MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MINNESOTA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201542Z - 201645Z
   
   LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ONGOING SQUALL LINE
   MOVING ACROSS NWRN MN HAS RE-INTENSIFIED.  A NEW WATCH COULD BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY
   
   ..HALES.. 06/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46799942 47059869 47569711 47699602 47259499 45709493
   45699867 46309893

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201759Z - 201930Z
   
   BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL MN TRAILS WSWWD INTO E
   CENTRAL SD.  S OF BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 70S AND
   TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
   WITH MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED
   OVER SPINK COUNTY SD IN RESPONSE TO LIFT OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   NWD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF THIS E/W
   BOUNDARY WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE EXTREME
   INSTABILITY.
   
   A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FROM ERN SD INTO
   SRN MN.
   
   ..HALES.. 06/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...
   
   45269822 45399714 45439592 45519477 45689324 45519274
   44779231 43939253 43819440 43849641 44089792

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ALABAMA EWD TO SOUTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211615Z - 211815Z
   
   COOL UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEAK UPPER LOW SWRN VA SWWD
   ACROSS NRN GA INTO CENTRAL AL. HEATING OF THE MOIST AIR MASS S AND E
   OF SRN APPALACHIANS  WILL QUICKLY ELIMINATE ANY CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WITH
   MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY COOL LAPSE
   RATES...HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE
   OVERALL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS...THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AND
   BRIEF STRONG DOWNBURST.
   
   ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..HALES.. 06/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34008641 34338553 34308489 34348446 34568240 35008191
   34988047 34748003 34217990 33438012 32658086 32158224
   32098498 32638628 33238670

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 211844Z - 212045Z
   
   STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
   MUCAPES TO 1500 J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING INCREASING
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  ALSO WWD MOVING
   BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM VICINITY OF DEN SSEWD TO ERN EL PASO COUNTY IS
   LEADING EDGE OF A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  AS THIS WWD
   MOVING AIRMASS REACHES FRONT RANGE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
   
   WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A FEW
   STORMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
   WITH ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURSTS.  SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL  INCREASE
   POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..HALES.. 06/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   40820539 41270501 41250418 40800350 40380332 39500310
   38780326 37910347 37750393 37800432 37780504 39560535

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211927Z - 212130Z



WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

SELY FLOW IS SPREADING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS NRN MT WITH 60
DEWPOINTS HAVING REACHED AS FAR W AS CTB AND GTF. WITH THE STRONG
HEATING AS RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM PAC NW...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO
3000 J/KG. WHILE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNTIL LATER...THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

A SEVERE STORM HAS ALREADY FORMED JUST N OF NERN MT BORDER...LIKELY
ON NWD MOVING WARM FRONT. THE MT STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


WITH 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR ALONG WITH A VEERING PROFILE...SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS OF NRN
MT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER THE
STRENGTH OF THERMODYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE 50KT SHEAR SUPPORT
TORNADO POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASING THREAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO POSSIBLE BOW/SHORT LINES
SEGMENTS.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NJ/CT/SE PA/MD/DE/SE NY AND NYC METRO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 221920Z - 222115Z
   
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL INTO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY INTENSIFY ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND
   DELMARVA REGION THROUGH 21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE. A
   SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA FEATURES STORM CLUSTERS
   SPREADING SEWD ACROSS WRN CT/NRN NJ ATTM...WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO
   THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA IN THE SHORT TERM.
   RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000
   J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST AMBIENT WARM/RELATIVELY WELL MIXED AIRMASS.
   IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODEST PER
   LOCAL WSR-88D VADS AS DEPICTED BY 15-20 KTS OF NLY FLOW IN THE
   LOWEST FEW KM/S.
   
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION GIVEN
   DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE...IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS SE PA INTO SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA REGION THROUGH
   21Z. OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
   MARGINAL/ISOLD SUCH THAT A SEVERE WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/22/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   41367469 41527294 40937267 39797448 39127605 39407833
   40367833 40967726 41177616

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 222008Z - 222215Z



TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA INTO NC. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REGION OF VA/NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS
IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGESTS AMBIENT AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1000 J/KG. IN SPITE OF
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS OR LESS/
AMIDST LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. OWING TO MID 80S TO LOW 90S F SFC TEMPS...WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NEVERTHELESS SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 222050Z - 222245Z



WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR

STRONG HEATING HAS ELIMINATED CAP ACROSS SWRN MT AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
HIGH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90F...MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG... STORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
THEY MOVE NEWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH 40-50 KT OF SWLY
SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITH STORMS
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 222134Z - 222330Z



CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY ISOLD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO AND PERHAPS WCNTRL IL. GIVEN
EXPECTED RATHER ISOLD NATURE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...A SEVERE WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONTINUING TO MONITOR GRADUALLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING CU FIELD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL IL...WITH ONE ISOLD
STORM HAVING ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SE IA INTO IOWA AND KEOKUK
COUNTIES AS OF 2115Z. AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
ALONG/WEST OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE AIRMASS IS
HOT/MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR 21Z AMBIENT
CONDITIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG -- HIGHEST
ACROSS IA -- AMIDST NEGLIGIBLE CONV INHIBITION. LATHROP MO/SLATER IA
PROFILERS SUGGESTS APPROX 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR. IN SPITE
OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK INHIBITION AND ADEQUATE
ORGANIZATIONAL SHEAR...PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE/WEAK BACKGROUND
DYNAMIC ASCENT SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN ID AND FAR NRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 222233Z - 222330Z



ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD INTO
SRN/ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ID /TWIN FALLS COUNTY/ SEWD TO NWRN UT /BOX ELDER
COUNTY/. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH HAD BEEN REPORTED EARLIER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN/ERN ID INTO NRN UT
SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH MLCAPE DOES RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT WITH ONGOING LINE OF STORMS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD INTO SRN/
ERN ID AND FAR NRN UT THROUGH 23/02Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AROUND 45 DEGREES SUGGEST FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNDRAFT
WIND GUSTS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 231913Z - 232015Z



...WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND INTO MN...

BROAD BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
ND AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED
ABOVE FAIRLY STRONG CAP THAT IS ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED FROM WELLS COUNTY
ND INTO RAMSEY COUNTY ND...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...YET
IT/S NOT APPARENT WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY. GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE OCCURRING...LOCAL WEAKENING OF
CAP INVOF THIS CONVECTION MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO BECOME
ENTRAINED INTO THE UPDRAFTS. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIALLY MORE
ROBUST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AS LOWER-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS ARE
OBSERVED DOWNSTREAM.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN NEB/NW KS INTO SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 232152Z - 232345Z



TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON FROM NE CO/WRN NEB/NW KS INTO SD...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING NEWD FROM ERN
CO INTO WRN NEB...WITH HIGH BASED CU FIELD CONTINUING TO DEEPEN OVER
WRN NEB/ERN CO/NW KS INTO SD INVOF LEE TROUGH. WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. RELATIVELY MORE
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE ACROSS SD/FAR NRN NEB AMIDST
STRONGER INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 241158Z - 241330Z



STORMS MAY PERSIST AND MAY UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THEY
CONTINUE ENEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY
FOR THIS AREA.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED
OVER SERN MN ON THE MN/WI BORDER. THE STORM IS MOVING ENEWD AT 40
KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW FEW CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS STORM AND
INTENSIFICATION/NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES IF THE STORM BECOMES SURFACE BASED. THE VWP DATA APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH STRONG 40 KT WLY FLOW AROUND 1 KM
BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF WI....NRN LOWER MI AND THE U.P.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...

VALID 241539Z - 241715Z



...ISOLATED STRONG STORM WEAKENING IN NRN WI...WHILE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...

A LONG LIVED SEVERE STORM MOVED THROUGH NRN WI THIS MORNING...BUT
HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS IT APPROACHES
FOREST COUNTY IN NRN WI. DESPITE THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS WI...
THIS STORM HAD BEEN ABLE TO FORCE PARCELS THROUGH INVERSION...
THOUGH THIS PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURE
WARM TOWARD 90 DEGREES THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SURFACED BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE NRN WI STORM...WHERE A CLOUD
FREE ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR INTENSE HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES
TO CLIMB NEAR 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE HAIL...BUT THE WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241804Z - 242000Z
   
   ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
   OF ERN CO BEGINNING AROUND 20Z. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH
   GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED
   ATTM.
   
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL
   CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD DO SO OVER THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH
   PLAINS OF ERN CO THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...CNVTN
   SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO AND INTO THE FRONT
   RANGE BY 20Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG STATIONARY BDRY
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR PUB EWD TO NEAR LAA...AND ALSO OVER THE PALMER
   RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK BEHIND STATIONARY
   FRONT...BUT SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME INFLOW TO SUPPORT STORMS
   MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. AREA REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW
   OVER THE NRN RCKYS/PLNS. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER LVL FLOW SUPPORTING
   STORM TOP DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE
   STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL THREAT WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 30+ DWPNT
   DEPRESSIONS NEAR THE SFC WILL FAVOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   40910269 40000252 39180242 37680278 37310335 37250418
   37310454 37900487 38750509 39610525 40110519 40490516
   40780472

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO..SRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...WRN/CENTRAL
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251743Z - 251945Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
   GIVEN LACK OF ORGANIZED THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000
   J/KG/ AXIS EXTENDING FROM STL METRO AREA/SERN MO ENEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO WRN OH. DESPITE VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER FLOW DUE
   TO PROXIMITY OF REGION TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODERATELY COLD MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STRONG
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAKLY
   DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF STL NEWD TO CENTRAL
   OH. GIVEN THE MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO
   ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ON THE MESO-SCALE AIDING IN A MARGINAL SVR
   THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   41098287 40888516 40878619 40498829 40048943 39159021
   38639074 38219074 37669051 37848925 39188595 39918224
   40438179

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1034 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 271534Z - 271730Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS.
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
   HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
   
   LITTLE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
   THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FAVORABLE OROGRAPHY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE
   FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   VERMONT.  WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...INTO THE BERKSHIRES
   AND CATSKILLS...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500
   J/KG.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY
   PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  SHEAR IS
   WEAK...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD ENHANCE
   ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   43227523 43517404 44527337 44807254 44877123 43347131
   42467217 41907282 41727376 41797474 42247547 42647551

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271729Z - 271930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS.
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH
   NORTHWEST MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS BECOMING MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE IN NARROW TONGUE.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE
   NOW ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST DEFORMATION OF WEAK CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER
   EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS
   NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.  HOWEVER...FORCING MAY
   REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WEST/NORTHWEST
   OF THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.
   OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP/BECOME FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL
   ZONE...NORTH OF BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
   THOUGH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SHIFTING INTO THE UPPER LAKES AND
   EASTERN  ONTARIO...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   48039104 46949221 45429345 44469437 44039455 44579595
   45369620 46539563 47989383 48599291

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...ERN/MIDDLE TN...ERN/NRN AL...NRN
   GA...FAR SWRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271735Z - 271930Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS/MERGERS THAT OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED SVR EVENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND 20Z.
   
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS EXISTED OVER THE AREA
   TODAY THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR WET MICROBURSTS.
   ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRY AIR POCKET FROM
   700-500 MB THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT NWD INTO THE REGION OVER THE LAST
   24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WRN TN BEGINS TO LIFTS NWD. AXIS
   OF LOW-MID 70S DEWPTS EXTENDING NNW FROM CENTRAL/SRN GA INTO THE
   SCENTRAL KY BENEATH THIS DRY AIR LAYER SUPPORTED DELTA THETA-E
   VALUES FROM 25-30 DEGREES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS
   FROM NRN GA...NRN/ERN AL NWD INTO CENTRAL KY. IN ADDITION...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES/1000 MUCAPE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ABOVE THE DRY AIR
   SHOULD FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS WELL. KINEMATICALLY...A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL AND GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THE
   ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL FAVOR
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 15-20 KT OF 1-2 KM WINDS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL
   VWPS IN ADDITION TO DOWNDRAFT GENERATED WINDS. WHERE CELL MERGERS
   OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF NWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...
   
   37168462 35988407 35158346 33788267 32938324 33008457
   33648697 34718720 36038720 37118730 37438564

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271753Z - 272000Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY...ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE OMAHA
   AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH FORCING
   EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS
   IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WITH
   FURTHER HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...CAPE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   PARCELS MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
   SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THIS LAYER.
   SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
   
   41359737 42069679 43329574 43299384 42419310 41419371
   40669488 40219646 40349753