The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Because the shear over it is only 5 to 10 knots. In has decreased from this morning...The Cmc,Gfs,Gfdl(18z) develop a low pressure system that moves across cuba into the western Atlatnic. Then up the coast of Florida. There is a low level trough already by quickscats. The convection has just fired over the high mountains of Hati tonight. In I expect it to come back as it moves away west-northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then a northwest movement then after. I also expect a cyclone out of this. Reason is the models are at this like they where with Arlene now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Whats this about shear?
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wx247
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Look at the shear to the WNW of this disturbance. I don't see this developing. The environment is not favorable enough.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
The enviroment with this is much more favable then it was for Arlene.
The Cmc is developing it
The Gfs is developing it to a point
The Nogaps with ht/pressure falls
Gfdl 18z is developing it.
Hati/Domc high mountains are sucking the convection over them at this moment in that is why you don't see convection over it. When this moves away start watching. About that shear to the north if north enough that can help enhance the outflow. So that is hardly what you can call unfavable.
The Cmc is developing it
The Gfs is developing it to a point
The Nogaps with ht/pressure falls
Gfdl 18z is developing it.
Hati/Domc high mountains are sucking the convection over them at this moment in that is why you don't see convection over it. When this moves away start watching. About that shear to the north if north enough that can help enhance the outflow. So that is hardly what you can call unfavable.
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While the animations on the tcgengifs page give the appearance at a couple of points that the GFS closes a low for this system, that doesn't appear to be the case; I don't see any indication of it when I look at the images on NCEP's page. Also see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html , which does not show the GFS spinning up a cyclone in the region.
I'm skeptical of the first six hours of the GFDL forecast. Comes out fairly close to the 12Z CMC wrt landfall, nonetheless...
I'm skeptical of the first six hours of the GFDL forecast. Comes out fairly close to the 12Z CMC wrt landfall, nonetheless...
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wx247
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm forecasting this to be Bret if I'm wrong then I'm wrong!!!
Fair enough!
Just 'splainin' myself, too. hehehe
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cyclonaut
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