Long range but very interesting

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

6z loop of GFS.

Yes I know that long range forecasts are not good but in this 6 z run of GFS shows a low pressure in the eastern atlantic moving west and later westnorthwest getting a bit deeper just NE of the Leewards and deepens more between Bermuda and Puerto Rico.Now let's wait for trends of consistency from this model and more important if other global models join and a consensus builds.

[Trader Ron]

Looks Fishy to me.

[cycloneye]

Looks Fishy to me.

That would be good as I like to track those systems that dont bother anyone.

[Trader Ron]

I agree. We don't need a repeat of last year.

[cycloneye]

I agree. We don't need a repeat of last year.

Yes Florida dont need 4 hurricanes again and I personally dont think what happened in 2004 will repeat in that state.

[TampaFl]

I agree. We don't need a repeat of last year.

Yes Florida dont need 4 hurricanes again and I personally dont think what happened in 2004 will repeat in that state.

But as we all know, it only takes one.

Robert

[dhweather]

Well, if it happens, it'll be a fun fish to track!

[cyclonaut]

You folks are so nice & politically correct its nauseating!

Fish are not fun to track..When the watches & warnings are up for someone & we are watching every jog north & south, east & west thats fun.

Maybe thats just me but I would'nt have it any other way.

I know I'll get PMd for speaking my mind but whatever!

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

12z GFS loop above.Wow look what kind of system is off the East Coast after it tracks from Africa.

[cycloneye]

Any other models having this scenario in the long range or is GFS convective feedback ?

[air360]

whoa! IF (<-- huge if) that verified...that would be insane...thats so far out there I aint stocking up yet...hehe....thanks for the images though...time will tell

[cycloneye]

whoa! IF (<-- huge if) that verified...that would be insane...thats so far out there I aint stocking up yet...hehe....thanks for the images though...time will tell

LOL. But it is very far in range to know if this will verifie or not.And I would like to see other models support this to be very excited but for 2 runs the GFS develops a cyclone moving it from the Eastern Atlantic to off the East Coast.We will see in next runs what this and other models show.

[air360]

im not super good at figuring out all these models...and im not trying to wish for any of this to happen...but you said its a long tracker across the atlantic. i would suppose then that for that to happen it would mean it would begin to form somewhat soon. Looking at that model when does it show the system starting to form in the Eastern Atlantic?

** im fully aware of not going on one model or one run and how early it is...so posts about all that are not needed...im just curious what its showing **

[Scorpion]

I agree with Cyclonaut. I hate fishes with a passion. Theres almost no point in tracking them because they affect noone.

[Scorpion]

It would be so cool if this verified though. Imagine a hurricane hitting the Eastern Seaboard or coming very close in July. This would bode a very active season as last year nothing formed until August.

[cycloneye]

I agree with Cyclonaut. I hate fishes with a passion. Theres almost no point in tracking them because they affect noone.

Then you only track cyclones where they hit land?

[Scorpion]

I track all Atlantic cyclones but it is so boring if they are fish. Most fish don't get very strong anyway and its not the type of storm that gives the adrenaline rush and all night chatroom events.

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

I found another model the MM5 which shows this scenario that the GFS has.

[air360]

if this was going to verify it would have to start developing real soon to "agree" with the two models.

[Steve H.]

What may significanrt about this is that it is showing an early start to the CV season. Not hard to accept with the SSTs across the basin. Fish would be fine.