94L Invest

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:35 pm

Its now on the main site. Also take a look at quickscats this has a very nice surface trough developing. Interesting.
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#22 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:37 pm

On the NRL site it has it close to tropical depression status with 25kts and 1009mb.
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#23 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:44 pm

Looks like the 18Z NAM is bringing the inverted trough over Florida on Saturday (vice its previous extended run, which brought it over South Carolina on Monday).

If this bears resemblence to reality, NWS MLB, JAX, et al are going to need slight modifications to their weekend forecast.
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drezee
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#24 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:47 pm

041
WHXX01 KWBC 222038
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050622 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050622 1800 050623 0600 050623 1800 050624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 71.0W 17.7N 73.1W 19.2N 74.5W 21.0N 75.2W
BAMM 16.5N 71.0W 17.8N 73.4W 19.1N 75.3W 20.4N 76.6W
A98E 16.5N 71.0W 17.4N 72.8W 18.5N 74.5W 20.0N 75.7W
LBAR 16.5N 71.0W 17.5N 72.8W 19.0N 74.2W 20.5N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 1800 050626 1800 050627 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.6W 28.2N 75.9W 32.2N 75.8W 33.5N 75.6W
BAMM 22.0N 77.6W 24.9N 79.3W 27.6N 80.7W 29.5N 82.4W
A98E 22.0N 76.7W 25.9N 79.1W 29.6N 79.7W 31.7N 79.7W
LBAR 22.4N 76.3W 26.8N 77.1W 31.1N 77.8W 33.3N 79.2W
SHIP 46KTS 47KTS 45KTS 40KTS
DSHP 34KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#25 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:51 pm

Dang Florida, no wonder we haven't been getting rain around here y'all are hoggin it all! :x
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#26 Postby yoda » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:55 pm

clfenwi wrote:Looks like the 18Z NAM is bringing the inverted trough over Florida on Saturday (vice its previous extended run, which brought it over South Carolina on Monday).

If this bears resemblence to reality, NWS MLB, JAX, et al are going to need slight modifications to their weekend forecast.

Bring it! I will be in JAX on Saturday! :D
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#27 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Thunder44 I dont know why it happens but the backup site of NRL almost always has more updated information than the main site as they have first the invests and nonames posted.


I see. I'll be saving the link to my favs for the future. Thanks again.
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#28 Postby wx247 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 3:58 pm

Shear to the west of this system is very strong. I don't see it surviving though it looks fairly impressive right now.
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#29 Postby dhweather » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:01 pm

boca_chris wrote:It's running into alot of shear...the west side of it is being hit hard right now...I'd be surprised if it can strengthen much at all.


I'm surprised it's done as well as it has.
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#30 Postby Johnny » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:02 pm

Isn't this the wave that Joe B. was bringing into the gulf next week?
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#31 Postby wx247 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:04 pm

Johnny wrote:Isn't this the wave that Joe B. was bringing into the gulf next week?


**ducks and waits for the war to commence**
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Rainband

#32 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:05 pm

Johnny wrote:Isn't this the wave that Joe B. was bringing into the gulf next week?
not unless it can crash through the trough :lol:
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:16 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050622 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050622 1800 050623 0600 050623 1800 050624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 71.0W 17.7N 73.1W 19.2N 74.5W 21.0N 75.2W
BAMM 16.5N 71.0W 17.8N 73.4W 19.1N 75.3W 20.4N 76.6W
A98E 16.5N 71.0W 17.4N 72.8W 18.5N 74.5W 20.0N 75.7W
LBAR 16.5N 71.0W 17.5N 72.8W 19.0N 74.2W 20.5N 75.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 1800 050626 1800 050627 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.6W 28.2N 75.9W 32.2N 75.8W 33.5N 75.6W
BAMM 22.0N 77.6W 24.9N 79.3W 27.6N 80.7W 29.5N 82.4W
A98E 22.0N 76.7W 25.9N 79.1W 29.6N 79.7W 31.7N 79.7W
LBAR 22.4N 76.3W 26.8N 77.1W 31.1N 77.8W 33.3N 79.2W
SHIP 46KTS 47KTS 45KTS 40KTS
DSHP 34KTS 35KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 71.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

First model plots for 94L.Goes thru the Bahamas.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NativeFloridaGirl
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#34 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:20 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Dang Florida, no wonder we haven't been getting rain around here y'all are hoggin it all! :x


I have waterfront property where I never have before!! I'd be happy to send it your way for awhile! :D

~Beth~
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#35 Postby Johnny » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:24 pm

Seriously, from what I heard...Joe B. was bringing something into the gulf next week, at least that was his thinking. I'm pretty sure it was associated with this wave?
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#36 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:26 pm

Image
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#37 Postby abajan » Wed Jun 22, 2005 4:40 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Will it survive Hispanola's influence?

Perhaps the real question is will Hispaniola survive its influence. They're likely going to be hammered with torrential rains tonight.

A well developed system indeed.
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#38 Postby Yankeegirl » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:05 pm

I heard that too Johnny, about something in the western Gulf next week sometime.. But Im not too sure if this is it.... I think I heard something forming in the BOC... But I dunno.....
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#39 Postby dhweather » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:06 pm

abajan wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Will it survive Hispanola's influence?

Perhaps the real question is will Hispaniola survive its influence. They're likely going to be hammered with torrential rains tonight.

A well developed system indeed.


Hispanola has killed many a storm.
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#40 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jun 22, 2005 5:17 pm

Looking at the surface, the 18Z GFS bears resemblence to the 12Z NAM in that it keeps the precip off Florida and brings it to the Carolinas instead.
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