10 PM CDT Advisory

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on June 28, 2005



...Bret moving slowly toward the coast of Mexico...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Veracruz to Tampico.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located
near latitude 20.0 north...longitude 95.9 west or about 60 miles...
95 km...north-northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 120 miles...
190 km...southeast of tuxpan Mexico.

Bret is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
... 7 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. Bret is expected to make landfall within the warning
area sometime tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Bret reaches
the coastline.

Bret is a very small tropical cyclone...with tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 35 miles ... 55 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
Bret.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...20.0 N... 95.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on June 28, 2005



on their last pass through Bret near 00z...the aircraft crew
reported that the pressure had risen to 1005 mb...that the sea
state looked less disturbed than it had been...and that the radar
presentation had deteriorated. Thus it appears that the earlier
development trend has stalled. Cloud top temperatures in the CDO
feature have also warmed overall this evening but are beginning to
cool again now. There is still an opportunity for additional
strengthening during the overnight diurnal convective maximum.
Winds aloft are favorable and the waters underneath are very warm.
Both the GFDL and SHIPS guidance indicate some modest
intensification and this is reflected in the official forecast. One
caution...however...is that Bret is a very small tropical
cyclone...and such systems can spin up...or down...very quickly.

The sequence of aircraft fixes yielded little overall motion...but
over the longer term the motion is estimated to be 290/4. This is
a little slower than before and also a little to the right of the
previous motion. This suggests that Bret may have a little more
time over water than earlier thought. A mid-level anticyclone over
Texas should keep Bret on a basic west-northwesterly track until it
makes landfall...although the GFDL model is an outlier in
forecasting Bret to stall offshore. The official forecast is
similar to the 850 mb evolution in the latest GFS run. Because of
the oblique angle at which Bret will be approaching the
coastline...it is difficult to specify precisely the location or
timing of landfall.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 20.0n 95.9w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 20.3n 96.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 20.9n 97.4w 35 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 21.5n 98.5w 25 kt...dissipating
48hr VT 01/0000z...dissipated

[cycloneye]

[loon]

he could hug the coast as far north as brownsville, given the shape of the bend

[Normandy]

Random question for mets.....is there an ULL forming west of Bret?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

there better not be a UL

if there is, well, they say time heals all... but in this case, time would just be a 6 year cycle

[loon]

? I know this is in reference to some hurricane history I should know....but what does that mean Derek?

[LaBreeze]

If there were one, what would an ULL forming west of Bret mean? What impact would it have? Just wondering.

[TS Zack]

Put it this way he wouldn't need to hit land to die.

[AL Chili Pepper]

he could hug the coast as far north as brownsville, given the shape of the bend

Just noticed the SHIPS keeps strengthening Bret through 72 hours. That's pretty interesting. I'm just too tired to try and figure out why.

[Thunder44]

If there were one, what would an ULL forming west of Bret mean? What impact would it have? Just wondering.

Possibly force Bret to turn northward over open water and possibly hit Texas as stronger TS or Hurricane. IF that were to happen which it is not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bret has slowed down alot. It is also moving more to the northwest over the last hour or so. A ULL to the west would mean a steering current more to the northwest or northward. This is a tricky forecast...

[clfenwi]

The lack of observation stations/buoys in the area certainly does not help matters.

Pressure falls would give forecasters a reasonably sound way of figuring where the storm is going in the short term (and pressure tendency/wind shift would help pinpoint progress). As it is know, we are left to scrutinize the vagaries of the satellite images.

[Swimdude]

If there were one, what would an ULL forming west of Bret mean? What impact would it have? Just wondering.

Possibly force Bret to turn northward over open water and possibly hit Texas as stronger TS or Hurricane. IF that were to happen which it is not.

Hmmm that wouldn't be good at all. Seeing as i'll be out of town for it, and thoroughly enraged if such an event occurs. NHC says landfall tomorrow morning in Mexico at this rate. Lets check out the map.





Wow, Bret looks pitiful in the overall scheme of the GOM. Hehehe... I'm saying it goes inland.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for the explanations everyone. I agree with you Swimdude. It looks like the storms in the other parts of the GOM are much stronger, but not well organized by any means.

[Steve]

earlier runs of the GFDL did indicate
it hugging the coast for 50-100 miles before
moving inland. So I wouldn't be surprised if
it did shunt a bit more NW before landfall.
The CMC and GFS did pretty good with
putting most of the northern Gulf moisture
over Florida. And the ECMWF did the best
in sniffing out the system from the middle of
last week even though it tracked a storm
toward the Upper Texas Coast. Not bad
when you merge all that stuff together
to come up with a BOC tropical storm.

Steve

[MGC]

Dereck is referring to Hurricane Bret of 1999. A ULL to TS Bret's west would tend to turn the cyclone to the north delaying landfall and giving the cyclone more time over warm water to intensify......MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the latest IR satellite. It shows over the last few frames that the southwestern outflow is bowing to the southwest outwards. While at the same time deep convection is forming over the cirulation. If it moves to the northwest it could have another 6 to 8 hours before landfall. We have to watch for tighting of the center as it moves inland.

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

An Upper Level Low is indeed forming west of Bret. Hurry up and get inland child.

[Scorpion]

Interesting... That'd be cool if it would move north some.