10:30 TWO: Surface Low Forms!

[Thunder44]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricanehink]

HMMMMMMMMM.....

[cycloneye]

I noticed that they didn't put the words (IF NECESSARY) about having recon so I asume that they are going to investigate tommorow afternoon.

[dhweather]

I'd noticed that too Luis - unless it gets really disorganized overnight,
they'll be flying out tomorrow.

[x-y-no]

I don't know ... I just don't see it happening right now. It just doesn't look to me like this is getting its act together fast enough. There's no close surface low that I can see, and with that upper low not moving off too quickly, it's going to keep that displaced convection at least until it makes the turn west under the building ridge. So maybe it gets a closed circulation and starts wrapping up the convection at that point, but it's going to be over Georgia/South Carolina before it has any hope of becoming a TS, IMHO.

Now that's not saing there won't be some pretty rough weather in coastal SC tomorrow.

Jan

[cycloneye]

I don't know ... I just don't see it happening right now. It just doesn't look to me like this is getting its act together fast enough. There's no close surface low that I can see, and with that upper low not moving off too quickly, it's going to keep that displaced convection at least until it makes the turn west under the building ridge. So maybe it gets a closed circulation and starts wrapping up the convection at that point, but it's going to be over Georgia/South Carolina before it has any hope of becoming a TS, IMHO.

Now that's not saing there won't be some pretty rough weather in coastal SC tomorrow.

Jan

Jan at TWO Stewart says it is a small surface low and that is why maybe you can't locate it.

[Brent]

I smell Bret in the VERY near future.

[cyclonaut]

Yeah maybe Brent I mean Bret is around the corner.

[Thunder44]

I wonder how Stewart was able to determine there was small low on the surface. There don't seem to be many obs around there. Ships reports?

[dhweather]

Shameless plug for my poll!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=65238

[stormcloud]

Seems radar/sfc reports show another weak low near Key West Fl.

[dhweather]

Seems radar/sfc reports show another weak low near Key West Fl.

It does appear that way:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[Swimdude]

Yay for Atlantic catching up in the race vs. the EPAC. Hehehe...

[sponger]

Ah all the doubters! Can't wait for that 2:00 recon report!

[wxman57]

Looks weaker this evening than earlier today. Convection really diminishing as of 10:30pm CDT. Just plotted ship/buoy/sfc reports in the region and don't see much there.

[jax]

none of the models suggest anything below
1006mb.... just a rainmaker... fast moving
rain maker is all... pull out the slickes for a
wet weekend SC/NC

[Brent]

none of the models suggest anything below
1006mb.... just a rainmaker... fast moving
rain maker is all... pull out the slickes for a
wet weekend SC/NC

Well so far 2005 looks like 2004... most of the landfalls occur on the weekend. Charley(2nd landfall), Frances, Gaston, Jeanne, Arlene...

[krysof]

that's because TC have to work during the week, and they get off at work for the weekend, lol

[dixiebreeze]

It's been waxing and waning all day, but I expect to see it waxing by the 5:30 a.m. TWO.

[hurricanefreak1988]

I hope this is more than just rain. We always get stuck with the annoying rainmakers. Floyd was the last big thing here in Fayetteville. Come on Bret, give me some action.