What is all of this and should we be concerned?

[Stormcenter]

Okay what is all of this mess down in the GOM and NW Carribean? Why do I have a feeling this will be our next area
of interest in the upcoming week.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[drezee]

Tons of latent heat being transferred into the gulf...it needs a trigger of some sort though...tropical wave, etc.

[TS Zack]

Tropical Wave working into the GOM as we speak. One problem a ULL over SE Tx which is causing most of that convection but shear should not allow this wave to do much.

Shear 40kts. Ain't Gunna Happen..

[tailgater]

I been touting this thing all day , the shear is supposed to lessen as the anticyclone over the Yucatan moves to the north.

[iceangel]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/mob/productv ... &version=0 <<MORE..including the Carribean and tropical waves

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 31N82W 26N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N82W 22N86W 19N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 70W-90W MOVING N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15
KT ELY SURFACE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W HAS
PUSHED N AND NOW INFLUENCES MOST ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS E OF 94W. A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF TO MOVE NW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRING IN
MORE CONVECTION TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE N TO THE E
GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDINESS.

[tailgater]

I guess I'm reading between the lines too much, but sounds like they are giving it some hope also.

[dhweather]

Looking at the IR4 loop, it appears that south florida is about to get smacked with more rain!

[Steve]

>>What is all of this and should we be concerned?

This has been talked about since last Wednesday. The question is whether the circulation west of the Yucatan about to come into the southern Bay of Campeche is the main energy or if it's in the wave to the east. Can something form? It's happened before. The majority of the models (00Z) had the bulk of the moisture up on the FL Panhandle. But if something gets going and heads for NE Mexico or Southern Texas, chances are there will be some rain and various convection around the north and east sides of the system. It's a wait and see game at least until tomorrow.

Steve