DAKAR Received Rain before July 1st!

#1 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:50 am

This is not a common occurance at all. The ITCZ has been really pulled N this year and early! The Cape Verde Season will start early this year. Rain in DAKAR before July 1st is like music to your ears if you want an active cape verde season. (tons of fish, though)

2 AM (6) Jun 28 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm light rain
1 AM (5) Jun 28 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) E 2 light rain
Midnight (4) Jun 28 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) E 5 light rain
11 PM (3) Jun 27 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) NE 15 rain

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:59 am

Actually the ITCZ is very close to normal position at 16N. However this last dekadal in June does have my interest. If it is near 18.0N to begin July then we could be looking at and extended and active season like 95'. So far it's is going to be very close and with SST's as we see it.. things should be busy fish or not.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/itcz.html

Paul

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:03 am

Aquawind wrote:Actually the ITCZ is very close to normal position at 16N. However this last dekadal in June does have my interest. If it is near 18.0N to begin July then we could be looking at and extended and active season like 95'. So far it's is going to be very close and with SST's as we see it.. things should be busy fish or not.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/itcz.html

Paul

Agree Paul.Fish or not it will be a long Cape Verde Season that will start more earlier than normal.

#4 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:04 am

Thanks for the info. It shows that the ITCZ is almost a full degree N of the average position right now.

"0.8 degrees north from the climatological 1988-2004 mean."

This is meaningful especially given the sense that it only fluctuates 3.5 degrees from late May until Early October on average. Being over 0.8 could easily be one standard deviation for a 10 day period! That is nothing to sneeze at.

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:16 am

drezee wrote:Thanks for the info. It shows that the ITCZ is almost a full degree N of the average position right now.

"0.8 degrees north from the climatological 1988-2004 mean."

Yep the western portion is a above normal. The fact that they did report rain in DAKAR may very well be a sign it has continued to move further north of the mean. The ITCZ was well ahead of the mean and stayed there late in the season during 95'.

Paul

#6 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:25 am

This news is more significant, than people "beating the drums" over that Blob in the BOC. :lol:

I believe we will have more Fish due to the warmer SST's. With that said, it should be a busy CV season.

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:26 am

This is meaningful especially given the sense that it only fluctuates 3.5 degrees from late May until Early October on average. Being over 0.8 could easily be one standard deviation for a 10 day period! That is nothing to sneeze at.

Well if it continues and stays there it will be an issue.. It does flucuate radically as you can see with the graphics.. The next reading will be on available on the 5th after the holiday most likely..I suspect we will see a 18.0N.. The Low pressure over Africa looks like it's having more influence than the Azores High along the African coast.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Paul

#8 Postby **loon** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:21 am

Trader Ron wrote:This news is more significant, than people "beating the drums" over that Blob in the BOC.

I believe we will have more Fish due to the warmer SST's. With that said, it should be a busy CV season.

Yes, because watching an actual storm possibly form is much more boring than hoping for storms in the future.

Scorpion · #9 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:52 am

Hopefully this is not a season like 95 with many fish. Fish are boring and offer no excitement.

#10 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:04 am

Scorpion wrote:Hopefully this is not a season like 95 with many fish. Fish are boring and offer no excitement.

I don't want any Landfalling Hurricanes this year. Sorry.

Scorpion · #11 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:10 am

I would like if all hurricanes werent fish but weakened to TS's before landfall.

#12 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:12 am

I just want some rain! And I know the folks in LA and TX do too!!!

#13 Postby **drudd1** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 10:42 am

dhweather wrote:I just want some rain! And I know the folks in LA and TX do too!!!

Okay, you can have ours, please take some :cry:

Aquawind · #14 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 4:35 am

Well they did release the latest before the holiday. So here it is...Right smack where it usually is and not even at 17N yet..
So it's not way ahead of schedule at all right now..good news..Actually it is slowing it's progress and could be below average for the CV season at this rate..

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fews/ITCZ/itcz.html

Paul

Scorpion · #15 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 9:32 am

Thats not good news then.. not good news at all.

Hurricaneman · #16 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 02, 2005 11:56 am

Smoetimes indicates a slightly earlier Cape Verde season

DAKAR Received Rain before July 1st!

DAKAR Received Rain before July 1st!

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