As many have noticed, Texas has been under the influence of a strong ridge of High Pressure with the Southern edge positioned in the Central/ NW Gulf for the past month. Houston has broken a record with .08 inches of rain. Usually, we are NOT positioned under that High this early in the season. As we enter the peak of Hurricane Season, what general direction will the High move? As far as regional threats, will that put a certain area at a higher risk as the season progresses?
Any thoughts?
Implications of June Texas/Plains High
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HouTXmetro
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Implications of June Texas/Plains High
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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vbhoutex
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Normally that high isn't positioned quite as far South as it is. That is one reason we are so dry here in Houston. It ususally shifts East and West depending on the influences coming at it from the S, NW and NE. Of course if there is a TC in the GOM and it stays where it is, as we just saw, Texas stays dry. If the hight has shifted East, then a TC has a chance to come around the Western periphery and maybe get closer to the N Central Gulf coast or our area. If it is shifted West, we stay dry and a TC has more of a chance of heading towards the Cental or NE gulf coast. I think I'm stating the obvious, but that is what it normally happens.
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HouTXmetro
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vbhoutex wrote:Normally that high isn't positioned quite as far South as it is. That is one reason we are so dry here in Houston. It ususally shifts East and West depending on the influences coming at it from the S, NW and NE. Of course if there is a TC in the GOM and it stays where it is, as we just saw, Texas stays dry. If the hight has shifted East, then a TC has a chance to come around the Western periphery and maybe get closer to the N Central Gulf coast or our area. If it is shifted West, we stay dry and a TC has more of a chance of heading towards the Cental or NE gulf coast. I think I'm stating the obvious, but that is what it normally happens.
Traditionally where would the High move? Where is it forecasted to move? Do we have any analog seasons where the High was near the same position?
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Portastorm
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The two analog years I have seen the most buzz about have been 1995 and 1954. Both years a strong high pressure ridge was centered over the Southern Plains and occasionally shifted northeastward toward the Missouri Valley and back again.
Unfortunately 1954 was brutally hot and dry for Texas and most of the Southern Plains. Did you ever see the "Junction Boys" on ESPN? That was the same summer.
Unfortunately 1954 was brutally hot and dry for Texas and most of the Southern Plains. Did you ever see the "Junction Boys" on ESPN? That was the same summer.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
This was from the Austin/San Antonio NWS....
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN. EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN. EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
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Kelarie wrote:This was from the Austin/San Antonio NWS....
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND OPEN THE DOOR TO INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN. EXTENDED MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
Wow, that's good news!
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dhweather wrote:Yes, the high will move around a bit, but overall, it appears that Texas
is in for a brutally hot and dry summer. Not a good situation at all.
Should a tropical system get into the western GOM, the exact location of
the high will determine if Texas stays dry or not.
*Sigh* Seems like this happens every year...
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