0530 AM TWO

[senorpepr]

ABNT20 KNHC 250901
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN
EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ALONG
AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE CAROLINAS
..SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA TO EASTERN
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[mobilebay]

Maybe when we get daytime visible we will be able to find that surface low. Man that thing has got to be small. Also it has to be tucked under that concentrated area of convection.

[Thunder44]

If you look at IR-4 sat loop of the West Atlantic, you maybe able to make out a little spin near 30N 75W. You may see the low clouds on the SW side of thunderstorm cluster going inward a little bit. Really need a close-up to tell for sure.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html