TT-SEA,
When determining whether a day is above/below normal temperature-wise, I never look at low temperatures as an indication...too many variables to deal with. So I still consider yesterday a below normal day.
Anthony
Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
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Nicely done then, TT! snow_wizzard may not like this next part (and I hate to say it, too) but warm falls generally do not lead to drastically below normal winters. There are exceptions, of course.
Dr. Taylor also said that no matter what, the PNW generally will end up with 3 nice, warm months---either June, July, August or July, August, September. And wet springs tend to lead to dry falls. Joe Bastardi kinda hinted a little at this yesterday in his discussion of long range patterns as well. I'd rather it was nice now and wet in the fall. But that's just me.
One thing about Dr. Taylor, though. He's not an advocate for global warming. He's definitely in the minority of his profession there.
Dr. Taylor also said that no matter what, the PNW generally will end up with 3 nice, warm months---either June, July, August or July, August, September. And wet springs tend to lead to dry falls. Joe Bastardi kinda hinted a little at this yesterday in his discussion of long range patterns as well. I'd rather it was nice now and wet in the fall. But that's just me.
One thing about Dr. Taylor, though. He's not an advocate for global warming. He's definitely in the minority of his profession there.
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
. Thought for sure that might of been it. But hey, at least you now know that thoes clouds are just one of the signs that may lead to t-storms.
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hi folks. Been quite a rainy day here....well through early afternoon that is. And kind of a coolish feel to the air to. Currently a temp of 57 here in Woodinville. And I have recieved .32" of precip since early this morning.
Viewing the latest models, it seems they were right about the showers today. The GFS, ETA, NGM and AVN showing dry conditions through Saturday, but AVN wants to throw a spotty shower or during that day. However, the real weather maker will come real late Saturday into Sunday time frame when a small trough comes through our region. MRF and GEM models shows lots of numorus showers for Sunday into Monday work week. And doesn`t look like there will be much convective activity after the weekend system passes through as LAPSE rates are a bit to stable and lifted indices around -1 maybe -2 or so. So may just see showers and a few sunbreaks during this time.
-- Andy
Viewing the latest models, it seems they were right about the showers today. The GFS, ETA, NGM and AVN showing dry conditions through Saturday, but AVN wants to throw a spotty shower or during that day. However, the real weather maker will come real late Saturday into Sunday time frame when a small trough comes through our region. MRF and GEM models shows lots of numorus showers for Sunday into Monday work week. And doesn`t look like there will be much convective activity after the weekend system passes through as LAPSE rates are a bit to stable and lifted indices around -1 maybe -2 or so. So may just see showers and a few sunbreaks during this time.
-- Andy
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andycottle
- Category 5
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TT-SEA
6.5 degrees below normal today. That offsets the warm day on Monday.
Anthony... I know that you are determining the type of day based on the high temperature (and I do the same thing for my personal opinion) but statistically you have to use the high and low. This is critical for comparing to past years. That is why I thought February was so spring-like despite the cool overnight lows.
I am disappointed that Sea-Tac got missed today with the rain. I am totally for making this a very April - June. Just like 1993!!
We are already wet enough to make it a great comparison to 1993. Combine that with all the other amazing similarities and you have one of the best analogs that I can remember. I also think 1969 is close.
Anthony... I know that you are determining the type of day based on the high temperature (and I do the same thing for my personal opinion) but statistically you have to use the high and low. This is critical for comparing to past years. That is why I thought February was so spring-like despite the cool overnight lows.
I am disappointed that Sea-Tac got missed today with the rain. I am totally for making this a very April - June. Just like 1993!!
We are already wet enough to make it a great comparison to 1993. Combine that with all the other amazing similarities and you have one of the best analogs that I can remember. I also think 1969 is close.
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And the rain continues...
Mukilteo has received over an inch of rain today...our official high was 57F...almost 15F below normal. This weather is crazy...and TT-SEA can't deny that.
Things look to improve tomorrow and Friday as a brief ridge of high pressure builds over the PNW. Interesting note...yesterday it was 96F in Spokane, 102F in Boise and almost 100F in northern Idaho...yet west of the cascades it barely approached the 70F mark...I guess the thermal low missed Western Washington.
This weekend looks showery and cool as a trough swings down from British Columbia...nothing as extreme as the past two days, but definitely unsummer-like.
And when will this pattern turn? Not in the forseeable future...TT-SEA, don't you keep saying the rest of June will be dry and warmer? I guess not.
Anthony
Mukilteo has received over an inch of rain today...our official high was 57F...almost 15F below normal. This weather is crazy...and TT-SEA can't deny that.
Things look to improve tomorrow and Friday as a brief ridge of high pressure builds over the PNW. Interesting note...yesterday it was 96F in Spokane, 102F in Boise and almost 100F in northern Idaho...yet west of the cascades it barely approached the 70F mark...I guess the thermal low missed Western Washington.
This weekend looks showery and cool as a trough swings down from British Columbia...nothing as extreme as the past two days, but definitely unsummer-like.
And when will this pattern turn? Not in the forseeable future...TT-SEA, don't you keep saying the rest of June will be dry and warmer? I guess not.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
Where do you live Anthony?
San Diego??? Phoenix??? Las Vegas??? Dallas??? Kansas City???
No.
You live in Seattle.
Stop acting surprised by cool, wet weather. Even in June. It happens. All the time.
June has warm, sunny days and cool, cloudy days. And rainy ones too!! Every year.
You may THINK that June should always be sunny and warm but then you should not live in Western Washington.
Do a little study on our climate!!
I really think we are repeating 1993. That would mean a long, dry stretch starting sometime in July and continuing until October. This would be a normal pattern. As mentioned earlier by WeatherGirl... the PNW always seems to get a dry period during the year at some point.
Remember... normal is just the average of the extremes. True normal weather is rarely maintained. We were almost hot on Monday and almost cold today. But the average of the 2 days would be about normal.
For the record... we need another .03 to reach normal rainfall for June. It might be close!! This month will not stand out statistically at all. Look back at the month of June for the last 60 years. This month fits right in.
San Diego??? Phoenix??? Las Vegas??? Dallas??? Kansas City???
No.
You live in Seattle.
Stop acting surprised by cool, wet weather. Even in June. It happens. All the time.
June has warm, sunny days and cool, cloudy days. And rainy ones too!! Every year.
You may THINK that June should always be sunny and warm but then you should not live in Western Washington.
Do a little study on our climate!!
I really think we are repeating 1993. That would mean a long, dry stretch starting sometime in July and continuing until October. This would be a normal pattern. As mentioned earlier by WeatherGirl... the PNW always seems to get a dry period during the year at some point.
Remember... normal is just the average of the extremes. True normal weather is rarely maintained. We were almost hot on Monday and almost cold today. But the average of the 2 days would be about normal.
For the record... we need another .03 to reach normal rainfall for June. It might be close!! This month will not stand out statistically at all. Look back at the month of June for the last 60 years. This month fits right in.
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TT-SEA,
June CAN be a cool/cloudy month...I'm not denying that...but this EXTREME is not normal. I keep weather statistics everyday...I've been doing this the past 10 years...this June has seen 17 cloudy days...5 days of sun. This hasn't been like this since 1993. To say this June is normal is ridiculous because it's not. Sure we can have some cool/cloudy weather but we also need some warm/dry weather to balance it out...and that will not happen this month. Just face it TT-SEA...this month is not normal. And if you keep saying that, I'm gonna start losing respect for you. You've got one set agenda...if it's not your way, it's the highway.
Anthony
June CAN be a cool/cloudy month...I'm not denying that...but this EXTREME is not normal. I keep weather statistics everyday...I've been doing this the past 10 years...this June has seen 17 cloudy days...5 days of sun. This hasn't been like this since 1993. To say this June is normal is ridiculous because it's not. Sure we can have some cool/cloudy weather but we also need some warm/dry weather to balance it out...and that will not happen this month. Just face it TT-SEA...this month is not normal. And if you keep saying that, I'm gonna start losing respect for you. You've got one set agenda...if it's not your way, it's the highway.
Anthony
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And another thing...
When's the last time you saw a June with such an active jet stream. Usually, the jet stream shifts north and leaves us in the clear...sure, we can have morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, but June is never affected by weather system after weather system...trough after trough. This is not normal for June...esp. the middle/end of the month. And June almost always has a mini heatwave that brings at least one day of 90F+ weather...has that happened this month? Dude, we've only surpassed the 80F mark once...maybe twice...if that.
Anthony
When's the last time you saw a June with such an active jet stream. Usually, the jet stream shifts north and leaves us in the clear...sure, we can have morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, but June is never affected by weather system after weather system...trough after trough. This is not normal for June...esp. the middle/end of the month. And June almost always has a mini heatwave that brings at least one day of 90F+ weather...has that happened this month? Dude, we've only surpassed the 80F mark once...maybe twice...if that.
Anthony
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TT-SEA
1993.
That is what I have been saying.
10 years from now if you are reviewing temperature and rainfall data for Seattle... 2005 will look pretty normal.
Yes... this month has been cloudier and cooler than normal. No doubt about it.
It looks like June of 1999 also had lots of cloudy weather... and 20 days with measurable precipitation.
It happens.
That is what I have been saying.
10 years from now if you are reviewing temperature and rainfall data for Seattle... 2005 will look pretty normal.
Yes... this month has been cloudier and cooler than normal. No doubt about it.
It looks like June of 1999 also had lots of cloudy weather... and 20 days with measurable precipitation.
It happens.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Bottom line... we have been in a pattern similar to 1993 since February.
We had a bone dry February followed by a wet spring in both 1993 and 2005.
Southern California was blasted in the spring of 1993 with record flooding... just like 2005.
The ENSO conditions were almost identical - a weak El Nino.
June of 1993 was wetter than June of 2005... but I think the overall pattern was very much the same. Cloudy and cool with rain all over the place. One of the wettest April-June periods ever occurred in 1993. We have been almost as wet in 2005.
And a really wet spring seems to be a characteristic of the warm phase of our climate. Remember... the 8 wettest April-June peiods have occurred in the most recent warm phase.
Look for drier than normal weather for the next 3 months. Not very hot... but much drier.
But that seems kind of obvious after a wet spring.
I am also fairly confident that this coming winter will not be very exciting.
We had a bone dry February followed by a wet spring in both 1993 and 2005.
Southern California was blasted in the spring of 1993 with record flooding... just like 2005.
The ENSO conditions were almost identical - a weak El Nino.
June of 1993 was wetter than June of 2005... but I think the overall pattern was very much the same. Cloudy and cool with rain all over the place. One of the wettest April-June periods ever occurred in 1993. We have been almost as wet in 2005.
And a really wet spring seems to be a characteristic of the warm phase of our climate. Remember... the 8 wettest April-June peiods have occurred in the most recent warm phase.
Look for drier than normal weather for the next 3 months. Not very hot... but much drier.
But that seems kind of obvious after a wet spring.
I am also fairly confident that this coming winter will not be very exciting.
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
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- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hi all! 
Viewing the latest models, it seems that despite a 564DM trough coming over us for late this weekend, that skies may actually be partly cloudy and only a chance of showers as GFS and ETA are bit on the dry side. NGM model also a bit dry as well. Though out of these three models, AVN shows numorus shower activity for late sunday into monday time frame. After monday, looks like maybe a stray shower or two as conditions look to be mostly dry again through about next weekend. Temp wise....highs are in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s tomorrow through next thursday.
-- Andy
Viewing the latest models, it seems that despite a 564DM trough coming over us for late this weekend, that skies may actually be partly cloudy and only a chance of showers as GFS and ETA are bit on the dry side. NGM model also a bit dry as well. Though out of these three models, AVN shows numorus shower activity for late sunday into monday time frame. After monday, looks like maybe a stray shower or two as conditions look to be mostly dry again through about next weekend. Temp wise....highs are in the upper 60`s to lower 70`s tomorrow through next thursday.
-- Andy
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TT-SEA
To be fair... SW saw the thunderstorms on Tuesday when the NWS did not forecast it to happen in the lowlands.
On the other side... 3 days ago the NWS forecasted upper 60's and low 70's for Thursday. SW said they had no clue.
The highs today were between 70-74 degrees throughout the Seattle area.
Gotta give them credit on that one!!
On the other side... 3 days ago the NWS forecasted upper 60's and low 70's for Thursday. SW said they had no clue.
The highs today were between 70-74 degrees throughout the Seattle area.
Gotta give them credit on that one!!
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Uhh Tim..? You know how it is....just some days are really slow on here, and today is one of them.
Anyway...a very nice day indeed. Just a slight overcast early this morning, then became mostly sunny by mid morning. Clouds started slowly increasing early to late this afternoon. My high today was 74 with a low of 50. -- Andy
Anyway...a very nice day indeed. Just a slight overcast early this morning, then became mostly sunny by mid morning. Clouds started slowly increasing early to late this afternoon. My high today was 74 with a low of 50. -- Andy
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