Do preseason forecasts influence classifications?
Since NOAA and the NHC began issuing seasonal forecasts for
tropical activity, do you believe that the guidelines for classifying
systems may be "slightly adjusted" on marginal systems so
that the forecasts numbers are met?
There's a pretty good detailed discussion of this in
the following thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... c&start=20
Do preseason forecasts influence classifications?
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no, i dont think that they would go to that extreme...at least not THIS early in the season..maybe towards the end of the season if they have not met the number they predicted. But i still see no reason why they would fret or worry about hitting the number of storms they predicted unless they care more about the numbers than about the people...becuase if that be the case then what happened to the "the lesser number of storms means lesser death and damage" idea...isnt that what we are all hoping (even those of us who love the storms still have a side that hate the fact that they cause damage)
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HURAKAN wrote:Are you trying to say that they will just upgrade a cyclone to get to their forecasted number of storms. I think that kind of disrespectful to the NHC center that every year are trying to improve in detecting a menacing storm as quick as possible.
I'm not being disrespectful - let me be crystal clear on that.
I've seen comments in the last year questioning the classifications
of some systems, and this question has been posed before, so
I just wanted to get a feel for what folks thought.
Again, let me be clear on this, I hold the NHC in an extremely high
regard. They are the best, hands down.
After more votes in this poll, I'll explain some more.
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OK, the poll has been out for a day, and I'll finish my follow up.
NOAA and the NHC is under a TREMENDOUS amount of political pressure
from just about every elected official in the US to be PERFECT, no
exceptions. Some elected officials feel that "for the millions of dollars
we fund NOAA/NHC, we should get exact forecasts and information,
blah blah blah".
That's just wrong to put that type of pressure on the folks at the NHC.
Tropical forecasting is far from an exact science. We've made great
strides in the last 20 years, but have a long way to go.
The NHC is doing a great job in my opinion, and they are adding more
products each year. New experimental products to help local EOC officials
be prepared for certain wind speeds this year is one example.
Following Dr. Grey's pioneering lead of seasonal forecasts, along
with Dr. Chris Landsea (former colleague of Dr. Grey) leaving Colorado
State and working for NOAA/NHC, the NHC started its own seasonal
forecasts. Now, it's just a hypothesis - an educated guess - at how the
season will be. In general, we've got a pretty good grasp of what
to look for in order to have a favorable or not-so favorable
season for tropical cyclone develpment.
Some feel that due to the things I have outlined, that the NHC may
"fudge" things a bit to keep their numbers close. I seriously doubt
they would, but with that undue and undeserving pressure to be
perfect, it's a normal human response to try and please the
politicians that fund you and make your rules.
Remember the outlash from politicians and the public about Charley
hitting Charlotte Harbot and not Tampa?
The NHC had done EVERYTHING right, to the "T", no expections.
Appropriate watches and warnings were in place, and people
should have heeded them. If someone suffered significant
property loss because Charley jogged right, I'm sorry, but do
not blame the NHC - they were under a hurricane warning, and
regardless of where a hurricane makes landfall, it is not a spot,
they typically make very large areas of damage, not just where
the center makes landfall.
NOAA and the NHC is under a TREMENDOUS amount of political pressure
from just about every elected official in the US to be PERFECT, no
exceptions. Some elected officials feel that "for the millions of dollars
we fund NOAA/NHC, we should get exact forecasts and information,
blah blah blah".
That's just wrong to put that type of pressure on the folks at the NHC.
Tropical forecasting is far from an exact science. We've made great
strides in the last 20 years, but have a long way to go.
The NHC is doing a great job in my opinion, and they are adding more
products each year. New experimental products to help local EOC officials
be prepared for certain wind speeds this year is one example.
Following Dr. Grey's pioneering lead of seasonal forecasts, along
with Dr. Chris Landsea (former colleague of Dr. Grey) leaving Colorado
State and working for NOAA/NHC, the NHC started its own seasonal
forecasts. Now, it's just a hypothesis - an educated guess - at how the
season will be. In general, we've got a pretty good grasp of what
to look for in order to have a favorable or not-so favorable
season for tropical cyclone develpment.
Some feel that due to the things I have outlined, that the NHC may
"fudge" things a bit to keep their numbers close. I seriously doubt
they would, but with that undue and undeserving pressure to be
perfect, it's a normal human response to try and please the
politicians that fund you and make your rules.
Remember the outlash from politicians and the public about Charley
hitting Charlotte Harbot and not Tampa?
The NHC had done EVERYTHING right, to the "T", no expections.
Appropriate watches and warnings were in place, and people
should have heeded them. If someone suffered significant
property loss because Charley jogged right, I'm sorry, but do
not blame the NHC - they were under a hurricane warning, and
regardless of where a hurricane makes landfall, it is not a spot,
they typically make very large areas of damage, not just where
the center makes landfall.
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