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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
W13 and Tim....Thanks!! 
Yeah...I hope to see BIG thunderstorms also. Will definally have my digital camera with me.
Looks like I wont be seeing Mt.Rainier on my way out...as the entire state of WA, OR, and most of Idaho is under a thick layer of clouds. Hmmmm....maybe I`ll see some storms while flying across the central plains later this afternoon. If I do, I`ll take pictures!
-- Andy
Yeah...I hope to see BIG thunderstorms also. Will definally have my digital camera with me.
Looks like I wont be seeing Mt.Rainier on my way out...as the entire state of WA, OR, and most of Idaho is under a thick layer of clouds. Hmmmm....maybe I`ll see some storms while flying across the central plains later this afternoon. If I do, I`ll take pictures!
-- Andy
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I thought the pattern was changing, but I guess not.
Looking at latest models, no big ridge of high pressure building anytime soon. You know what I just realized...the past two/three summers have been warm and dry. Maybe that's why I think THIS June is so unusual because the past few Junes have been so warm and dry.
In any event, this week will feature morning clouds/afternoon sun with temperatures around 70F...the weekend and next week is up in the air...but I think it's safe to say that the 4th of July won't be a scorcher...which I guess is not unusual.
Well, beginning July 6...I start my summer vacations...I'll be in Utah from July 6 thru July 13...then in Hawaii from July 18 thru August 3. Maybe then I'll see some sun and warm temperatures!!
Anthony
Looking at latest models, no big ridge of high pressure building anytime soon. You know what I just realized...the past two/three summers have been warm and dry. Maybe that's why I think THIS June is so unusual because the past few Junes have been so warm and dry.
In any event, this week will feature morning clouds/afternoon sun with temperatures around 70F...the weekend and next week is up in the air...but I think it's safe to say that the 4th of July won't be a scorcher...which I guess is not unusual.
Well, beginning July 6...I start my summer vacations...I'll be in Utah from July 6 thru July 13...then in Hawaii from July 18 thru August 3. Maybe then I'll see some sun and warm temperatures!!
Anthony
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I'm kinda mixed on what to think of the rest of the summer and then going into the fall. The conventional wisdom is that we'll have a late, mild summer and then a mild fall as well. The Portland meteorolgists talked this up quite a bit last week.
I wish snow_wizzard was still reading because one Portland-area meteorologist thinks we're going to get a good old fashioned cold snap in January or February, "but," he said, "We'll talk about that a little farther down the road."
Enjoy your vacations everyone. I'm stuck here until late August.
60 degrees and raining. About 1.70 inches of rain this month which is above our average.
I wish snow_wizzard was still reading because one Portland-area meteorologist thinks we're going to get a good old fashioned cold snap in January or February, "but," he said, "We'll talk about that a little farther down the road."
Enjoy your vacations everyone. I'm stuck here until late August.
60 degrees and raining. About 1.70 inches of rain this month which is above our average.
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Wow...when did this system for the weekend sneak up in the forecast models? Looks very impressive for July...rainfall rates exceeding 0.5 inch in some places...will the trend prevail in the models? Probably not...but looks impressive as of now.
Where's summer? Will it ever arrive this year? Like I said, maybe I'm just use to the past three summers where it was 80F+ and sunny almost everyday...but this weather is getting ridiculous...it doesn't feel like summer and it's June 28.
Anthony
Where's summer? Will it ever arrive this year? Like I said, maybe I'm just use to the past three summers where it was 80F+ and sunny almost everyday...but this weather is getting ridiculous...it doesn't feel like summer and it's June 28.
Anthony
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The GFS is already starting it's transistion to a much drier solution to this weekend's storm. Take a look at the 12z GFS for Sunday below:
And then look at the Fourth of July:
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Now, take a look at what the GFS had in the 6z and earlier runs today:
Sunday
Monday (Fourth of July)
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So, as you can see the transistion to a much drier solution has begun with the GFS. Just yesterday afternoon in the Forecas Discussion NWS said they thought the GFS might be a little heavyhanded (or something to that effect, I forget their exact words).
Hopefully, the GFS trends more and more south and keeps us high and dry for the Fourth, or at the most just a chance on showers. We will just have to wait and see, though.
And then look at the Fourth of July:
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Now, take a look at what the GFS had in the 6z and earlier runs today:
Sunday
Monday (Fourth of July)
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So, as you can see the transistion to a much drier solution has begun with the GFS. Just yesterday afternoon in the Forecas Discussion NWS said they thought the GFS might be a little heavyhanded (or something to that effect, I forget their exact words).
Hopefully, the GFS trends more and more south and keeps us high and dry for the Fourth, or at the most just a chance on showers. We will just have to wait and see, though.
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Yeah, it is looking more and more likely that the 4th will be mainly dry, especially the part where it really counts - night time! NWS is saying Mostly Clear on Monday Night, and a chance of showers on Monday during the day - only residual showers though, doesn't sound like anything too bad. Then on Tuesday we get back to Mostly Clear skies, the way Summer should be!
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I wouldn't hold your breath...
This is the type of summer that we saw in 1993 and 1999...it's a washout until the last week of July. The models always show promise toward the end of the forecast, but each day that glimpse of hope fades away. So although latest models indicate a drier pattern beginning next week, the models will probably change their mind by tomorrow morning. Just three days ago the models had the 4th of July weekend sunny and warm...now look...big difference!
We need summer to start...this weather is getting depressing. Waking up to drizzle and clouds is indicative of October/November/December/January...not the end of June.
Anthony
This is the type of summer that we saw in 1993 and 1999...it's a washout until the last week of July. The models always show promise toward the end of the forecast, but each day that glimpse of hope fades away. So although latest models indicate a drier pattern beginning next week, the models will probably change their mind by tomorrow morning. Just three days ago the models had the 4th of July weekend sunny and warm...now look...big difference!
We need summer to start...this weather is getting depressing. Waking up to drizzle and clouds is indicative of October/November/December/January...not the end of June.
Anthony
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So what do I think is causing this pattern?
Blame it on a ridge sitting along 140W...allowing weak shortwaves to ride up and over through Western Washington. When will this break down? Models keep this flat ridge parked along 140W for at least the next week.
This weekend looks plain wet. Temperatures in the middle 60s with periods of rain...sounds like a typical 4th of July weekend. When's the last time Sea-Tac had a high temperature above 80F? Memorial Day weekend?
WHERE'S SUMMER?!
Anthony
Blame it on a ridge sitting along 140W...allowing weak shortwaves to ride up and over through Western Washington. When will this break down? Models keep this flat ridge parked along 140W for at least the next week.
This weekend looks plain wet. Temperatures in the middle 60s with periods of rain...sounds like a typical 4th of July weekend. When's the last time Sea-Tac had a high temperature above 80F? Memorial Day weekend?
WHERE'S SUMMER?!
Anthony
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weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I thought that was very intersting, Anthony. Thanks!
I think we'll see little waves of warmth in what is basically a sea of cool this summer. Hope that makes sense. I think we're stuck until August. We have friends in Chicago, and I wouldn't trade places right now.
Summer's still got a long ways to go. I think we'll have a picture-perfect Indian Summer in August and September. Perfect for football.
62 degrees with a nice marine layer in this morning. We should get up to about 82 today.
I think we'll see little waves of warmth in what is basically a sea of cool this summer. Hope that makes sense. I think we're stuck until August. We have friends in Chicago, and I wouldn't trade places right now.
Summer's still got a long ways to go. I think we'll have a picture-perfect Indian Summer in August and September. Perfect for football.
62 degrees with a nice marine layer in this morning. We should get up to about 82 today.
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Well, well, well ... the GFS is again showing a pretty much dry day for the 4th of July, and possibly Sunday too. Take a look at today's 12z GFS:
Sunday
Monday (Fourth of July)
Tuesday
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It looks like the system that was expected to bring us a good dosage of rain is trending further north than earlier predicted. This is still a few days out, so we will have to wait a few more days to be sure and see if the GFS runs continue this trend and if the ETA and other such models have similar ideas on this.
Sunday
Monday (Fourth of July)
Tuesday
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It looks like the system that was expected to bring us a good dosage of rain is trending further north than earlier predicted. This is still a few days out, so we will have to wait a few more days to be sure and see if the GFS runs continue this trend and if the ETA and other such models have similar ideas on this.
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Indeed, today was a nice day...74F with partly sunny conditions. Nicest day in over two weeks.
This weekend doesn't look too bad...just goes to show that the GFS is pure crap. It can't decide on one thing so it depicts one thing one run and then something opposite the next to compensate.
Maybe the pattern is beginning to change...?
Anthony
This weekend doesn't look too bad...just goes to show that the GFS is pure crap. It can't decide on one thing so it depicts one thing one run and then something opposite the next to compensate.
Maybe the pattern is beginning to change...?
Anthony
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Anthony,
For the last two days of model runs the GFS has been showing us being mainly dry for this weekend and Fourth of July. It was the days before then that it couldn't get a good handle on the situation.
A pattern change may be taking place, because it sure looks as if high pressure is going to start building next week and last for the forseeable future. Is summer finally upon us?
By the way, we got to 78F today. Very nice and pleasent day.
For the last two days of model runs the GFS has been showing us being mainly dry for this weekend and Fourth of July. It was the days before then that it couldn't get a good handle on the situation.
A pattern change may be taking place, because it sure looks as if high pressure is going to start building next week and last for the forseeable future. Is summer finally upon us?
By the way, we got to 78F today. Very nice and pleasent day.
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