Invest 95L is up!!!!

#41 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:03 am

Matt good job for keeping up all night with it.How about a big discussion about it as you do many times?

#42 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:05 am

Surface Obs from the Gulf and surrounding areas.

http://oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/marineloop.html

Robert 8-)

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:08 am

Floater is over it.

#44 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:15 am

Atta boy Matt ... you nailed this one, despite well-reasoned skepticism.

Good work!

Now, can you move this thing a little further north so we can get some rain??!! :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #45 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:30 am

The LLC seems to be moving to the west-northwest around 10 mph. But the convection is so impressive its location is tricky. I think it is around 20.1/94.8 at this time. You can see the clouds wraping into the system from the south. Then again from the northwestern quad. Wind reports on the coast are already over 20 mph. In all the buoys/obs show that there is at the least a broad area of low pressure/LLC. Also if you look at the southwest side you can start to see the start of outflow spreading southwestward. The favable enviroment it is in with only 10 knot shear. The 20 knot shear is above 23-24 north. Thats decreasing...A landfall with an the next 24 to 36 hours is likely. The system should also move to the west-northwest or maybe even some skips to the northwest. Some of the earier Quickscats shown that there might be winds of 25 to 30 mph. That was 6 hours or so ago. I'm guesting this would be a good bit stronger. I'm going to say that this has a good chance of becoming bret.

Also to note that line of showers heading northeastward from our system. That is a surface trough. While the Subtropical jet is slowly pushing westward away from our system. That is the line of winds/clouds you see at around 96 west. Above that is dry air below that is moist air.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #46 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUN 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.6 93.2 315./ 8.0

6 20.5 93.9 319./10.8

12 20.1 94.5 242./ 6.2

18 19.8 95.1 238./ 6.8

24 19.8 95.4 268./ 2.6

30 20.1 95.7 324./ 4.1

36 20.6 95.9 331./ 5.9

42 21.3 96.9 306./11.3

48 21.9 97.8 303./ 9.6

54 22.3 98.2 310./ 6.0

60 20.9 96.0 122./24.9

66 18.2 94.5 151./29.9

72 18.3 94.1 85./ 4.3

STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

#47 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:38 am

drezee wrote:Mon Jun 27, 2005 6:53 pm
I believe that if the center is over land, it will be pulled N by the convection forming in the BOC. I expect this will develop tonight in earnest. Barring the outflow boundary from the Yucatan seabreeze thunderstorms to the East...

Well, that worked out pretty well!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #48 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:58 am

Very much so this has a west wind. This is just to the southeast of the center.

Current Weather Conditions:
Minatitlan, Mexico
(MMMT) 18-06N 094-35W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jun 28, 2005 - 06:45 AM EDTJun 28, 2005 - 05:45 AM CDTJun 28, 2005 - 04:45 AM MDTJun 28, 2005 - 03:45 AM PDTJun 28, 2005 - 02:45 AM ADTJun 28, 2005 - 01:45 AM HDT
2005.06.28 1045 UTC
Wind from the WSW (240 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MMMT 281045Z 24010KT 7SM BKN015 OVC040 24/22 A2984 RMK 8/5//

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thunder44 · #49 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:16 am

First T-Numbers from SSD:

28/1145 UTC 19.4N 94.0W T1.5/1.5 95

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

#50 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:37 am

Slow pressure drops at buoy 42055, the center is probabaly due south w/east winds. 8-)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #51 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:02 am

06z gfdl takes it to 49 knots by 24 hours.

#52 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:16 am

Cool, getting serious. Will it have time to develop, though? How far away is it from land?

krysof · #53 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:17 am

isn't it funny how quickly something develops out of nowhere- We could have a tropical storm in the last couple of days in June or early July.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #54 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:17 am

The models plot it at around 19.4/94.0....

#55 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:31 am

Looks like a depression to me. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they go ahead and upgrade at 11:00AM.

Looks like it has about 1 day...maybe 30 hours over water...then it's inland and a rainmaker.

Gee I wonder if a certian meteorologist will be critical of the NHC for wasting a tropical depression number (and probably name) on this system.

MW

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #56 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:41 am

I agree Mw.

The winds have turned to the East-southeast meaning that the low is now southwest of there.

Station 42055 - Bay of Campeche

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
12-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
22.01 N 94.05 W (22°01'02" N 94°02'45" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 3,380.5 m
Watch circle radius: 3,131 yards

Latest NWS Marine Forecast

Important Notice to Mariners

Search And Rescue (SAR) Data

Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at 42055 as of
(7:50 am CDT)
1250 GMT on 06/28/2005: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ENE ( 76 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.6 °F

Website · #57 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:45 am

MWatkins wrote:Looks like a depression to me. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they go ahead and upgrade at 11:00AM.

Looks like it has about 1 day...maybe 30 hours over water...then it's inland and a rainmaker.

Gee I wonder if a certian meteorologist will be critical of the NHC for wasting a tropical depression number (and probably name) on this system.

MW

Yep... WOW. :eek:

LOL about the met. :wink:

clfenwi · #58 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:52 am

Seeing that the 6Z GFDL was bringing the min pressure down to 1004.5 mb at 12Z, I decided to look around at pressure obs (what follows are more or less 13Z obs) .

The buoy that's 157 nm NNW of the center (using 19.4 94.0 for this purpose) showed 29.88" (1011.9).

At Villahermosa, which is 120 nm SE of center, pressure was 29.87" (1011.5 mb).

Coatzacolos, the closest station, 81 nm SSW of center had 29.76" (1007.8 mb).

Finally, Veracruz, 121 nm WSW of center, had 29.86" (1011.1 mb).

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #59 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:56 am

Thats a 4 millibar grade with in 40 miles??? :eek:

120 miles to 81 miles.

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 8:57 am

[/img] TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200 050630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 95.0W 20.3N 96.5W 21.0N 98.1W 21.8N 99.7W
BAMM 19.6N 95.0W 20.1N 96.5W 20.6N 98.1W 21.4N 99.7W
A98E 19.6N 95.0W 20.4N 96.7W 21.4N 98.4W 22.7N 100.2W
LBAR 19.6N 95.0W 20.4N 97.1W 21.6N 99.7W 23.2N 102.3W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1200 050701 1200 050702 1200 050703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 101.3W 23.2N 104.6W 23.4N 107.8W 23.4N 111.0W
BAMM 22.0N 101.2W 22.9N 104.2W 23.1N 107.4W 23.1N 110.9W
A98E 23.9N 102.3W 25.2N 106.2W 25.8N 108.4W 26.1N 108.5W
LBAR 24.6N 104.6W 26.7N 107.8W 27.4N 109.0W 27.9N 107.6W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 48KTS 43KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 95.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 93.0W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

MW the models dont have it as a TD this morning.Let's see in the afternoon.

Invest 95L is up!!!!

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