94L is not dead yet...bouy 38 mph 1-min (41mph Gust)

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chlv2

Center offshore and hugging the coast!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Fairly strong little thing. With the Buoys earlier showing that it did have a closed LLC. With 25 to 30 mph winds with the radar showing a sprial banding system. Its very hard not to think differently of it by the info/data I was looking at. But I'm not the pro's/Nhc. So I don't have enough knowledge to make that call.


Also it had a tighten area of convection/LLC. With also not this broad wind field. By this it was likely a tropical not subtropical.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I honestly believe (looking at all the data; especially the buoys and Doppler radar) that this system was at least a tropical depression earlier today, and might still be one even now.


Just my two cents worth.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[drezee]

with the current Radar trends the forcast below couldbust in a huge way!!!

NJZ026-271000-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.


Try 20-35 mph winds and heavy rain:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kdox.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still look very good to me. I would not be suprized to see this in best track later this season. Personally they flyed a recon into this system to find a small center they did not(Hermine,Grace many more they upgraded). Then the next morning buoys found one. kind of weird. Plus there was satellite/Radar placing it nicely.



I'm not bashing or disrespecting the nhc. Just saying.

[drezee]

Another bust:

MDZ025-271015-
MARYLAND BEACHES-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OCEAN CITY
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS EVENING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

0.5 to 1.00 inch rainfall rates on the way with wind!!

[Thunder44]

Something important here about this buoy:

Anemometer height: 43.3 m above site elevation

How high is this in feet?

[drezee]

over 130ft

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

129.9 feet?

[drezee]

even flight level 1-minute winds of 33 knots would classify this this as at least a 30mph sub-tropical depression.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would not be subtropical. This has a tight LLC with a fairly tight wind field to it by the buoy(The overall area spread of the winds moving around it)

A subtropical system has a large wind field with a broad LLCC. Or it is not fully tropical.

[Thunder44]

About 142 ft

According to this site:

http://www.qsl.net/w4sat/feetconv.htm

I would knock off at least 5kts for that at the surface. But I'm not sure if I'm calculating right.

[drezee]

Latest winds are up on the buoy!!gusts over 40mph!!

26/23 CHLV2 36.9 -75.6 21.6 040 31 G 34 040 36 1015.8 -2.9 CHLV2

[Thunder44]

It's actually not a buoy by the way. It's a C-MAN Station.

[drezee]

True! Man, I wish was there!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I got to say is. That this system has become "slightly less defined" in still has this? Still pretty good looking.

[drezee]

You could also argue the point that if you are getting over 40 mph in the NW quad...it could be higher in the NE quad!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

True Drezee, I think it was stronger when it was moving in then it is now. It had a nice radar tropical cyclone like look to it. With a good satellite apperance. Buoys shown a closed LLC. The northeast would likely be stronger slightly. Also its starting to decouple from the LLC. Which means its over land to long.

[drezee]

I wonder how the NHC will handle it at 8pm! This is like one of those tropical disturbances that people argue about in the open Atlantic. In this case, we have actual data that points directly to being classified and yet we hear nothing!!! Are they asleep?

[Thunder44]

It maybe becoming extratropical. It's moving over cooler water.