5:30 TWO: Slightly Better Organized, Recon Mentioned

[Thunder44]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[dhweather]

if necessary....



It's not.


shear shear shear the low
every single time
I did not intend for this
to even rhyme.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is down to 10 knots over the system with it decreasing. Also look to the south.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Thunder44]

if necessary....



It's not.


shear shear shear the low
every single time
I did not intend for this
to even rhyme.

There shear has relaxed, which why upper level winds are "marginally favorable" now. Have you noticed the tremendous outflow on the north side?

[Guest]

if necessary....



It's not.


shear shear shear the low
every single time
I did not intend for this
to even rhyme.

Looks like the rate at which its moving its like the song they play at the Braves games after a homerun is hit....

Its gone, Its gone, Its gone,

Gone like a freight train

Gone like a airplane

Itsa gone, Its gone Its gone

It aint never coming back....

Something like that.

[Brent]

It's a wait and see on recon, but it seems to have gotten a bit better organized today. Assuming that trend continues, I don't see why they wouldn't go out.

[TS Zack]

I don't see this becoming anything... This ULL is racing inland tonight and still hasn't turned back West. We need to wait for the Ridge to build West to push it back inland.

I am thinking they may cancel the mission tomorrow. It doesn't look to promising on Satellite and the Surface Low is over the Bahamas, many miles away from any thunderstorm activity.

Also, with the system forming in the EPAC, the GOM will not be favorable anymore due to the outflow from that system. Not to mention all the Low Level Energy it will take from the GOM.

[krysof]

Upper lower winds are still very unfavorable in a large part of the area because it's June. I see things rapidly becoming favorable as soon as August approaches. Very early in August most likely, and TC just forming throughout the month. So much activity that it will be hard to track everything. If there were three or four systems at once, there would be too much activity to keep track.

[Thunder44]

I don't see this becoming anything... This ULL is racing inland tonight and still hasn't turned back West. We need to wait for the Ridge to build West to push it back inland.

I am thinking they may cancel the mission tomorrow. It doesn't look to promising on Satellite and the Surface Low is over the Bahamas, many miles away from any thunderstorm activity.

Also, with the system forming in the EPAC, the GOM will not be favorable anymore due to the outflow from that system. Not to mention all the Low Level Energy it will take from the GOM.

I doubt the EPAC system will have any influence. Outflow on the north and east side of this system should be sufficent enough for development.