Recon Scheduled off Jacksonville!

[Thunder44]

For tomorrow:

NOUS42 KNHC 241345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 24 JUN 2005

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUN 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF JACKSONVILLE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 25/1530Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 30.0N 78.0W D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Hurricanehink]

Whoa, things are getting interesting!

[Guest]

Really wont find anything to worry about from a tropical standpoint, but will find that gales will be on the increase due to squally weather moving north into the carolinas, at best maybe depression classification before moving on shore.

[Stormcenter]

Is this thing still moving ENE or NE?

If that's the case then it's a fish.

[HURAKAN]

At the 11:30 TWO they will probably mention that a RECON is scheduled, if necessary.

[gatorcane]

I don't understand why they would waste a recon flight on this thing...it has very little chance of even becoming a T.S let along a hurricane. I would save the money for August - October.

[Radar]

I don't understand why they would waste a recon flight on this thing...it has very little chance of even becoming a T.S let along a hurricane. I would save the money for August - October.

Well, you are right there is probably little chance of it becoming anything major but they recon it so they dont have any unexpected surprises. The "money" will be there no matter how many storms we have.

[Thunder44]

I don't understand why they would waste a recon flight on this thing...it has very little chance of even becoming a T.S let along a hurricane. I would save the money for August - October.

I think they believe it has more than a little chance of developing and they schedule flights to so they flight staff can have more time to prepare for it. I don't it costs much to schedule a flight, and they would probably be critized for not sending one in, if it looks like it's developing.

[jax]

way too much sheer....
just a rain event...

[Lowpressure]

way too much sheer....
just a rain event...

First TS this year had just as much shear and ate dry air it's whole life and did o.k. Never rule out a system sitting in or near the Gulf Stream.

[jax]

worst sheer didn't start untill the TS was formed...

this "blob" has got it's hands full and doesn't have
a surface low established yet... Look at the attached
Water Vapor loop below....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

starting to suck very dry air as we speek...

JMHO... not a chance...

[Dean4Storms]

The convection firing east of the Bahamas this AM looks suspicious and the ULL is actually aiding in divergence/outflow aloft. This would be the area of any TC development if you ask me, something to keep an eye on.

[jrod]

The part of the system over the Central Bahamas that flared up would be the best spot to watch for tropical development IMO. The area over me(central Florida) is fizzling out and dry air is getting in.

I still havent seen any pressure drops with this system.

[Lowpressure]

It is quite hostile around the system in what is a rather complex upper air scenario. Jax is right about a chunk of dry air moving in from the SW. We will see. Water vapor loop looked as if there was a LLC trying to form due East of Miami, it almost went due north and fizzled.

[stormcloud]

it has very little chance of even becoming a T.S let along a hurricane

It could become a subtropical system.

[jrod]

Those iffy computer models are showing much more favorable upper level winds in the next day or two. If that happens I dont see why a LLC wound not establish itself.

[dhweather]

There are still too many "ifs"

If the ULL gets out of the way
If a ridge build in
If it survives the shear


As usual, Hurry up and wait.

[Brent]

There are still too many "ifs"

If the ULL gets out of the way
If a ridge build in
If it survives the shear


As usual, Hurry up and wait.

LOL... sounds like June.

[dhweather]

There are still too many "ifs"

If the ULL gets out of the way
If a ridge build in
If it survives the shear


As usual, Hurry up and wait.

LOL... sounds like June.

Man, I swear. But July is only a week away!