Next "watch" area? Big time flare this a.m.....

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[boca]

Dixie if you go on to the water vapor loop it looks like it will head into Honduras, but some of the models eventually bring it into the Gulf.

[dixiebreeze]

Yep. Definitely an area to watch, boca. Hard to imagine what August and September will be like, given the season's early start!

[skysummit]

Visible imagery, especially the last 2 frames, looks really good so far. It might just be my eyes playing tricks on me, but it looks like I'm seeing a slight twist. It looks to be tracking westward though.

[TampaFl]

Dixiebreeze, agree need to keep an eye on this. Good to see you back , miss seeing your posts. Stay dry as I see you are getting more rain.

Robert

[Wnghs2007]

MM5 showed development here and into the Gulf of Mexico. Dont know if that will actually happen but it is a nice looking blob area.

[Derek Ortt]

as I said in an earlier thread, the 36km MM5 is not all that great. it needs to be run at a far higher resolution

[wxcrazytwo]

as I said in an earlier thread, the 36km MM5 is not all that great. it needs to be run at a far higher resolution

tonight is a good reason why we are not releasing any high res MM5 runs yet. Output is totally illogical (probably because I ran it at a higher resolution than I would have liked to get a alrger domai

your confusing me dude.

[dhweather]

The tops have warmed a bit in the last couple of hours, but
that is still an impressive area of convection - and rather large.

[Derecho]

The most common way you get a lot of convection from something that doesn't develop and really never has a chance to is strong upper diffluence on the east side of a sharp upper trough....you'll get intense convection, and it may even "persist" for an extended period of time...

But it's primarily an upper-level feature; in a sense "created" by horrible shear that's totally unfavorable for tropical development...it's not a tropical wave...the next tropical wave is actually east of this feature.

It's common for this to happen in the GOM and Western Carib.

This is one of those times.

Look at the CIMISS shear maps.

[Derek Ortt]

when I said higher resolution, I meant lower.... oops, ran it at 18km instead of 12 or 15km where we like to run it (the number is higher)

[skysummit]

.it's not a tropical wave...the next tropical wave is actually east of this feature.

Local met said at noon that this is a tropical wave and will be moving into the Gulf by the late weekend, early part of next week.

[Anonymous]

IMO, it appears that way. While the MM5 may be too aggressive, by showing a rapidly intensifying hurricane immediately after leaving the Yucatan, the conditions in the Gulf may not be all that unfavorable for development like that after a good 24 hours over the gulf, but time will tell.

[Steve]

>>IMO, it appears that way. While the MM5 may be too aggressive, by showing a rapidly intensifying hurricane immediately after leaving the Yucatan, the conditions in the Gulf may not be all that unfavorable for development like that after a good 24 hours over the gulf, but time will tell.

Agreed. I also agree with Derecho about the the main mass, but the wave itself is closing in. It looks like some of the energy is starting to bulge into the shear as the TUTTish upper trof continues to nose SW and narrow. We're out of the woods at least until Saturday when we can see if anything emerges west of 85 and north or west of the upper feature.

In my mind, it's almost a classic setup for Western Gulf/BOC development. Whether anything wants to come out of that remains to be seen. But the ingredients are there and several usual process are taking place.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

we should be watching the east atlantic... will soon make a post in the analysis forum but I can see a clear closed llc

[Stormcenter]

we should be watching the east atlantic... will soon make a post in the analysis forum but I can see a clear closed llc

It's a long ways away. We have alot a time to watch that area.
I'm more interested in what's closer (SW Carribean)to the GOM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs has backed down from developing it. In fact at 12z it hardly even closes a low off. I will look at models info more as time go's by. The convection is not impressive with the system. But the upper level enviroment is favable with most of the dry air to the north of the system/Upper level shear is favable at 5 to 10 knots over the system. I don't know why the models have backed down so much.

[Stormcenter]

The Gfs has backed down from developing it. In fact at 12z it hardly even closes a low off. I will look at models info more as time go's by. The convection is not impressive with the system. But the upper level enviroment is favable with most of the dry air to the north of the system/Upper level shear is favable at 5 to 10 knots over the system. I don't know why the models have backed down so much.

Which one are you talking about?

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing to watch with the SW Caribbean though. Nothing is there except for disorganized convection

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs has backed down from developing it. In fact at 12z it hardly even closes a low off. I will look at models info more as time go's by. The convection is not impressive with the system. But the upper level enviroment is favable with most of the dry air to the north of the system/Upper level shear is favable at 5 to 10 knots over the system. I don't know why the models have backed down so much.

Which one are you talking about?

The one over the central to Eastern Atlantic.