 2.6

60 15.9 112.0 305./ 2.0

66 15.9 112.2 274./ 2.5

72 16.0 112.1 60./ 1.4

78 16.0 111.8 75./ 2.6

84 16.0 111.8 135./ 1.1

90 15.7 111.5 132./ 3.5

96 15.7 111.2 92./ 2.6

102 15.7 110.8 94./ 4.2

108 15.5 110.6 130./ 2.3

114 15.4 109.5 97./10.4

120 15.3 108.9 99./ 6.0

126 15.1 108.3 108./ 6.3

The Gfs agrees.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... html#track

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:14 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TWO (EP022005) ON 20050622 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050622 1200 050623 0000 050623 1200 050624 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 105.1W 16.0N 108.7W 16.9N 112.3W 17.4N 115.7W
BAMM 14.6N 105.1W 15.9N 108.5W 16.8N 112.0W 17.5N 115.3W
LBAR 14.6N 105.1W 15.7N 107.8W 17.3N 110.7W 18.9N 113.4W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 48KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050624 1200 050625 1200 050626 1200 050627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 119.0W 17.6N 124.2W 16.4N 128.5W 15.8N 132.3W
BAMM 17.7N 118.5W 17.7N 123.0W 16.5N 126.1W 15.7N 128.8W
LBAR 19.9N 115.8W 22.3N 118.4W 24.4N 116.7W 26.3N 112.9W
SHIP 51KTS 41KTS 31KTS 22KTS
DSHP 51KTS 41KTS 31KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 105.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 102.8W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 100.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 125NM

Models header has it as tropical storm and start run at 35kts=40 mph.Can we say hello to Beatriz?

#92 Postby **Andrew92** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:35 am

Matt, you compare this EPAC season to 1997.....but it's forecast to be below average. 1997 had 17 storms, slightly above average. Also, 1997 was an El Nino year, which this year is not.

The EPAC this year is forecast to be below average....those forecasts could be wrong of course.

-Andrew92

#93 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:37 am

FINALLY, BEATRIZ IS HERE!

#94 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:55 am

Not for long, but she has arrived!

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:58 am

Tropical Storm Beatriz Forecast/Advisory Number 4

Statement as of 15:00Z on June 22, 2005

tropical storm center located near 14.8n 105.6w at 22/1500z
position accurate within 75 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt.......125ne 30se 30sw 125nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 0se 0sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 14.8n 105.6w at 22/1500z
at 22/1200z center was located near 14.6n 105.1w

forecast valid 23/0000z 15.2n 107.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...125ne 50se 50sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 23/1200z 15.8n 109.4w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...125ne 50se 50sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 24/0000z 16.3n 111.3w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 60se 60sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 24/1200z 16.7n 112.9w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 60se 60sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 25/1200z 17.0n 115.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 30se 30sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 26/1200z 17.0n 118.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 27/1200z 17.0n 120.0w...dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 14.8n 105.6w

next advisory at 22/2100z

forecaster Knabb/Franklin

#96 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:59 am

Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on June 22, 2005

in contrast to the two distinct areas of convection that were
present overnight...a single deep convective band now seems to be
consolidating in the northern semicircle of the large
circulation...and Dvorak classifications are a consensus 2.5. The
system is therefore upgraded to a tropical storm. Ship 9vvn at 12z
reported 30 kt just southeast of the estimated center location and
outside of the deep convection...so it is conceivable the winds are
slightly stronger than the advisory intensity of 35 kt beneath the
convection. However...we will wait to increase the intensity until
we have a little more confidence in the center location.
Initial motion remains somewhat uncertain and estimated at
285/11...which is reasonably consistent with a series of microwave
overpasses and the cloud pattern in GOES imagery. The advisory
position is slightly behind the pace of the previous forecast
track...but the forecast otherwise remains essentially unchanged.
Beatriz should continue on a west-northwestward track...accompanied
by gradual intensification in a moderate shear environment...until
reaching an area of weaker steering currents and cooler waters in
about two days. Weakening and a turn toward the west in the low
level flow is expected thereafter. The intensity forecast is only
slightly greater than the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/1500z 14.8n 105.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 15.2n 107.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 15.8n 109.4w 50 kt
36hr VT 24/0000z 16.3n 111.3w 55 kt
48hr VT 24/1200z 16.7n 112.9w 55 kt
72hr VT 25/1200z 17.0n 115.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 26/1200z 17.0n 118.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 27/1200z 17.0n 120.0w 20 kt...dissipating

#97 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:19 pm

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ (EP022005) ON 20050622 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050622 1800 050623 0600 050623 1800 050624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 105.9W 16.5N 109.2W 17.4N 112.3W 17.9N 115.0W
BAMM 15.3N 105.9W 16.6N 109.0W 17.5N 112.0W 18.1N 114.7W
LBAR 15.3N 105.9W 16.6N 108.3W 18.0N 110.9W 19.4N 113.3W
SHIP 40KTS 49KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 40KTS 49KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 1800 050626 1800 050627 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 117.7W 18.2N 121.6W 17.3N 124.4W 17.5N 126.0W
BAMM 18.6N 117.1W 18.8N 120.2W 18.7N 121.5W 20.6N 121.5W
LBAR 20.6N 115.2W 22.7N 117.2W 27.2N 114.6W 35.9N 111.5W
SHIP 54KTS 41KTS 29KTS 20KTS
DSHP 54KTS 41KTS 29KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 105.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 103.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 101.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 125NM

Model guidance increases the winds to 40 kts at 18:00 UTC that will be carried to advisory.

#98 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:23 pm

Like cycloneye said, 45 mph in the next advisory!

#99 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Sandy we thinked alike.

#100 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:58 pm

5 PM EDT,2 Pm PDTadvisory.

Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

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