94L is not dead yet...bouy 38 mph 1-min (41mph Gust)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This thing was at least a depression earlier today. I find it funny that the NHC upgraded a lop sided mess like Arlene to a TS (the ship report of 40 mph, that they for quite sometime could not confirm) while even they admitted it was not so until later, yet they will not upgrade this nice little circular system to a TD


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Scorpion]

The ship report for Arlene was real. I was on the ship and the winds were very strong. IMO Arlene shouldve been upgraded earlier.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The first few recons on Arlene, shown that it did not have a warm core. Thats what I heard/remember. It also had a very broad LLC with broad wide spread wind field. If anything Arlene was what you call Subtropical.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Arlene still looked like a TD to me up until it was well into the Gulf. The NHC even said in their discussion that they thought it weakened down (if it ever was a TS up to that point that is, they also noted) into a depression again for a time, but they didn't want to down grade it, due to its' proximity to land.


Hybridstorm_November

[Thunder44]

TPC doesn't seem to be impressed. They are digging the grave for this one:

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on June 26, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is located a short distance east of Norfolk
Virginia. Satellite images and surface reports indicate that this
system is weakening as it moves to the north-northeast...and
tropical storm formation is not expected here or elsewhere through
Monday.
Forecaster Franklin

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What was the strongest gust/One minute winds for this. In what was the strongest gust/one minute winds for Arlene?

[drezee]

(Official Reporting Stations)
Unnamed TD : 38 1-min 43 Gust (CHLV2)

Arlene: 39 1-min (DPIA1) 54 Gust(NSE)

[senorpepr]

MODIS image of 94L off the Terra Satellite: 26/1600Z

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 00.1km.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice system senorpepr. I think it was a strong depression maybe at most a weak tropical storm.

[rainstorm]

i agree. it was a td at least. lets give accuweather some credit. 2 days ago they said a low would hit nc/se va, and they were correct

[gkrangers]

LOL!

It looks like a hurricane with a filled in eye....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CHGHUR



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050627 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050627 0000 050627 1200 050628 0000 050628 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 36.6N 75.8W 37.9N 75.9W 39.2N 75.7W 40.5N 75.0W

BAMM 36.6N 75.8W 37.9N 76.3W 39.1N 76.5W 40.6N 76.5W

A98E 36.6N 75.8W 37.9N 75.5W 39.3N 74.5W 40.4N 73.1W

LBAR 36.6N 75.8W 38.0N 75.7W 39.2N 75.5W 40.1N 75.0W

SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 31KTS 28KTS

DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050629 0000 050630 0000 050701 0000 050702 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 42.3N 73.1W 45.2N 63.4W 45.4N 49.3W 43.9N 30.9W

BAMM 42.5N 75.1W 45.8N 67.1W 46.7N 55.7W 45.2N 39.8W

A98E 42.0N 70.6W 45.1N 62.5W 46.7N 42.6W 47.1N 27.0W

LBAR 41.0N 73.7W 42.7N 67.8W 42.0N 58.8W 42.3N 51.8W

SHIP 26KTS 25KTS 19KTS 0KTS

DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 29KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 36.6N LONCUR = 75.8W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 35.0N LONM12 = 76.2W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 32.1N LONM24 = 75.7W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Swimdude]

The ship report for Arlene was real. I was on the ship and the winds were very strong. IMO Arlene shouldve been upgraded earlier.

That's some kind of irony to have someone who was actually ON the ship that measured the winds to be among us. Awesome.

[gkrangers]

The ship report for Arlene was real. I was on the ship and the winds were very strong. IMO Arlene shouldve been upgraded earlier.

That's some kind of irony to have someone who was actually ON the ship that measured the winds to be among us. Awesome.

He probably made a false report so NHC would upgrade the storm for us.

[george_r_1961]

Around 3am Sunday after looking at sattelite loops I had decided this was probably or tropical or subtropical depression. A Storm2k forecaster reviewed the loops and agreed. Derek had a good point; It would have had a one advisory lifespean. And it was never a serious threat at least no more so than the coastal storms we see here in the off season. A few more hours over warm water and we may have been talking about a surprise TS now instead of a short lived TD that was never officially classified.

[drezee]

with the current Radar trends the forcast below couldbust in a huge way!!!

NJZ026-271000-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.


Try 20-35 mph winds and heavy rain:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kdox.shtml

Hey I called that one! 30 mph wind gusts last night and over a inch of rain!

[mitchell]

I am not a NHC basher, but I would die to see Joe Bastardi's Column tomorrow morning. I am sure Accuweather will try and use this as a reason to get rid of the NHC. They have used less...

Yeah...I read his column this morning he didn't bite...just mentioned that it never went as solidly inland as had been stated

[mitchell]

Oh also....Chesapeake Light is notorious for reporting higher winds than any other nearby ship report or buoy. A lot like Ambrose Tower off New York City. I'm sure its the height in both cases.

Still...pretty obvious it was a depression...but remember it was the weekend before fourth of July

[Stephanie]

I'm getting the rain associated with it right now. All of the weather reports for my area have discounted it's potential track up the coast and it's affects here for today. There was only the "30% chance" of thundershowers. As of yesterday, it was Mostly Cloudy with a chance of thundershowers!

Anyway, we needed this rain and are getting a decent soaking from it. It was starting to get pretty dry from the 90 degree plus temps. There's little to no wind to speak of.

[jax]

it's a rain event... with gusty winds....