Interesting Accuweather Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion
POSTED: June 23, 2005 9:23 p.m.


TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND

We have an interesting set up evolving from the eastern Gulf across the southern half of Florida and southeast into Cuba and Hispaniola. The two main features we are watching are a weak upper level low pressure area over south Florida and a tropical wave between 77 west and 75 west oriented southwest to northeast over eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas. Model output is showing the weak upper level low drifting east and splitting. One piece heads northeast and fades away while a second piece drifts back to the west or northwest. The tropical wave will also split, perhaps in response to the upper air feature splitting. The southern and strongest part will move westward toward Central America while the northern part moves northward. The northward moving part will interact with the upper level low tonight and tomorrow producing clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the central and northern Bahamas eastern Cuba and the southern two thirds of Florida. As the upper level low splits the stronger part of the feature will move into the eastern Gulf and that might start to vent the surface feature as it moves northward tomorrow night and Saturday. That venting could help the surface feature organize into a more low pressure area on Saturday and Saturday night. Many computer models are taking this low and moving it north into the Carolina coast on Sunday. There is some concern that as the upper level low splits and the strongest part moves west the strong shear currently over the region will relax and that could allow this system to become an organized tropical system. All this is very uncertain given all that has to happen. Water temperatures are near or above 80 degrees in the concerned area. So, that will not be a real concern.

Elsewhere in the tropics the southern most part of the tropical wave stated above is moving west and is already enhancing shower and thunderstorm development east of Nicaragua and Honduras. Evening surface pressures in the region are down to near 1009 millibars. This feature will move westward and should bring rain and thunderstorms to Honduras and Nicaragua tomorrow and into the weekend. There is some chance the system could spin up a more concentrated area of low pressure just north of Honduras during the next 24-36 hours. Some model output is showing this. But the feature is also then forecasted to move into central America Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical waves along 28 west, 50 west and 66 west show no important features and are not in a favorable situation for development during the next few days.

[mobilebay]

No offense to Accuweather, but our Amateur and Pro Met's have already said every thing they said . I don't think they are adding anymore insight than I've already read or posted here. I'm telling you, we have some very smart Amateurs and Pro's on this Board and are very lucky to have them. JMHO. Thanks for posting though.

[HURAKAN]

I agree with you, what I find interesting is that they are almost sure that something will develop.

[KatDaddy]

I second that statement. Looks like Joe B is incorrect but who would have thought he would be incorrect by his own organization

[mobilebay]

I agree with you, what I find interesting is that they are almost sure that something will develop.

They always are! But you can bet they won't bring that up on any Discussions, when they are wrong. Don't let them get one correct, because you can believe it will be in your face.

[Terry]

And Mike Watkins' video and the rest of our guys here do a much better job of explaining!

[LaBreeze]

Interesting, but we'll have to wait and see.

[Scorpion]

I trust Accuweather when they say tropical formation is imminent. JB rarely busts.

[jrod]

Man accuweather sure likes to fill up space when they write their forecasts.


The pressures arent falling yet in the southern Florida yet, though I think that is about to happen in the next 12 hours and Saturday morning we will have a depression to talk about.

[weatherwindow]

I agree with you, what I find interesting is that they are almost sure that something will develop.

They always are! But you can bet they won't bring that up on any Discussions, when they are wrong. Don't let them get one correct, because you can believe it will be in your face.

.....................amen to that, mobilebay....i subscribed until the recent campaign to hobble the nws..and i clearly remember that every prognostication was worded with the assuredness normally associated with tablets coming down from the mountain. as you have alluded to, i never did hear an acknowledgement of a busted forecast. all in all, JB and crew have the luxury of being wrong without having to explain themselves or facing public scrutiny at every turn......that said, i tend to think that most of the energy will move northwest into the fla peninsula without significant development...strong trough with 20-25 kts winds offshore(as per the TAFB discussion)...................rich

[dhweather]

No offense to Accuweather, but our Amateur and Pro Met's have already said every thing they said . I don't think they are adding anymore insight than I've already read or posted here. I'm telling you, we have some very smart Amateurs and Pro's on this Board and are very lucky to have them. JMHO. Thanks for posting though.

Maybe Accuweather gets their information here.

[jax]

looks like accuweather was on to something here....

[cyclonaut]

I thought the legendary Joe B. claimed that we will see action in the GOM end of this week

Some mumbo jumbo about a trough split & a TW & the pattern is like 54 when Alicia hit TX.

& now its the SE

Joe B. is up to the plate..Here comes the pitch by Mother Nature..Joe B swings for the fences as always but STRIKE!

What a curve by mama nature!

[dhweather]

She could throw a fastball down the pipe and he'd miss it.

[Stormcenter]

I thought the legendary Joe B. claimed that we will see action in the GOM end of this week

Some mumbo jumbo about a trough split & a TW & the pattern is like 54 when Alicia hit TX.

& now its the SE

Joe B. is up to the plate..Here comes the pitch by Mother Nature..Joe B swings for the fences as always but STRIKE!

What a curve by mama nature!

He did not say this week but maybe next week.

[cyclonaut]

NO, he said end of this week.

[dhweather]

NO, he said end of this week.

You're right - he said THIS WEEK.