I few things to think about.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The models been hinting at forming a low pressure just to the East of Florida for the past 3 or so days. What kind of low pressure do we have here. In what do you all think?


In whats the chances that our friend the upper low could get down to the surface. It happens with Kyle of 2002/Peter 2003/ and many more. What I'm getting at is near the core of the upper low the upper winds appears to be favable for cyclone formation. In with the fact that it has started to fire some strong convection over that center. With nice outflow to the northeast. It stands the best chance. Many a storm has formed this way. If this where to stay around for a few days. Things can happen.

Or a second possible chance of this developing. Is the upper low moves out while the area of convection north of Cuba. Spins a cirualton down as it moves slowly northward/northwestward. In which case many of the models agree with this. Or if the Ull doe's not move up but stays and place in the storm cirles around it. Kind of like tropical storm Bill of 2003.

Those are my thinking of possible cyclone formation.

[weatherwindow]

after reading the MWD from TAFB and the melbourne AFD, i will vote for your second option. the models are coming into agreement on the ULL moving slowly nnw into the GOM. there is also a consensus on the bahamiam trough/low moving between north and northwest. of course, the gfs is the most aggressive..surprise, surprise. its low follows the midlevel steering and moves north. the remainder of the models agree, in principle,
with your second option and move a weaker low or strong trough northwest into central fla......enjoy your discussions, as always............rich

[Thunder44]

Matt, you might want to edit your title