94L is up again

[PTrackerLA]

It does look like it would be a hybrid system if it forms. Probably just a rain maker for the east coast though.

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait for the 11:30 AM EDT TWO to see what we can expect.

[Guest]

>>You can have gales, without a tropical storm existing, and I said at best this thing could get depression status before landfalling in the carolinas

I must have missed that thread, sorry. That's kind of what I was thinking too, but a couple of the models are still messing around at 500mb indicating the possibility of at least the presence of a vort max at landfall. The payoff - if nothing happens, I'll resurrect this thread and acknowledge a good call was made by you.

>>Something that I have learned over the years in not to bet on tropical cyclones.

LMAO. I don't either (at least not for money).

Steve

I'm with you bro... its just a wait and see game, everyone in the lina's better get out the umbrella.

[gkrangers]

Lets wait for the 11:30 AM EDT TWO to see what we can expect.

My prediction is "An areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas..blah blah blah....upper level winds are unfavorable for development.

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday."

[HURAKAN]

Lets wait for the 11:30 AM EDT TWO to see what we can expect.

My prediction is "An areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas..blah blah blah....upper level winds are unfavorable for development.

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday."

I would include, "A Reconnaissance Mission has been scheduled for ......., if necessary."

[gkrangers]

Lets wait for the 11:30 AM EDT TWO to see what we can expect.

My prediction is "An areas of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas..blah blah blah....upper level winds are unfavorable for development.

Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday."

I would include, "A Reconnaissance Mission has been scheduled for ......., if necessary."

.."But we really just scheduled it to get all the weenies hot and bothered, and we'll cancel the mission this evening..."

[cycloneye]

[dhweather]

The tropics are full of surprises and betting on Cyclones may not be a good thing.

Isn't that the truth.

I'm sure the boys in Vegas wouldn't even consider putting odds out on the tropics!

[cycloneye]

Still I haved not seen any model guidance for 94L since the invest was up again this morning.Scott VA haved you seen the 94L model imput anywhere?

[Scorpion]

Lol kinda reminds me of how Frances looked when it got sheared.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a center but it is at 25.5/74.5 also it appears to be moving just to the east of north. That could also because of it trying to develop closer to the convection. The outflow looks good. I think this maybe could be a system very soon.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[dhweather]

Looking at WV loops, it appears this is not going to develop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Dry air is getting sucked in from the W/SW

[Trader Ron]

I see a center but it is at 25.5/74.5 also it appears to be moving just to the east of north. That could also because of it trying to develop closer to the convection. The outflow looks good. I think this maybe could be a system very soon.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

You see a "center"? By center, do you mean "Eye"? If you see a center/eye, i'm making an eye appointment. No pun intended.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ULL is center near 28 north/79 west it is moving northward. While shear is coming up its base. But still appears to be a low level low developing near 25.5/74.5 moving to the northeast. With pop convection trying to form.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a center but it is at 25.5/74.5 also it appears to be moving just to the east of north. That could also because of it trying to develop closer to the convection. The outflow looks good. I think this maybe could be a system very soon.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

You see a "center"? By center, do you mean "Eye"? If you see a center/eye, i'm making an eye appointment. No pun intended.

No there is no eye. In the center to this is very broad.

[Trader Ron]

Mr Shear is at work.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If you call 10 to 15 knot shear strong then maybe
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also the upper low is moving northward away from this.

Also it is decreasing 10 knots over it while 30 to the south.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[dhweather]

I see a center but it is at 25.5/74.5 also it appears to be moving just to the east of north. That could also because of it trying to develop closer to the convection. The outflow looks good. I think this maybe could be a system very soon.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

You see a "center"? By center, do you mean "Eye"? If you see a center/eye, i'm making an eye appointment. No pun intended.

No there is no eye. In the center to this is very broad.

Matt, I think its a verbiage thing. Take an extra second and say
"center of circulation" on posts like this, and help minimine confusion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050624 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050624 1800 050625 0600 050625 1800 050626 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 74.0W 29.5N 74.6W 31.9N 75.7W 34.2N 76.5W
BAMM 27.0N 74.0W 29.2N 74.9W 31.2N 76.1W 33.0N 76.8W
A98E 27.0N 74.0W 29.3N 74.0W 31.7N 73.8W 33.5N 73.4W
LBAR 27.0N 74.0W 29.2N 73.8W 31.0N 73.8W 32.3N 73.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050626 1800 050627 1800 050628 1800 050629 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.2N 77.2W 39.1N 76.4W 41.3N 73.4W 43.4N 66.3W
BAMM 34.6N 77.4W 37.2N 77.5W 39.8N 76.1W 43.0N 70.7W
A98E 34.8N 73.2W 36.4N 74.1W 38.2N 73.3W 41.6N 66.2W
LBAR 33.1N 73.0W 33.7N 72.2W 34.1N 72.4W 35.3N 72.0W
SHIP 47KTS 44KTS 36KTS 28KTS
DSHP 41KTS 29KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 74.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 73.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Finnally after all day waiting the model guidance is out.IT's moving a bit fast northward at 14 kts.Ship has it as a storm in 36 hours.

[Brent]

BAMM and BAMD show a threat to Eastern North Carolina and then up into VA/MD/DE. LBAR and A98E have it missing the U.S.