11:30 AM TWO=Recon going

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO
DETERMINE IF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED.
INTERESTS ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CAROLINAS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
TO HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Derek Ortt]

and that means yet another week-end of me being at the office

[Scorpion]

Hopefully it gets to be a strong TS.

[Brent]

and that means yet another week-end of me being at the office

Charley's 2nd landfall... Frances... Gaston... Jeanne... Arlene. How inconsiderate.

Oh well, next weekend is a holiday weekend so at least it's coming in now.

[Derek Ortt]

lets not forget Ivans rampage thorugh Jamaica and Cayman
better not happen on any of the next 4 week-ends, BIG TDF days (Stage 1 ITT, 8 and 9 the first big climbs, 14 and 15, THE CLIMBS, 20, the final ITT)

[wxman57]

As far as I can see, it's just a weak swirl with 15-20 kts to the north and 5-10 kts in all other areas. There's a small eddy to the south of a little larger swirl. Pressures are relatively high in the area. Looks just like a cold core frontal low. No convection near that low-level swirl. At the rate it's moving, it'll be inland in 12-18 hours, pretty much as it is now. Chances of any significant development before it moves ashore are very low. Just a rain-maker. Here's a new surface plot with a visible satellite. Again, this stupid VNC connection here at home allows only 256 colors so the satellite image isn't too good. But you can at least see the 2 eddys.

I cannot imagine what they would expect to find that would reveal any new info with recon...

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb3.gif">

[Air Force Met]

I don't see how this develops into anything significant. It might have some gales...but I don't see anything tropical happening. Sub-tropical maybe....but not a pure tropical system. There's not enough time.

[skysummit]

I don't see how this develops into anything significant. It might have some gales...but I don't see anything tropical happening. Sub-tropical maybe....but not a pure tropical system. There's not enough time.

Highly agree...most likely something subtropical, but before anything gets going, it'll be into land.

[cyclonaut]

I would'nt even bother sending a plane out there if I had any say in it.

They should save their money & fuel for later on..They are going to need it!

[Derek Ortt]

subtropical cyclones do warrant recon aircraft as they are a part of NHC responsibility

[Nimbus]

Thanks AFM I saw the blossoming convection and was wondering if this was completely a tropical feature. SST's in the area are only running 26 to 27 degrees and whatever develops is heading inland anyways.

[cyclonaut]

subtropical cyclones do warrant recon aircraft as they are a part of NHC responsibility

This is a weak innocuous low IMO..Not worth sending aircraft into.

It does cost money to do so,I think they can get all the data they need on this by SAT @ this time.

[Derek Ortt]

satellite estimates typically are pathetic on this type of system

Dvorak estimates for Allison were 25KT, when it was a 50KT storm

[hurricanedude]

I rather my tax dollars go for this than some of the other ridiculous things they could spend it on

[hurricanedude]

looks like a "north Easter type situation setting up for the Carolinas and Virginia.....if it is indeed subtropical, would be a windy wet chilly sunday for the SE and Mid Atlantic area

[dhweather]

It's certainly not tropical.