Where is this surface low?

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 1:58 am

I have looked all over the Bahamas and surrounding area and can't find a single hint of a Surface low. I have looked at observations with no luck. I'm not second guessing the Hurricane Center but I can't find it.
However, what I did find was interesting. I found what looks like to me like a surface circulation between Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. Check it out. Click on the square over the Yucatan. I could not direct link. It's under GOES East IR and VIS. Floater. It is now on the Southern coast of eastern Cuba!

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 2:00 am

That area between Jamaica and Cuba. Looks to be the must promising area at this moment. The factor that could stop development over the short term is eastern Cuba.

mobilebay · #3 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:29 am

Does anyone else see this feature?

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:44 am

That appears to be an MLC that was noted earlier near eastern Cuba. According to TPC last night, the small surface low should be in that blob of convection NE of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas.

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:50 am

I see it.. Unfortunately at 4am it's hard to tell if it is at the surface according to sattelite alone.. When the visable become avaible maybe then we can verify if a LLC is forming.. Qscat should be coming out soon as well.. It's so small and surface obs are limited so we will have to wait a bit.. It's very difficult to verify what exactly is going on at the surface with IR at night..even IR-2 doesn't help much this morning..

Paul

mobilebay · #6 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 3:52 am

Aquawind wrote:I see it.. Unfortunately at 4am it's hard to tell if it is at the surface according to sattelite alone.. When the visable become avaible maybe then we can verify if a LLC is forming.. Qscat should be coming out soon as well.. It's so small and surface obs are limited so we will have to wait a bit.. It's very difficult to verify what exactly is going on at the surface with IR at night..even IR-2 doesn't help much this morning..

Paul

Thanks for responding. I thought I was going crazy.

#7 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 5:20 am

Paul[/quote]
Thanks for responding. I thought I was going crazy.

[/quote]

Need more coffee :lol:

Robert

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:53 am

I want to know how the NHC can see it though... especially at night. If it's small, someone here ought to be able to pick it out. I'm guessing they got a ship or buoy report from somewhere because it sure isn't obvious.

Thunder44 · #9 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 8:56 am

Take a look at latest quickscat image:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

sunflowerkist · #10 Postby **sunflowerkist** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:03 am

Brent wrote:I want to know how the NHC can see it though... especially at night. If it's small, someone here ought to be able to pick it out. I'm guessing they got a ship or buoy report from somewhere because it sure isn't obvious.

The NHC gurus measure all kinds of atmosphere signatures to define waves. They do not have to have convection in the area, just some type of impact in surrounding areas.

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:04 am

Thunder44 wrote:Take a look at latest quickscat image:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Near -75.4 and 28.7 ?

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:11 am

looks like a weak LLC forming near 29N and 76.5W. Also close to tropical storm intensity with the uncontaminated 35KT vector

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:11 am

skysummit wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Take a look at latest quickscat image:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

Near -75.4 and 28.7 ?

Yep

#14 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:20 am

Yup...there he is! A very tight lil' swirl

almost right in the center of the image.

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 9:34 am

skysummit wrote:Yup...there he is! A very tight lil' swirl almost right in the center of the image.

Yes, but I think it's going to die out. I think a new center is forming just to east of it closer to convection. If you loop it you see a new twist developing.

soonertwister · #16 Postby **soonertwister** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:04 am

Wherever a persistent circulation forms is going to be critical for this system. The more easterly the circulation is centered, the more time it will have to develop.

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:14 am

The whole system will be inland in about 12 hours. Forget it, it's just going to produce some rain for SC/NC. Not a chance of developing any more than it is now.

krysof · #18 Postby **krysof** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:19 am

when things start to get going, a TS or TD will pop up quickly, without days waiting for it to develop or if it will develop

air360 · #19 Postby **air360** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:20 am

if you view the animation of the satellite that skysummit provided (viewable here http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html ) It seems to me very easy to see the circulation of the storm. Just click animation and then click on the image to zoom into it and start the animation....am i missing something? it seems so obvious to me.....

Derek Ortt · #20 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:21 am

that center will have to mvoe at 25 m.p.h. to be inland in 12 hours. No signs indicate a 25 m.p.h. motion. Its still about 250-300 miles offshore.

I do not expect much intensification, I can agree with that. But the QS did indicate the possibility of gale force winds (I use gale as it is now evident that this is subtropical or perhaps extra-tropical)

Where is this surface low?

Where is this surface low?

We have ways haaa haa

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