94L is up again

[SouthernWx]

Sure it does. It would be via a combination of tropical and baroclinic processes. What happens is that heat from the wave entrains into the cooler center storm and warm the atmosphere converting it to a hybrid system. Don't be shocked if there's a Tropical Storm moving ashore in Georgia or South Carolina Sunday afternoon .

Steve

I agree wholeheartedly Steve. The waters are warm in the Bahamas and warming in the Gulf Stream....it won't surprise me any to see a tropical storm moving onshore somewhere between Florida and North Carolina late this weekend.

PW

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I've been personally thinking that if this system develops (and that is a big if still), it would be a Bob like storms track wise; what with the second short wave currently over the Northern Plains heading towards the coast early this upcoming week, which will force the Bermuda High a bit further off shore and set up a SW return flow (at all level of the atmosphere).

With that stated I do not see it being anything more than a minimum cane, or strong tropical storm, at peak strength. After all the environment is just not right for a Cat 2, or higher, off the East Coast this early; even my minimum cane projection is stretching it I fear


Hybridstorm_November2001

[george_r_1961]

It looks to be moving a little east of north this evening. Not sure if its just a jog or what. Whatever the case IMO landfall will be a bit further north, probably near Cape Fear. Just a wild guess. It will run into the ridge to the north and get deflected to the NW. Doubt if this will be a fish. As far as intensity goes IMO it will be a moderate TS

[dhweather]

Unless the ULL gets out of the way quickly, I just don't see it developing
into much.

[SouthernWx]

looking at that model output it almost looks like it could almost miss the coast. What im trying to understand is why people are saying a GA/SC landfall if those models are showing at LEAST a central NC landfall.

Those NHC track models aren't as accurate or useful once a system is north of the deep tropics. In this situation, I look at the overall forecast synoptic pattern....why I value the GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF far more at this stage in the game.

The GFS is progging a building high pressure ridge north of the system, so an expected turn to the northwest or possibly even WNW should be expected....as the system skirts around the ridge.

We're somewhat fortunate this is late June and not late August (re: climatology; cooler sst's)....or we might witness a rapidly deepening hurricane in this type of pattern.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

those NHC models are designed for more barotropic situations (little vertical shear; thus, little horizontal temp gradient). Not the case here; thus, they are of very little value and are not used for these types of systems

[mobilebay]

those NHC models are designed for more barotropic situations (little vertical shear; thus, little horizontal temp gradient). Not the case here; thus, they are of very little value and are not used for these types of systems

derek I've noticed that too. They do very well with Cape Verde sysytems until they reach the gulf.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At the rate it is movng it will be inland with in 24 hours. With no T numbers and with out the quickscats showing any signs of a closed LLC. I'm starting to think Bret will do what 3 out of 4 Brets do. Which is form in August.

[HURAKAN]

At the rate it is movng it will be inland with in 24 hours. With no T numbers and with out the quickscats showing any signs of a closed LLC. I'm starting to think Bret will do what 3 out of 4 Brets do. Which is form in August.

And what about the 31 days between June and August known as the month of July.

[SouthernWx]

At the rate it is movng it will be inland with in 24 hours. With no T numbers and with out the quickscats showing any signs of a closed LLC. I'm starting to think Bret will do what 3 out of 4 Brets do. Which is form in August.

Even if this system fails to develop, I wouldn't count on Bret waiting until August to appear....mid-late July could IMO be active.

While I posted an hurricane season prediction of 14/9/4.....that was my being conservative. I won't be surprised to see this season take off into high gear early and end up similar to 1995 (when 19 named storms occurred). If my theory is correct, we'll be to name "E" by the end of July (Erin in 1995).

PW

[HURAKAN]

At the rate it is movng it will be inland with in 24 hours. With no T numbers and with out the quickscats showing any signs of a closed LLC. I'm starting to think Bret will do what 3 out of 4 Brets do. Which is form in August.

Even if this system fails to develop, I wouldn't count on Bret waiting until August to appear....mid-late July could IMO be active.

While I posted an hurricane season prediction of 14/9/4.....that was my being conservative. I won't be surprised to see this season take off into high gear early and end up similar to 1995 (when 19 named storms occurred). If my theory is correct, we'll be to name "E" by the end of July (Erin in 1995).

PW

<----- MY HOPES FOR THIS SEASON!

[cycloneye]

First visible pic shows the low just west of the convection.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050625 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050625 1200 050626 0000 050626 1200 050627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.8N 76.3W 32.4N 77.7W 34.7N 78.7W 36.6N 79.5W
BAMM 29.8N 76.3W 32.0N 77.6W 33.9N 78.7W 35.3N 79.5W
A98E 29.8N 76.3W 31.8N 77.4W 34.1N 78.0W 36.1N 77.9W
LBAR 29.8N 76.3W 31.9N 77.4W 33.9N 78.1W 35.6N 78.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050627 1200 050628 1200 050629 1200 050630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.1N 79.9W 41.1N 79.7W 45.1N 74.8W 48.0N 65.2W
BAMM 36.6N 80.2W 39.4N 80.6W 42.9N 77.3W 45.6N 69.7W
A98E 37.7N 77.9W 41.5N 79.0W 45.9N 73.4W 46.6N 53.9W
LBAR 36.8N 77.9W 38.9N 76.0W 40.0N 72.5W 40.8N 66.8W
SHIP 34KTS 32KTS 31KTS 25KTS
DSHP 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.8N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 28.0N LONM12 = 75.0W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 74.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


They barely go above tropical storm strengh.



About the grafic refresh it to get the latest tracks at 12:45z.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050626 1200 050627 0000 050627 1200 050628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.1N 76.2W 36.8N 76.5W 38.0N 76.4W 39.1N 76.1W
BAMM 35.1N 76.2W 36.4N 76.8W 37.6N 77.2W 38.7N 77.3W
A98E 35.1N 76.2W 37.6N 76.5W 39.2N 75.6W 40.3N 74.0W
LBAR 35.1N 76.2W 37.1N 76.4W 38.7N 76.4W 39.9N 75.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 1200 050630 1200 050701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.3N 75.3W 42.8N 70.2W 43.9N 61.1W 44.5N 51.8W
BAMM 40.1N 77.1W 43.3N 72.9W 45.2N 64.2W 46.7N 54.1W
A98E 40.8N 72.5W 40.6N 71.1W 42.9N 64.7W 46.4N 50.4W
LBAR 40.8N 74.6W 42.2N 69.5W 41.2N 63.1W 38.6N 58.8W
SHIP 24KTS 23KTS 22KTS 17KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.1N LONCUR = 76.2W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 32.1N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 29.8N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



They still are doing model plots for this?

[dhweather]

McCoy to Kirk - "It's dead Jim"

[Steve]

>>I'm with you bro... its just a wait and see game, everyone in the lina's better get out the umbrella.

Good call Fred.

Looks like we got an unclassified subtropical depression which was less than a minimal tropical storm and more than a surge of tropical moisture. Part II of the wave (the southern end) is flaring up today. I'm not sure if anything's coming out of it or not, but nothing would have anyway until mid-week. We can keep tracking to see what happens. Last week's ECMWF runs had it up near the UT Coast on Wed. Later runs backed off and put it in the Vera Cruz area of coastal Mexico. I think the big key is whether or not anything gets cranking on the EPAC side. If not, there is SOME energy to work with.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Well with Calvin apparently on the way in the EPAC, there may not be much energy to work with. Also lloks like our ridge will be getting stronger again by mid week in the TX area. We could sure use the rain!!!

[senorpepr]

Invest (N/A / 94L) (26/1800Z)
Position: 35.7°N 76.2°W (45 miles NW from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina)
Movement: N at 16 mph
Winds: 25 mph
Pressure: 1016 mb / 30''
Dvorak Est: Too Weak

[drezee]

The LLC is now East of Eliz City (winds have turned due N at 20mph). It is tracking NNE and will be back over water in a couple of hours. Water temps are too low...

[drezee]

699
ABNT20 KNHC 262113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED INLAND THIS MORNING IS BECOMING
LESS WELL-DEFINED AS IT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN