Where is this surface low?

[Lowpressure]

that center will have to mvoe at 25 m.p.h. to be inland in 12 hours. No signs indicate a 25 m.p.h. motion. Its still about 250-300 miles offshore.

I do not expect much intensification, I can agree with that. But the QS did indicate the possibility of gale force winds (I use gale as it is now evident that this is subtropical or perhaps extra-tropical)

I agree, do not see a 12 hour inland prediction coming true. I do agree with a little breezy and rain. We need rain here in Central Virginia in a bad way.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure you will get that much in VA though. Still liking the hook back to the west just beofre landfall

[wxman57]

Heaviest convection is about 150 miles off the coast of NC now, with the leading edge less than 100 miles offshore. That's about 10 hours before the heavier convection is inland at 15kts. Not much time for anything to develop. Strongest winds being reported in/near the squalls is 20-25 kts. Pressure looks to be in the 1014-1016mb range near the heavier convection. I doubt that anyone will see 35kt winds out of this.

Of course, those of you who WON'T have to spend your Saturday evening working if this pitiful broad, weak low is called a TD or STD by the NHC will likely have a different opinion of its chances.

[Derek Ortt]

if Grace was named, then you know this one will be

[wxman57]

if Grace was named, then you know this one will be

Well, I would agree it's MUCH better organized than Grace. And that isn't saying much.

[Thunder44]

I think alot people are looking for the "perfect looking" system or a just a major hurricane. Most TDs and and Weak and Moderate TS I've seen look like crap. But does that make it any less a tropical cyclone? I think this system looks better than Arlene did when she was first classified as a TD.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, Grace more resembled a thunderstorm with a little tiny mesolow. Definately not a tropical cyclone at all. Didn't even have the well defined inflow and outflow patterns typical of a tropical cyclone.

All depends who the forecaster on duty is at NHC this afternoon

[wxman57]

I think alot people are looking for the "perfect looking" system or a just a major hurricane. Most TDs and and Weak and Moderate TS I've seen look like crap. But does that make it any less a tropical cyclone? I think this system looks better than Arlene did when she was first classified as a TD.

You might have a point there about Arlene, Arlene should never have been called a TD when it was. Here's what it looked like. At least Arlene wasn't mainly a big upper-level low, though.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene2.gif">

[Derek Ortt]

When Arlene formed, it was the one cyclone that made Grace look good, lol

[cyclonaut]

I think there outta be a stricter criteria for classifying these disturbances into TD's.

[dhweather]

This discussion brings up an interesting point for another discussion:

Shoot, I'll start a new thread, this will be a poll too, and a major talking point.

[Thunder44]

I think there outta be a stricter criteria for classifying these disturbances into TD's.

Yeah, if it doesn't have an eye it's not a TD.

[dhweather]

Wxman - thanks again, many times over, for posting the graphics!

[Brent]

if Grace was named, then you know this one will be

LOL

Grace was bizarre. Looked like a squall line!

[OuterBanker]

Don't really care if it gets a name or not, bring on the rain! I think it's been two weeks since we had appreciable rain. Forecast changed from pc with a chance of showers tonight this am to heavy rain and t'storms for tonight in this afternoons forecast. I has kicked up the surf with rip current warnings so swimming is prohibited and red flags are flying. Intersting note on red flags, here they mean rough surf and no swimming. We went to Acapulco one winter and noticed that red flags were flying there but we thought that they were wimps because the water wasn't rough at all so we went swimming. Turns out that the red flags meant sharks!