6-25-05 10:00 PM PDT TWO, TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS IMMINENT!

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HURAKAN
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6-25-05 10:00 PM PDT TWO, TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS IMMINENT!

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 25, 2005 10:53 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM PDT SAT JUN 25 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Image
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 25, 2005 10:55 pm

That thing is so close to a depression, I can taste it. That is a wonderful looking system with outflow over all quads. With deep convection over the LLC. In one more thing that says 10pm by my clock it is 8:55? :roll:
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#3 Postby dhweather » Sat Jun 25, 2005 10:57 pm

3-1 no later than tomorrow night.
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#4 Postby MGC » Sat Jun 25, 2005 10:58 pm

Yep, by tomorrow a TD for sure. At least something to watch while the Atlantic hibernates......MGC
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#5 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:09 pm

EPAC always loses in the end.
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#6 Postby dhweather » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:09 pm

I dunno - EPAC has held its own pretty well.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:12 pm

The only way the EPAC can win is if EL NINO develops and that is not expected.
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:18 pm

Even so the Eastern Pacific is a fairly small basin. In even smaller favable area this year. Because of the cold water all the way down to 16 north. With a area of favable water going from the Mexico coast line to 115 west. Then the line of favable seasurface temperatures go below 10 28c with 26 below 15 north.

The thing about the Eastern Pacific is it is favable. In alot of the tropical waves move slowly there. So alot of system can slowly spin up. In the systems are different in alot of ways form the Atlantic cyclones.

Also because of this the Eastern Pacific might be smaller but can form more cyclones.


Look at the map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anal.gif


People think for a second if the Alaska current ever stoped!!! Eastern Pacific would distory the Atlantic every year. Image cyclones near 30 north off the northern Baja California. Look at around 160 west at those water temperatures Image those with out that pool of cold water over the Eastern Pacific
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 26, 2005 12:16 am

The quickscat shows the LLC around 14 north/98 west. About under that area of deep convection.

1# Outflow is very good!
2# Warm water
3# Alot of Moisture
4# Little shear


Pretty much if this thing doe' s not move north to much then this could be a hurricane forming.
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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:59 am

Center by my "est" center is around 14.5 north/99 west. The convection is looking to be wraping around the center. http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


It also appears to be moving northwestward. With that movement it will be close to the coast.
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:59 am

14.8/99 is where I placed the center. Nice curving forming with nice outflow forming out of the south. This baby could be fellowing the Gfdl nicely.
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