33W/8N, Any Chance?

[Hurrilurker]

It looks like it fell apart coming off Africa but the most recent pic looks like maybe it pulled it back together a bit (looks a bit like some bands trying to wrap spin on the south side). What do you guys think? Too far south? What are the conditions?

[slowjoe]

I just noticed this morning. I must say that I think this one does have a chance.

[boca]

It looks good if it can hold together and make it to the Leewards without getting sheared apart.

[ALhurricane]

Although climatology is against it, I would keep an eye on this wave. It definitely is showing some banding features. Unfortunately the 12z Quickscat just missed the wave, but it did clip the extreme eastern portion of the wave, showing some southerly flow and some convergence.

The wave is embedded in a deep easterly flow with a high positioned to its north. There is not much shear to speak of for the next couple of days. Even the GFS and Euro have hinted at a low developing out there.

At the very least, it deserves a mention in the next TWO.

[Weathermaster]

The models are starting to mention this tropical wave. See attached the last run of UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 13.7N 39.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.07.2005 13.7N 39.6W WEAK

12UTC 02.07.2005 14.0N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.07.2005 14.7N 44.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.07.2005 15.4N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.07.2005 16.4N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH

[Weathermaster]

Also de San juan NWS states in their discussion:
OF INTERESTING NOTE HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS SPINNING UP TROPICAL WAVE NOW EXITING W AFRICA...BRINGING IT ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIB AS TROPICAL CYCLONE DAY 8-10. EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS VERY GOOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE MOVING INTO THE WAVE AND ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE NEARING 20 NORTH...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW NEXT FEW RUNS OF GFS RESPOND.

Also:

ANOTHER WAVE SHOWS GOOD CYCLONIC TURNING INTHE MODEL WITH A BAND OF EXCELLENT MOISTURE THAT MOVES THROUGH ONMONDAY. AFTER THIS THE GFS WANTS TO SPIN UP THE WAVE NOW LEAVING THEAFRICAN COAST INTO A LOW THAT CROSSES THE LESSER ANTILLES ONWEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND MOVES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ONTHURSDAY. THIS COULD BE A SPURIOUS LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IT INANY GRIDS FOR NOW. BUT THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH COULD PROVIDEMORE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE LOCAL AREA.

Let get ready to rumble.......

[Swimdude]

Definately is possible if it doesn't get sheared to bits on the way.

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

From 2:05 discussion:

Wave was added to the analysis but nothing important there in this afternoon TPC discussion.

[Ola]

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

From 2:05 discussion:

Wave was added to the analysis but nothing important there in this afternoon TPC discussion.

There was nothing important about any wave in that TWD

It looks like they were in a real rush to ge this out at the last minute:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE...JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...
ALONG 19N58W 14N60W 9N60W...AFTER PASSING BARBADOS...MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF
13N...FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm running MM5 on this feature right now (primarily because there is NOTHING els to run the thing on, other than old storms).

Latest sat imagery does show a marked decrease in convection, though the banding features remain. Also, visible sats do show what appears to be an LLC moving at about 295

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

From 2:05 discussion:

Wave was added to the analysis but nothing important there in this afternoon TPC discussion.

There was nothing important about any wave in that TWD

It looks like they were in a real rush to ge this out at the last minute:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE...NOT INCLUDED IN THE LAST
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE...JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...
ALONG 19N58W 14N60W 9N60W...AFTER PASSING BARBADOS...MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF
13N...FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

Yes that was real fast to talk about every wave.The wave affecting the islands had to be with more words than that one sentence.

[slowjoe]

I'm running MM5 on this feature right now (primarily because there is NOTHING els to run the thing on, other than old storms).

Latest sat imagery does show a marked decrease in convection, though the banding features remain. Also, visible sats do show what appears to be an LLC moving at about 295

I am very interested in what turns up.

[bevgo]

Who is next. I thought it was a bit early for a CV storm but this looks to be a different kind of season this year. With 2 in June we may be looking at a very active season--Of course the opposite coule be true as some have suggested. It looks like we are going to have some fun!

[jlauderdal]

It looks like it fell apart coming off Africa but the most recent pic looks like maybe it pulled it back together a bit (looks a bit like some bands trying to wrap spin on the south side). What do you guys think? Too far south? What are the conditions?

Devils Ray get to world series have better chance.

[Derek Ortt]

the model had better not depict anything at all. if it is, then...

[Steve H.]

Almost all the Globals are showing some development of the wave. I'll give better than even chances we get Cindy from this.

[TampaFl]

[cind52]

On the NewOrleans forum:
Everyone keep your eyes on the Caribbean Wave. Models bring it into the Gulf Of Mexico and into Texas,Louisiana in a week.

Say it isn't so!!!!

Not ready for this. Cind52

[cind52]

On the NewOrleans forum:
Everyone keep your eyes on the Caribbean Wave. Models bring it into the Gulf Of Mexico and into Texas,Louisiana in a week.

Say it isn't so!!!!

Not ready for this. Cind52

[gkrangers]

Relax, its June not September.

If it was September...then it'd prolly be time to pack your bags.

But I wouldn't really worry that much about a fairly organized wave off the coast of Africa...