6-23-05 10:30 PM EDT TWO, Excitement is almost gone!

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:29 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on June 23, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms cover a broad area from the
Florida Peninsula southeastward through the Bahamas. This activity
is associated with an upper-level low over southern Florida and a
surface trough that extends from the central Caribbean Sea
northward into the eastern Bahamas. Upper level winds are not
currently favorable for tropical cyclone development. However...
rainy and squally conditions are likely to continue in this area as
the surface trough moves northwestward over the next day or two.

Shower activity in the western Caribbean Sea near the coast of
Honduras has decreased this evening...and this system is likely to
move inland before significant development can occur.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

Forecaster Franklin

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:29 pm

blah!

Swimdude · #3 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:31 pm

Ugh! This keeps happening. It's like the NHC is poking us with sticks, making us jump around and get all excited... And then smashing a brick over our heads.

This update, my friends, is the brick.

:grrr:

mobilebay · #4 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:32 pm

I don't think the excitement is gone at all. Remember, three of the models GFS, Canadian, and NAM/ETA all develop a low north of Cuba within 48 hours. I think something may end up developing before it is all said and done. Notice how they say upper level winds are CURRENTLY unfavorable for development.

Scorpion · #5 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:32 pm

More of the same :roll:

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:36 pm

Watch this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

100 miles or so offshore from the Nicaragua/Honduras border,
you can see evidence of a mid-level circulation. The shear from the
evil ULL is killing the convection off, and the NHC says it's going to move inland.

We'll see what the models say tomorrow.

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:38 pm

mobilebay wrote:I don't think the excitement is gone at all. Remember, three of the models GFS, Canadian, and NAM/ETA all develop a low north of Cuba within 48 hours. I think something may end up developing before it is all said and done. Notice how they say upper level winds are CURRENTLY unfavorable for development.

The NHC seems to know there stuff :wink:

It's early in the year be patient..

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:39 pm

It's only June folks.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:It's only June folks.

EXACTLY!!

mobilebay · #10 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:40 pm

Swimdude wrote:Ugh! This keeps happening. It's like the NHC is poking us with sticks, making us jump around and get all excited... And then smashing a brick over our heads.

This update, my friends, is the brick.

In defense of the NHC. They are at least explaining what they are thinking. In years past with the current setup we would have got... Tropical storm Formation is not expected through Saturday...

#11 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:It's only June folks.

But my brown lawn is telling me it's August!

:roll:

------------
Michael

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:42 pm

Watch that area north of Cuba where all those models are forecasting something over the next few days(Cold or warm core is the quastion)...As for the western Caribbean system the shear is increasing at 10 knots per 3 hours. It is not favable...But I think it should stay just off shore. What I mean by this is the MLC is not likely to move on shore. But the tropical wave with the system will move westward. So I'm gong to stick with the agreement with and the computer models.

Also the Caribbean has a powerful jetstreak killing off development(40 knots) That moves into the western Atlantic. That flows up the front side of the ULL.

I would watch that system southeast of Beatriz. :wink:

Swimdude · #13 Postby **Swimdude** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:52 pm

mobilebay wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Ugh! This keeps happening. It's like the NHC is poking us with sticks, making us jump around and get all excited... And then smashing a brick over our heads.

This update, my friends, is the brick.

In defense of the NHC. They are at least explaining what they are thinking. In years past with the current setup we would have got... Tropical storm Formation is not expected through Saturday...

Oh i'm not insulting the NHC. I'm insulting Mother Nature! :lol:

mobilebay · #14 Postby **mobilebay** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:01 pm

Swimdude wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Ugh! This keeps happening. It's like the NHC is poking us with sticks, making us jump around and get all excited... And then smashing a brick over our heads.

This update, my friends, is the brick.

In defense of the NHC. They are at least explaining what they are thinking. In years past with the current setup we would have got... Tropical storm Formation is not expected through Saturday...

Oh i'm not insulting the NHC. I'm insulting Mother Nature!

I was not trying to say you was insulting them. I'm just thankful they are breaking down these systems this year. We have not had that many one liners this year.

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:30 pm

*Yawn*

Radar · #16 Postby **Radar** » Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:37 pm

I know it is only June but why does it feel like August? I think the tease Arlene got us going too soon this is the let down phase... :roll:

6-23-05 10:30 PM EDT TWO, Excitement is almost gone!

6-23-05 10:30 PM EDT TWO, Excitement is almost gone!

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