MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271814Z - 272015Z
   
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY
   OF A WW.
   
   SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING CAPE...WHICH WILL EXCEED
   2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST AREAS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FORCING FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS
   EVIDENT IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
   NEXT FEW HOURS...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY.
    AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW
   SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...BUT 20 TO 30 KT FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE
   STORM PROPAGATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST
   VIGOROUS STORMS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...
   
   46598737 46068765 45378808 44328869 43668918 43198977
   43039132 44539033 45189001 45759025 46818957

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271908Z - 272115Z



ISOLATED WET MICRORBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THE SVR THREAT.

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 DEG
C...BENEATH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR MICROBURST WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE STORM
MERGERS OCCUR. DESPITE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS
COOL /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AND COOL SFC DOWNDRAFT AIR IN THE
LOWER 70S MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/NERN CO....NWRN KS SWD INTO SERN NM/SWRN
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272001Z - 272200Z



ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY
22Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE AND GENERALLY
UNORGANIZED SVR THREAT EXPECTED.

BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUED SLOW EWD SHIFT OF DRYLINE/LEE
TROUGH TO AN AXIS FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE NERN CO/NWRN KS BORDER
SSWWD TO NEAR CIMARRON COUNTY OK THEN SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN NM FROM CAO TO THE SACRAMENTO MTN FOOTHILLS OF SERN NM BY 22Z.
AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG /HIGHEST VALUES OVER WRN KS AND THE WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES/ WILL EXIST. MLCINH SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY
21-22Z...THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...GIVEN GENERALLY SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND 20-30 KTS OF MID WLY FLOW. ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SERN NM WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS WNWLY. THE OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO...WHERE BACKED
FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER
THAN FARTHER SOUTH /30 KTS PER RECENT PLT PROFILER DATA/. IN BOTH
THESE AREAS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272008Z - 272215Z



TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
STATES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS
BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS IS IN WAKE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
ALREADY LIFTING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND NOT WELL HANDLED BY 12Z NAM/GFS.

AS LEAD SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOISTENING AND
HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN STRONGER STORMS. AS LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21-23Z.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MN...IA...WRN WI...IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535...536...

VALID 272037Z - 272200Z



RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WWS 535 AND
536. NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST...ACROSS
WISCONSIN/PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...WITH INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS
JUST EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...FROM NEAR BRAINERD INTO AREAS EAST OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. PROXIMITY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO 35-40 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
DULUTH INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD NEXT FEW HOURS.

THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FOCUSED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE.
BEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING EAST OF OMAHA INTO THE DES MOINES AREA
THROUGH 22-23Z. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WEST OF
MINNEAPOLIS MN...WHERE AIR MASS IS MODIFYING IN WAKE OF EARLY BAND
OF STORMS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SEWD INTO SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272110Z - 272315Z



ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED AMPLE
HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER
CENTRAL/SCENTRAL/SERN MT MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SCT SVR THREAT. THIS
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTION WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER WRN MT AS IT MOVES INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE.
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SE...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SERN
ID...SWRN MT AND NWRN WY MTNS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
ID WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL MT AND HIGHER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/ DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GREATER WLY
COMPONENT TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS OVER
SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1033 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561...
   
   VALID 301533Z - 301730Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ADVANCED EWD EXTENDING
   ROUGHLY FROM WRN OAKLAND COUNTY SWWD INTO WRN LENAWEE COUNTY IN
   MI...THRU FULTON...HENRY...PUTNAM...NWRN ALLEN AND MERCER COUNTIES
   IN OH. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG.  SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
   THE LINE ACROSS NRN OHIO.  THUS...WITH CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF
   THE LINE...THE AREA EASTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE.  RUC
   MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEPENING LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
   WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   THEREFORE WILL NEED TO MONITOR NRN HALF OF OHIO FOR AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 06/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   41158474 41378468 41598459 41908458 42168453 42558404
   42748376 42808363 42828322 42818294 42828244 42698240
   42438257 41828284 41488302 40978323 40758333 40778357
   40758420 40758476 40938478

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS/NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301746Z - 301945Z
   
   ...AREA OF STORMS ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   INTENSIFICATION...
   
   SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN ERN OK PANHANDLE
   THROUGH CNTRL KS AND SRN IA. HOWEVER...AREA OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
   ACROSS NE KS/NRN MO HAS RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY...WHICH LIES IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF
   SALINA AND EMPORIA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. SOUTH OF
   THE KS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER
   90S...CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. RECENT VAD WIND DATA FROM TOPEKA
   AS WELL AS KS PROFILER DATA SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED
   TO 35-40 KT. INITIAL THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE LARGE
   HAIL...BUT AS STORMS BECOME MORE DEEPLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND 21Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   38939168 38259446 37869805 38799865 40079858 40839735
   40979505 41019281 40819146 40439110 39629099

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH INTO NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562...

VALID 301827Z - 302030Z



LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTEND FROM THE CLE AREA SWWD ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...THEN SWD THRU THE CMH AREA THEN JUST N OF
CINCINNATI. ACTIVITY IS WITHIN AREA OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY...AND RAIN-COOLED AIR IS PRESSING ACTIVITY SEWD THRU
CENTRAL OH.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST
CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 301909Z - 302045Z



MONITORING SWRN LOWER MI...NRN/CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST CENTRAL IL
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

SKIES CLEARED BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG. SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE MI SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN INDIANA AND THEN
SWD INTO CENTRAL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS EWD MOVING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS SPEED MAX IN IA SHIFTS EWD AND STRENGTHENS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH AREA MAY STILL BE EXPERIENCING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCS IN OH...EXPECT SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP...WW WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 301943Z - 302045Z



ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND/HAIL...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED...WITH SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL THREATS. WW NOT
ANTICIPATED.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION STRETCHED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR 50 S SZL TO TBN TO MVN. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. WEAK NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SLY TO THE
SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
GIVEN WEAK CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD MERGE...REDUCING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0955 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571...
   
   VALID 011455Z - 011600Z
   
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 571 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR.
   
   STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS...MAINLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF WEAK WAVE
   ALONG CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROGRESSED
   SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HEATING
   IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF OUTFLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE IN EXCESS
   OF 2000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUING DEEP CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE MID DAY HOURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK
   FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FLOW/SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK...BUT RISK OF
   GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS APPROACHING AREAS NEAR/NORTH
   THROUGH EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AT LEAST ANOTHER
   HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34189611 34669558 33709453 33229420 32989522 32939621
   32639754 33599741 33999676

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CENTRAL/NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...AND
   CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011549Z - 011745Z
   
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM MIDDLE/ERN TN SWWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL AL AND INTO ERN
   MS. AN ISOLATED OR LOCALIZED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   IS ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   AT 1545Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE DEVELOPING
   ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY DECAYING MCS OVER THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
   ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND ERN MS...WHERE AIR MASS
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF
   CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING
   CONTINUES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   TSTM INITIATION. 
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
   INSTABILITY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.
   ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX
   SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF
   7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND GREATER SEVERE
   THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN
   TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE TYPE STORMS...OR
   SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH BRIEF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   33578961 33968896 34668781 35588695 36008673 36598608
   36578498 36558379 35888413 34988481 34218545 33508601
   33158651 32878674 32778745 32708934 32759031

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011710Z - 011915Z
   
   ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
   DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. WW IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS OF STORMS. 
   
   RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED AND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   45W ABI TO 10SE MWL TO 50E DAL WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD AT
   AROUND 20KT THROUGH REMAINDER OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN TX DURING THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
   INTERACTS WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3500
   J/KG/. THE RELATIVE DRY LAYER APPARENT IN 12Z FTW SOUNDING FROM
   750-600MB IS LIKELY ENHANCING EVAPORATION IN DOWNDRAFTS WITH DCAPE
   VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SLY TO SWLY FLOW WILL
   PROVIDE MODEST INFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
   HOWEVER...SFC-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KT.
   THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
   LOCALIZED...AND ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CORES AS THEY PROGRESS
   GENERALLY SSEWD WITH MOTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...SJT...
   
   32349905 32709805 32919695 33009618 33059550 33059476
   32669430 32289412 31829422 31379471 31239613 31199746
   31259839 31559913 32089931

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CHAMPLAIN VLY THRU ERN NY/NE PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011730Z - 011830Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
   IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
   NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...EAST OF A SARANAC LAKE/BINGHAMTON LINE
   INTO THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND VALUES MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG
   BY PEAK HEATING...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS STILL EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
   ONTARIO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT BELT OF MODERATE /30-40 KT/
   CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH IS BEGINNING
   TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK.  AS THIS REGIME
   DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...STRENGTHENING SHEAR IN
   DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGEST
   STORMS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH BY
   20-21Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   44957274 44037326 43077381 42217441 41487482 41467624
   42107653 42867599 44857512

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0117 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...WRN NEB...NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011817Z - 012015Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY TOPPING CREST OF
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SUPPORTING
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND AREAS
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR LEE SURFACE
   TROUGH ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONGEST
   DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
   ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY
   THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
   
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z
   NEAR/EAST OF SCOTTSBLUFF...WITH A GRADUAL SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
   PROPAGATION THEREAFTER.  VEERING WIND FIELDS FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
   MODERATE WESTERLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR
   FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/01/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   43920344 43960247 43040159 41220071 40460096 39460302
   39400405 41260384

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL TX INTO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021506Z - 021700Z
   
   A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS AREA SHORTLY.
   
   BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   MOVING THRU HENDERSON COUNTY AT THIS TIME.  MLCAPE S OF THIS
   ACTIVITY RANGES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG...AND THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING EWD
    ALONG THE GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
   STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 2.4 MB/2 HOURS BEHIND THE CLUSTER
   INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL COLD POOL WHICH WOULD INDICATE
   AN INCREASE IN SPEED/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HOURS.
   ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH WILL
   AID IN IT CONTINUED PROPAGATION EWD INTO W CENTRAL LA.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 07/02/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   31649576 32089573 32779513 32669396 32479275 32129201
   31729207 31369221 31029279 31349443 31459546

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051626Z - 051800Z



POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
FROM W TO E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

AS OF 1615Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL OH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN/CNTRL OH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION.
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA/NY IS MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR TODAY.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SERN OH
INTO SWRN PA AND OVER WRN NY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /PER LOCAL VWPS/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051626Z - 051800Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   FROM W TO E ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AS OF 1615Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD
   FRONT OVER CNTRL OH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
   SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER WRN/CNTRL OH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS INTENSIFICATION.
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN PA/NY IS MOIST WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT
   DESTABILIZATION THUS FAR TODAY.
   
   SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SERN OH
   INTO SWRN PA AND OVER WRN NY SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER
   DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH AN
   INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
   WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /PER LOCAL VWPS/ SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
   STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   40738236 41528141 42128033 42957886 42247766 40747830
   39667980 39368153 39238231 39918263

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051655Z - 051830Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
   INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 30 SW OF MSS SWD TO NEAR MSV. WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A WEAKLY FORCED
   LARGE-SCALE ENVIR0NMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SWLY
   FLOW. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WRN NEW
   ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000
   J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
   ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT
   BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...A
   WW WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   41807498 44547564 45007475 45017241 41677293 41247394