Arizona Monsoon Outlook?

[riverratmike]

Anyone know how active it will be in 2005?

[Aslkahuna]

Have you read my outlook on my homepage?

Steve

[riverratmike]

Have you read my outlook on my homepage?

Steve

Yeah I did but couldn't quite find a answer

[Aslkahuna]

Expected start date of 5-10 July with near to somewhat drier than normal rainfall and more severe than usual isn't good enough?

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Last I saw, the Mets up around Phoenix were calling for late start and drier than normal. However, down here start dates do not correlate well with effectiveness though post Niño monsoons tend to have strong severe weather events. There are not many people who have the cojonés to put out outlooks for the monsoon since Monsoon Forecasting is extremely tricky-the odds of getting 4 7's on a slot machine are better than consistently hitting a monsoon outlook because too many variables of which we know very little about are involved.

Steve

[riverratmike]

ok thanks for the info. Really looking forward to the start of the monsoon season here in LHC, AZ. 2004 sure was a good year for storms. Hope 2005 is just as good or better!

[Aslkahuna]

Last year may have been good for storms for you but it was crap for us down here- a pathetic monsoon if there ever was one.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Our 2004 wasn't "too" bad if I remember correct (got that CRS thing going)......we've got a "Mini Monsoon" pattern going right now!

Dennis

[riverratmike]

well thought maybe the monsoon season was starting early here in Lake Havasu City, AZ yesterday. Had 116 high temp 92 low and a big thunderstorm just NE of our town. Saw lightning also early that morning. Dew is at 54 currently right now. Forcast is 20% rain 115 high temp for today.

[PTrackerLA]

well thought maybe the monsoon season was starting early here in Lake Havasu City, AZ yesterday. Had 116 high temp 92 low and a big thunderstorm just NE of our town. Saw lightning also early that morning. Dew is at 54 currently right now. Forcast is 20% rain 115 high temp for today.

Wow can't imagine daily temps like that. Hottest temps I've ever experienced are the low 100's...hopefully it's a dry heat!

[weatherlover427]

I've been in 110 in Vegas and 113 in the summer of 1988 here, that was not fun at all.

[Aslkahuna]

We are having that June active period that I mentioned in my outlook that we would have and which would be close but no cigar as far as a start is concerned.

Steve

[riverratmike]

from http://www.havasunews.com

Get out your hip waders and rowboats, monsoon season is almost upon us.

Gov. Janet Napolitano declared this week as Arizona Severe Weather Awareness Week to help make people more conscious of the dangers posed by severe thunderstorms.

Andy Bailey, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Las Vegas, said monsoon season begins in the next few weeks and that it is important for people to remember the hazards that come along with the monsoons.

Thunderstorms, particularly destructive during the monsoon season, produce straight-line winds, deadly lightning and flash floods.


"Nationwide, more deaths occur due to flooding each year than from any other thunderstorm-related hazard," said Bailey. "Many of these casualties are a result of careless or unsuspecting motorists who attempt to navigate flooded roads."

The NWS has a motto for drivers approaching a flooded roadway, "Turn around . . . don't drown!"

The NWS provided several flash flood safety tips:

€ Roadbeds may be washed out under floodwaters. Never drive through flooded roadway.

€ Avoid areas already flooded, especially if the water is flowing fast. Do not attempt to cross flowing streams on foot.

€ Monitor the radio for vital weather information.

€ If flooding occurs, get to higher ground.

€ Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes, particularly during threatening conditions.

Unfortunately, Bailey said meteorologists haven't been able to predict monsoons like they have hurricanes in recent years. While computer modeling has been able to give forecasters an idea of how severe hurricane seasons are expected to be and which direction a developing hurricane may take, monsoons form too quickly for that kind of long-range forecasting.

Bailey said the monsoon season typically peaks between the July 4 weekend and the middle of August. However, he said there already has been one severe thunderstorm north of Lake Havasu City recently.

Along with the storms come lightning. An average of 67 people are killed each year from lightning strikes and many more are injured from lightning.

Bailey advises people not to wait for rain to seek shelter from lightning. The shelter should be completely enclosed, and if outdoors, find the lowest point as lightning usually hits the tallest object in the area.

People also should remember to avoid holding metal objects if there is lightning in the area and to stay away from water.

Storms aren't the only hazard for this area as the triple digit temperatures also bring their own risks.

Bailey advised people to remember the basic safety tips for living in the desert such as avoiding the sun during the hottest part of the day, seeking air-conditioned buildings and drinking lots of water and other non-alcoholic fluids to stay hydrated

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, the monsoon "season" has already started. NWS defines the season as running from June 15th through September 30th. The monsoon, of course, has not started. Earliest start date for the monsoon was June 17, 2000 and the latest July 25,1987.

Steve

[riverratmike]

here is an example of just how quickly and severe the monsoons here in Havasu can get.
http://www.riverratlife.com/forum/attac ... =321&stc=1

[riverratmike]

Actually, the monsoon "season" has already started. NWS defines the season as running from June 15th through September 30th. The monsoon, of course, has not started. Earliest start date for the monsoon was June 17, 2000 and the latest July 25,1987.

Steve

Steve, you say that the monsoon has already started or not?

[Aslkahuna]

The monsoon has NOT started, but the official monsoon "season" has. There's a difference.

Steve

[riverratmike]

The monsoon has NOT started, but the official monsoon "season" has. There's a difference.

Steve

ah ok I understand now. that one threw me off

[azskyman]

The previous few days have found us with isolated meandering storms mostly int he south Phoenix metro area and wandering northeast. For the most part, except in the vicinity of the storms, the DP levels were lower than 55 during the day and the storms themselves were either associated with other disturbances or in several cases, initiated as pyrocumulus from brush fires.

The upcoming week is drying out, and in fact this morning's lows in the 70's indicated that's already taking place...compared to a morning low of 92 just a few days ago.

Looks like your outlook of sometime after July 4th is good so far!

[riverratmike]

last week it looked like it was going to storm here in Havasu. One moring I did see rain falling in the distance and a stroke of lightning. I was suprized the some of the mositure has made it all the way over to western AZ.