SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, dangerous day ahead....

[WXBUFFJIM]

A dangerous day is expected across southwest Iowa, west central Missouri, and into southeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas with very large hail, destructive windtorms, and the potential for long tracked and potentially violent tornadoes this afternoon. Later in the aftrernoon, supercells with large hail and isolated tornadoes are expected in the Dallas area and that will drift east towards Shreveport later in the night.

An intensifying low pressure system will combine with a strong cold front and a strong disturbance approaching from the rockies. That all plows into the central plains this afternoon increasing the severe and tornado threat later this afternoon. Some of the tornadoes could be long tracked and potentially violent. Anywhere from Des Moines, KC Columbia, MO, St Louis, Springfield, MO, and down into the Little Rock area are in the path of the potentially violent tornadoes. In addition hail, baseball size or larger and thunderstorm wind gusts to 80 mph could be widespread. Supercells are expected to be the initial convective mode with bow echos later this evening and overnight tonight with supercell embedded within the intense squall line. A dangerous and potentiall deadly situation in the cards. More updates soon.

Jim

[Stormsfury]

There was a HIGH RISK area in the Plains - Garrett, be on your guard today! But just as I posted the map, SPC downgraded to moderate risk.
(Now it's back up again ... What in the world?)



STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER PORTIONS ERN KS...ERN OK...WRN MO...AND WNR AR...TO THE RIGHT
OF A LINE FROM MLC 35 WSW JLN 30 WNW FLV STJ P35 IRK JEF TBN HOT
30 NW PRX MLC.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS ERN KS...ERN
OK...AR...MO...SERN NEB...SRN IA...EXTREME WRN IL...AND NERN TX...
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DAL DAL DUA TUL 20 E EMP 25 NE MHK
BIE OMA 45 WSW DSM OTM 30 ESE BRL SPI 25 SE BLV 25 ESE POF PBF GGG
45 SW TYR 40 S DAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM 20 N MWL 35 NW ADM 40 NNW BVO CNK 25 SSW MHN AIA 35 N CDR PHP
30 W BKX RST JVL 45 NE LAF 40 WSW LUK LOZ RMG CBM MLU 50 SW LFK
HDO 55 NNE DRT 15 WNW BWD 20 N MWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GLS COT
45 NW DRT 40 S OKC PNC ICT 35 NW HUT 25 N DDC 45 ESE GLD IML
35 NNW AKO 25 SE FCL 45 W COS DRO PGA P38 75 SSW ELY 4LW 20 E PDX
25 ENE BLI 35 NNW 63S 55 NNW FCA 55 ENE CTB 55 N GGW 65 NE MOT
45 SW DVL 15 E JMS BRD 40 S DLH IMT 40 SE OSC 40 SE DTW DOV
25 S EWN ...CONT... 25 E CHS 15 S AUO 45 NNW MOB 35 WNW LFT
30 ESE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SRQ
10 NNW VRB.

--- SYNOPSIS ---
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY...MAIN LARGE-
SCALE FEATURE BEING WRN CONUS TROUGH. ASSOCIATED CYCLONE -- NOW
EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN WY/ERN MT...IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WHILE STRONG SPEED MAX
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER WRN CO MOVE EWD ACROSS
KS/NEB. UPSTREAM....STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ASHORE
WA/ORE SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH AFTERNOON.

AT SURFACE...LARGE OUTFLOW POOL FROM NEB MCS HAS EFFECTIVELY
BIFURCATED SURFACE CYCLONE...BUT LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AGAIN OVER
SRN NEB/NRN KS DURING DAY AND MOVE EWD THEN NEWD INTO WRN IA BY
00Z. DRYLINE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM W-CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES THEN SWWD TO PERMIAN BASIN REGION...
SHOULD ADVECT AND MIX EWD THROUGHOUT REMAINDER MORNING/
AFTERNOON...REACHING ERN PORTIONS KS/OK BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIATION OF MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS FORECAST. WARM FRONT --
NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL KS/NEB BORDER REGION SEWD ACROSS S-
CENTRAL AR TO WRN FL PANHANDLE -- SHOULD LIFT NWD RAPIDLY ACROSS
NERN KS...REMAINDER AR AND MO TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS WRN IL
TONIGHT.

--- LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEY REGIONS TO ARKLATEX ---
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM EVENT LIKELY...WITH OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ANTICIPATED TODAY FROM
MUCH OF ERN KS/ERN OK AND MO SWWD AT LEAST AS FAR AS SE OK/NE
TX...SHIFTING EWD WITH TIME ACROSS MO/AR/WRN IL. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LONG-TRACK AND VIOLENT TORNADOES WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS IN HIGH
RISK AREA...AND SEVERAL CYCLIC/MULTIPLE TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS
SHOULD OCCUR. NUMEROUS EVENTS OF DAMAGING GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE FROM LATER BOWS/LEWPS
THAT MAY EVOLVE FROM EARLY SUPERCELLS.

SPORADIC AND MAINLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
FROM BAND OF TSTMS -- IN STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME NOW
MAXIMIZED FROM SERN MO TO SWRN SD AND FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EWD/NEWD. SUBSEQUENTLY...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z OVER E-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY
AND INTO ARKLATEX AREA. CAP SHOULD BREAK ALONG DRYLINE FRONT
THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON IN DISCRETE CELLS...RESULTING IN RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN A SWEEPING ARC OVER WRN PORTIONS SLGT/MDT
CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS. UNUSUALLY INTENSE UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS
AND RAPID EVOLUTION TO SUPERCELLS IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRENGTH OF
BOTH INSTABILITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL KINEMATIC FIELDS.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AIR MASS OVER THAT PORTION OF THIS REGION N OF
MO RIVER WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE AFTER
MORNING CONVECTION...THROUGH BOTH WAA AND SURFACE INSOLATION.
FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR...AND NE TX...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS UNCONTAMINATED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION AND SHOULD
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND WARM FROPA.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE RANGING FROM ALMOST
4000 J/KG OVER ARKLATEX TO 2000 J/KG IN MO/NEB BORDER REGION.
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST THROUGHOUT REGION...E.G. 60-80 KT 0-
6 KM VECTOR SHEAR AND 90-120 KT BRN SHEARS. LARGE HODOGRAPHS
FORECAST WITH 0-1 KM SRH 200-400 J/KG...AND 0-3 KM SRH 300-600 J/KG
ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS. SEVERE TSTMS
MAY BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN TX...OUTLOOK BEING
MORE CONDITIONAL IN THIS REGION BECAUSE OF CAPPING. HOWEVER...VERY
LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND SLGT TORNADO RISK EXIST WITH ANY TSTMS
WHICH DEVELOP IN THAT AREA.

--- NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ---
EXPECT LESS AIR MASS INSTABILITY AND MUCH WEAKER KINEMATIC SUPPORT
RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER SE...WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXTENT
OF RECOVERY ACROSS NEB INTO SD RESULTING FROM OVERNIGHT MCS.
STILL...EXPECT SOME SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG DPVA REGION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME VERY STEEP OVER PARTS OF
NEB...8-9 DEG C/KM...YIELDING MLCAPES 800-1500 J/KG DESPITE COOL
SURFACE TEMPS.

--- SERN CONUS ---
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN CLUSTERS
TODAY INVOF NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE EACH SHOULD OCCUR WITH MOST
PERSISTENT/INTENSE CELLS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH MESO-BETA TO STORM SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. 45-
60 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM AGL LAYER IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH 150-250 J/KG
SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER.

--- INLAND PACIFIC NW ---
INSOLATION SHOULD COMBINE WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST
AHEAD OF LANDFALLING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE 300-500 J/KG
MLCAPE IN SOME LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE-
BASED SHALLOW TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS...BASED ON INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH DEEP LAYER.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
MORE THAN MARGINAL PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS/NADEN.. 05/04/03

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z

[wx247]

I will be Storms! Thanks for your concern. I had a lot of things to do today, but I have put them off. I am going to go over to my mother's and stay after while. She does not have a computer, but if anything happens I will let you know! This is the first time in a long time I have been in a high risk area. :o

I'll talk to ya'll later,
Garrett

[isobar]

Stay safe Garrett, and anyone else in the high risk area. This is a mighty serious outbreak.

Cantore is in MO today ready to go chasing.

[Stormsfury]

3 PDS tornado watches in that area ... soundings from the area under the gun are frightening ... 2000 to 2500 j/kg CAPE ... along with shear profiles which suggest strong tornadoes are possible with the potential for long-track tornadoes as well ...

This is potentially looking to be 2003's largest tornado outbreak this season so far...