Breaking News=TD #2 Official
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Breaking News=TD #2 Official
Last edited by Thunder44 on Tue Jun 28, 2005 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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at 5 PM CDT...2200 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Veracruz to Tampico. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Tropical depression center located near 19.9n 95.7w at 28/2200z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 6 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 19.9n 95.7w at 28/2200z
at 28/1800z center was located near 19.8n 95.5w
forecast valid 29/0600z 20.2n 96.6w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
Forecast valid 29/1800z 20.7n 97.7w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Forecast valid 30/0600z...dissipated
request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 19.9n 95.7w
next advisory at 29/0300z
forecaster Franklin/Pasch
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.7N 97.7W 46 X X X 46 MMTM 222N 979W 16 X X X 16
99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 47 X X X 47
99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU
C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU
D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.7N 97.7W 46 X X X 46 MMTM 222N 979W 16 X X X 16
99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 47 X X X 47
99 X X X 99 MMVR 192N 961W 99 X X X 99
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU
C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU
D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
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hurricanefreak1988
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cycloneye
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hurricanefreak1988 wrote:
Anything you do, E-Pac, we'll have an answer. The lead is down to just one!
Not so fast as still it is not a tropical storm officially.
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cycloneye
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[/b]
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Brent
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Tropical Depression Two Special Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on June 28, 2005
an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico found a
small well-defined circulation. Despite problems with
communications equipment...the crew has been able to phone in key
observations. Our thanks to the crew for responding on such short
notice and for their persistence in trying to get the data out.
So far...the aircraft has found a few small spots with flight-level
winds over 40 kt...indicating that the winds are very near tropical
storm strength. This system certainly has the potential to become
a tropical storm prior to making landfall...but significant
strengthening is not likely due to the limited time the cyclone
will be over water.
The initial motion is 285/6. Global models suggest that the
depression should move slowly west-northwestward to the south of a
mid-level anticyclone over North Texas...and reach the Mexican
coastline in the next 12-18 hours.
Forecaster Franklin/Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/2200z 19.9n 95.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 20.2n 96.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 20.7n 97.7w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/0600z...dissipated
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on June 28, 2005
an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico found a
small well-defined circulation. Despite problems with
communications equipment...the crew has been able to phone in key
observations. Our thanks to the crew for responding on such short
notice and for their persistence in trying to get the data out.
So far...the aircraft has found a few small spots with flight-level
winds over 40 kt...indicating that the winds are very near tropical
storm strength. This system certainly has the potential to become
a tropical storm prior to making landfall...but significant
strengthening is not likely due to the limited time the cyclone
will be over water.
The initial motion is 285/6. Global models suggest that the
depression should move slowly west-northwestward to the south of a
mid-level anticyclone over North Texas...and reach the Mexican
coastline in the next 12-18 hours.
Forecaster Franklin/Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/2200z 19.9n 95.7w 30 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 20.2n 96.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 20.7n 97.7w 25 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/0600z...dissipated
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#neversummer
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Brent
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Tropical Depression Two Special Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM CDT on June 28, 2005
...Tropical depression forms off the Mexican coast...Tropical Storm
Warning issued...
At 5 PM CDT...2200 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Veracruz to Tampico. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM CDT...2200z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 95.7 west or about 60
miles... 95 km... northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 135
miles... 215 km...southeast of tuxpan Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue overnight. On
the forecast track...the center is expected to move inland within
the warning area early Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm prior to moving
inland.
The minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft was
1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM CDT position...19.9 N... 95.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Franklin/Pasch
Statement as of 5:00 PM CDT on June 28, 2005
...Tropical depression forms off the Mexican coast...Tropical Storm
Warning issued...
At 5 PM CDT...2200 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning from Veracruz to Tampico. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM CDT...2200z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 95.7 west or about 60
miles... 95 km... northeast of Veracruz Mexico and about 135
miles... 215 km...southeast of tuxpan Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue overnight. On
the forecast track...the center is expected to move inland within
the warning area early Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm prior to moving
inland.
The minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft was
1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches...with locally higher
amounts over mountainous terrain...are possible in association with
the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM CDT position...19.9 N... 95.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Forecaster Franklin/Pasch
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hurricanefreak1988
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