Tropical Depression Calvin

[Aslkahuna]

EPAC has run the list twice reaching the Z name though it has never gone over. The Basin averages 16 named storms of which 9 become hurricanes. Activity in EPAC generally seesaws with that in the ATL with low activity in one basin and high in the other. EPAC peaks earlier than the ATL mainly because when the ATL is at its peak fewer disturbances make it into EPAC for development from the ATL.

AFWA=Air Force Weather Agency
TAFB= Tropical Analysis and Forecasting Branch
SAB= Satellite Analysis Branch

Steve

[Swimdude]

Hmmm at least this one is heading out to sea, like most in the EPAC. I wonder if we'll see the first hurricane of the year... I wouldn't be surprised. I must say, it makes me unhappy that the count is currently 3-1, EPAC in the lead, but... August isn't quite here yet...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Eastern Pacific if it really wented to could smoke the Atlantic. It has been through z before 24 storms. In has a norm of 16 named storms a year. While 9 hurricanes. The Atlatnic only has 10 per year on norm.

Like Aslkahuna said...


Plus the Atlantic is 3 times the size of the Eastern Pacific. So I think team Eastern Pacific might be small but very good one.

[senorpepr]

I wonder if we'll see the first hurricane of the year...

We've already seen the first hurricane of the year: that would be Hurricane Adrian, back in late May.

If 03E becomes a hurricane, it would be the second in the EPAC, fifth in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow...It appears to be drawing its self together into a ball. In you can see that outflow is moving at in all quads. This baby appears to be doing you know what. Also it appears to be moving north-northwest. Watch out Mexico.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[senorpepr]

Tropical Depression Three (03E / 03E) (26/2100Z)
Position: 13.9°N 98.3°W (220 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: NW at 6 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow the 18z gfs seems to went to keep this weak. But the system to fellow it it bombs it big time.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

the QS from this morning did show TS winds, but no real center, more of a monsoon trough and I cannot find a center on visible satellite either. Personally, if I were the NHC, I would not have upgraded after having a chance to carefully go over all of the data this evening

[Derek Ortt]

and now I see that the models are initialized at 35KT, meaning we will probably see a tropical storm at 11 (which QS does support)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM THREE (EP032005) ON 20050627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050627 0000 050627 1200 050628 0000 050628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 98.1W 15.4N 99.7W 16.3N 101.6W 17.0N 104.1W
BAMM 14.3N 98.1W 15.3N 99.6W 16.3N 101.3W 17.1N 103.6W
LBAR 14.3N 98.1W 15.4N 99.6W 16.9N 101.6W 18.5N 104.1W
SHIP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 46KTS 56KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050629 0000 050630 0000 050701 0000 050702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 106.9W 19.0N 113.8W 20.6N 121.4W 22.8N 128.2W
BAMM 17.7N 106.2W 19.1N 112.7W 20.8N 119.8W 22.6N 126.3W
LBAR 19.9N 106.9W 23.3N 112.2W 26.1N 115.7W 26.2N 117.8W
SHIP 63KTS 57KTS 46KTS 35KTS
DSHP 63KTS 57KTS 46KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 98.1W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 96.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

Tropical Storm at 11 PM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek, The cloud tops appear to be moving north-northwest. This could be very close. Also the outflow is like out of all sides. I see a broad overall cirulation.


Wow tropical storm 3#

[cycloneye]

Derek do you expect warnings to be issued for portions of the coast?

[Derek Ortt]

if they are not issued from Puerto Escondid to Acapulco at least, then the gov't of Mexico has a few loose screws. Just waiting for the ncep forecast fields to come in so I can have lateral boundary conditions for the MM5 run I will be sending in a couple of hours

[Swimdude]

EPAC = 3
Atlantic = 1

Ah well, I figured this would happen, looking at the intensity forecasts especially.

[Derek Ortt]

one note:

The models say Tropical Storm 3 not Calvin. This leaves the door open for NHC not retain depression status at 11

[senorpepr]

Tropical Storm Three (03E / 03E) (27/0000Z)
Position: 14.3°N 98.1°W (205 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: NNW at 7 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

[drezee]

That NNW needs to change...or Mexico is going to get drenched!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (EP032005) ON 20050627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050627 0000 050627 1200 050628 0000 050628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 97.9W 15.0N 99.6W 16.0N 101.5W 16.7N 104.1W
BAMM 13.9N 97.9W 15.0N 99.3W 16.1N 101.1W 16.9N 103.4W
LBAR 13.9N 97.9W 14.7N 99.3W 16.1N 101.2W 17.6N 103.7W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050629 0000 050630 0000 050701 0000 050702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 107.1W 18.5N 114.6W 20.0N 122.7W 22.6N 129.9W
BAMM 17.5N 106.3W 18.8N 113.4W 20.5N 121.3W 22.6N 128.4W
LBAR 19.0N 106.6W 22.3N 112.6W 25.2N 117.4W 23.4N 118.5W
SHIP 56KTS 52KTS 43KTS 35KTS
DSHP 56KTS 52KTS 43KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 97.9W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 97.8W DIRM12 = 320DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 96.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D


NO upgrade at next advisory as models came out again at 30kts.Derek you were right.

[senorpepr]

Here's the update...

Tropical Depression Three (03E / 03E) (27/0000Z)
Position: 13.9°N 97.9°W (235 miles SSE from Acapulco, Mexico)
Movement: NNW at 3 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62''
Dvorak Est: T2.0/2.0

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they did not find a defined LLCC with in the large area of cirulation?