Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT,2 PM PDTadvisory.

[dhweather]

She's just not gonna be much, or for long.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beatriz Forecast/Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 21:00Z on June 22, 2005



tropical storm center located near 15.5n 106.4w at 22/2100z
position accurate within 75 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1002 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt.......125ne 30se 30sw 125nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 0se 0sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 15.5n 106.4w at 22/2100z
at 22/1800z center was located near 15.3n 105.9w

forecast valid 23/0600z 16.2n 108.1w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...125ne 50se 50sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 23/1800z 17.0n 110.2w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 60se 60sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 24/0600z 17.4n 112.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 60se 60sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 24/1800z 17.7n 113.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 30se 30sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 25/1800z 18.0n 115.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 26/1800z 18.0n 117.0w...dissipating
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 27/1800z 18.0n 118.5w...remnant low
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.5n 106.4w

next advisory at 23/0300z

forecaster Knabb/Franklin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 5


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on June 22, 2005



The convective band in the northern semicircle has persisted during
the day...and Dvorak T-numbers remain at 2.5. Another report from
ship 9vvn near the estimated center...this time in the southwestern
quadrant and again just outside of the deep convection...indicated
30 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt based on the
Assumption that winds are stronger beneath the convection to the
north of the center.

Trmm and SSMI imagery near 16z suggest that the center of Beatriz is
slightly farther north than earlier thought...and the initial
motion is now estimated at 295/11. The track forecast is faster
than and is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory...in
general agreement with a consensus of the dynamical models through
48 hours. On this revised track...Beatriz should reach cooler
waters a bit sooner and will probably reach peak intensity in about
24 hours. The speed of the official track forecast is close to
that of the GFDL...so the intensity guidance from GFDL was followed
closely. Since some of the dynamical models develop a new system
farther east and eventually bring a weakening Beatriz to the
south...it is rather uncertain how far west the eventual remnant
low will travel.

Forecaster Knabb/Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/2100z 15.5n 106.4w 40 kt
12hr VT 23/0600z 16.2n 108.1w 50 kt
24hr VT 23/1800z 17.0n 110.2w 55 kt
36hr VT 24/0600z 17.4n 112.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 24/1800z 17.7n 113.7w 40 kt
72hr VT 25/1800z 18.0n 115.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 26/1800z 18.0n 117.0w 20 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 27/1800z 18.0n 118.5w 20 kt...

[Swimdude]

Mmmm anti-climatic... Ah well, this will be one of those EPAC storms that form and go out to sea... Yeah, like 80% of them do.

[cycloneye]

22/2330 UTC 15.3N 106.9W T3.0/3.0 BEATRIZ -- East Pacific Ocean


Looks like Beatriz is more stronger by sat estimates tonight 3.0/3.0.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ (EP022005) ON 20050623 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050623 0000 050623 1200 050624 0000 050624 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 107.2W 16.7N 110.5W 17.6N 113.4W 18.0N 116.1W
BAMM 15.5N 107.2W 16.7N 110.1W 17.7N 112.8W 18.2N 115.3W
LBAR 15.5N 107.2W 16.7N 109.8W 18.3N 112.4W 19.6N 114.8W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050625 0000 050626 0000 050627 0000 050628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 118.5W 18.7N 121.8W 18.4N 124.1W 18.4N 126.6W
BAMM 18.8N 117.3W 19.2N 119.9W 19.0N 121.4W 19.1N 122.5W
LBAR 20.8N 116.6W 23.3N 117.9W 27.2N 114.8W 37.0N 111.3W
SHIP 46KTS 32KTS 20KTS 0KTS
DSHP 46KTS 32KTS 20KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 107.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 104.8W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 102.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D

A little more stronger 45 kts at next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 6


Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on June 22, 2005



a healthy burst of deep convection has developed over or near the
low-level center during the past 3 hours producing a nice round
CDO-like feature. Rotation of the cloud tops would place the center
a little farther south...but a 25 kt northwest wind from ship 9vvy
in the western portion of the cloud mass suggests that the center
is north of 15.5n...but still south of the previous forecast track.
AMSU microwave imagery at 22/2121z also implies a position a little
south of the previous track. The initial intensity is increased to
45 kt based on Dvorak satellite estimates of 45 kt from both TAFB
and SAB...and a UW-CIMSS AMSU pressure estimate of 997.7 mb at
2120z. AFWA came in with a 65 kt estimate...and Beatriz could be
closer to 50 or even 55 kt now...but I would prefer to wait and see
if the CDO-like feature persists and if the low-level center
becomes embedded within the center of the convective cloud mass.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12. There remains no significant
change to previous forecast track reasonings. Beatriz is expected
to move west-northwestward and gradually decrease in forward speed
as the subtropical ridge to north weakens slightly. After passing
over much cooler SSTs by 36 hours...Beatriz is forecast to begin a
rapid weakening trend and then be steered slowly westward by the
low-level easterlies as the system becomes vertically shallow. The
official track is a little south...or left...of the previous
forecast and close to the NHC model consensus through 72 hours.
The last couple of images since 00z suggests that the center of
Beatriz may be migrating closer to the center of the CDO-like
feature. If this trend persists...then it is possible that Beatriz
could peak in about 18 hours near hurricane strength before it
reaches sub-26c SSTs. The intensity forecast is a little higher
than the SHIPS model...which brings Beatriz to 52 kt in 18 hours
through 36 hours...after which steady to rapid weakening occurs.

Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 23/0300z 15.8n 107.8w 45 kt
12hr VT 23/1200z 16.3n 109.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 24/0000z 16.9n 111.3w 60 kt
36hr VT 24/1200z 17.3n 113.0w 50 kt
48hr VT 25/0000z 17.5n 114.3w 40 kt
72hr VT 26/0000z 17.7n 116.0w 30 kt...dissipating
96hr VT 27/0000z 17.7n 117.5w 20 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 28/0000z 17.7n 119.0w 20 kt...remnant low

[cycloneye]

Interesting that NHC increases their forecast to almost hurricane strengh from earlier advisorys.

[Derek Ortt]

the most aggressive NHC specialist wrote the forecast. Not much of a surprise that the intensity forecast was increased

[Andrew92]

Betty?

[HURAKAN]

Betty?

I just graduated from high school and my favorite teacher was named Beatriz Jorva and she is fan of Betty Boo. "Betty" is kind of short for Beatriz.

[HURAKAN]

Disclaimer=The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Andrew92]

Betty?

I just graduated from high school and my favorite teacher was named Beatriz Jorva and she is fan of Betty Boo. "Betty" is kind of short for Beatriz.

Oh I see! Still, I just love the name for an out-to-sea TS (though not a landfaller).

-Andrew92

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

997.7 millibars with the Aftw saying 4.0 t. This system is more like 55 knots right now.

[Derek Ortt]

of course Matt would know more than everyone els, as he has so demonstrated here all season so far.

In all seriousness Matt, please be respectful of those who have went through the years of training (including those at NHC whom you so love to trash)

[mobilebay]

of course Matt would know more than everyone els, as he has so demonstrated here all season so far.

In all seriousness Matt, please be respectful of those who have went through the years of training (including those at NHC whom you so love to trash)

Derek, I know you are one of the best forecasters in the nation ( in my opinion). PLEASE go easy on Matt he has had a rough day. I think he is trying to do better but things just come out the wrong way sometimes. Matt seems to be a really good person.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

of course Matt would know more than everyone els, as he has so demonstrated here all season so far.

In all seriousness Matt, please be respectful of those who have went through the years of training (including those at NHC whom you so love to trash)

Give me a break...I give my option you give yours. Why do you people love to trash/bash me? That is the #$#$%# quastion I went to know. I know the nhc forecasters have years of skills over mine but how did they learn??? Thats right through doing there own forecast plus years of schooling. Also I have more respect for the nhc then for any one on this freaking planet. So please don't stand behind the pro logo in shoot me down like a dog.

I'm really really getting quite sick of it. I'v had a hard day of college. All I feel like doing is relaxing and watching the tropcal cyclone.

Also everything I said the Nhc forecaster Also said. I'm going to get a warning for this or maybe even worst but this is the kind of mood I'm in.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

you are not the only one who has had a rough day. You think running a major computer model is an easy task when things go wrong, when the model should have been running 3 hours previously, and when you have such a severe sleeping problem that you need 10 pills a night to sleep? Please. I'd love to have the "hard" day that you had. I'd trade my stress level for yours any day of the week.

You rolled your eyes at the NHC just because their scientifically based estimate did not agree with yours. That is blatant disrespect, IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry you did not have a good day. In hope you can get a good nights sleep. Also I did not roll my eyes to the nhc...I just rolled my eyes for anything. You do a good job...