Interesting 5:30 PM TWO=Possible developments?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Meaning=We need to still watch it because the models still develop something.

[Andrew92]

>>In which I can't not stop watching that intill those models stop showing development.

Matt,

Hit me with a translation if you don't mind.

Steve

How I read it:

If this low stays organized and over water, Matt won't be able to stop watching it until models no long show or indicate development.

-Andrew92

[skysummit]

Lemme see if I got this right...I just looked at a couple model animations, and the CMC and GFS has something forming in this area, moving north and then impacting somewhere along the Georgia/Carolinas coast? I'm just wondering if I was looking at the models correctly.

Can someone tell me?

[vbhoutex]

Lemme see if I got this right...I just looked at a couple model animations, and the CMC and GFS has something forming in this area, moving north and then impacting somewhere along the Georgia/Carolinas coast? I'm just wondering if I was looking at the models correctly.

Can someone tell me?

You are correct, that is what they have been showing for the last two days.

[skysummit]

Ok, cool! I just wanted to make sure I was actually looking at them right.

Thanks!

[x-y-no]

Even though the area the models have been hinting at for a while now is the trough/wave nexus moving into the Bahamas ... I really don't buy that this will develop. I doubt that the ULL will back off fast enough to allow it. I still think this will be no more than a moderate rain event for parts of Florida, Georgia and SC.


That area off Honduras is intriguing,though. And it's not something I saw coming at all. If it's still holding together as a good blob of convection over water tomorrow, it has a shot.

Something to watch, anyway.

Jan

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

System off Honduras is starting to look good. Now if it stays over the water, and doesn't move to far North until that strong shear abates; we might have something here.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The history of Bret

1999 Hurricane Bret
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1993 tropical storm Bret
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1987 Tropical storm Bret
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1981 tropical storm Bret
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would also definitely watch the area off of Honduras. If it can stay over water, it may develop into something. Right now I don't know how well it would intensify versus Arlene, but we MAY very well have something in the Atlantic to track in a couple days if it:

1) Stays over water.

2) Stays persistent in its thunderstorm activity and organization.

-Andrew92

[skysummit]

Convection is warming around the center, but now circulation is even evident on enhanced imagery

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AT THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS NE FL/SE GA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH AXIS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH JUST A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE JAX CWA OVER MARION COUNTY. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
REMAINDER OF AFTN/EVNG WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.

WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA
MOVES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH GFS AND CANADIAN GENERATING A CLOSED
SFC LOW WHICH MOVES UP THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE WEEKEND. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...
NAM/UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS...MAINTAINS AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH CROSSES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH RECENT HISTORY OF GFS
SPINNING UP SPURIOUS LOWS...HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARDS THE INVERTED
TROUGH SOLUTION.

AS SUCH...EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY
POPS ON FRIDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. POPS TAPER
PRETTY SHARPLY TO ISOLATED OVER SE GEORGIA WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOWER TO RECOVER. ON SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER
ALL OF FLORIDA WITH GOOD CHANCE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. POPS DECREASE A
BIT ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BUT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE KEEPING POPS AOB NORMAL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WITH LOWER MAXES EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE
MET GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE TO WARRANT NEAR
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...MORE CHANGES IN THE MARINE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WITH
THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE
REGION AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM
SOLUTION AND CAP WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS AOB 8 FT FOR NOW. LOW
LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT MORE SELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FRI-SUN AND SOME MINOR
BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 90 70 86 / 10 20 20 50
SSI 75 86 75 82 / 10 20 20 50
JAX 69 87 72 83 / 10 30 30 60
SGJ 75 85 76 82 / 10 50 40 60
GNV 69 86 70 86 / 20 60 40 60
OCF 69 85 70 86 / 20 60 50 60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CAMP
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY