Becoming increasingly concerned...

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am beginning to become increasingly concerned about the area in the SW Caribbean. The pattern it has is more typical of a mature cyclone IMO...



Of course, this could all be gone by tomorrow, however, lets hope the MM5 does not play out...or else we got big problems.

[HURAKAN]

In case of a circulation, that would be an ultra-broad circulation.

[Weatherboy1]

earlier today, this was all hat, no cattle (think that's the expression anyway ... I'm a Floridian not a Texan, so bear with me!) Looked like a big "blob" with no organization. But it does appear to be trying to get its act together and on the latest satellite view, you're obviously seeing a swirl pattern emerge. One of the surface stations in Panama (MPTO) has seen winds swing around in the last couple hours, with the last reading at 230 degrees, or SW. Cartagena, Colombia is reporting W and WSW and SW winds too:

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_adv?partner=6037&time=80&type=metar&btnMet=Decoded&station=SKCG&reg=CL%3BCENTRAL+AMERICA+%26+CARIBBEAN&cntry=CL%3BAT&wxcountry=CL%3BAT&wxcity2=BASSETERRE

Not sure if it's just random storm-caused winds or anything, and it's too early to say there's anything down there for sure. But definitely worth monitoring ...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That maybe a broad MLC. Convection has started to fade tonight. In I would like to see the convection redevelop before I start hyping this. One note is the shear appears to be moving northward. While a upper high is forming over the southern sides of this system. The 18z nam shows this area moving northwestward over the next few days. In hints of a closed isobar.

Interesting to watch.

[Thunder44]

It getting good outflow, and pressures are starting to fall in those buoys out there (maybe more diurnal) but no signs of a closed surface circulation yet.

[skysummit]

If convection fires up late tonight, early tomorrow morning like it did this morning, it's going to get really exciting! Even though it doesn't have the cold cloud tops like it had this morning, it looks more like things are coming together for it.

[Wpwxguy]

I agree with Mike, there is some sort of circulation. And if something is trying to form, then WOW! Double WOW! WOW WOW. LOL Talk about fast. It could all fade in the next few hours but that does not mean the overall circulation will fade. Could refire at any time. I personally think this could become Cindy, question is when? IMO But, I'm not one to jump the gun so I'll say watch and wait.

Bill

[DoctorHurricane2003]

If........that is if.......it had formed into a tropical cyclone today I would have had an aneurism, gone into catatonic shock (that's the right word, right?)......and had a seizure........all at once.

[skysummit]

I say we have a depression in the making. I've been watching this and only this since 7a.m. CST this morning and it's looking better and better every 30 minutes. I haven't been checking buoy reports though. All I've been watching is visible with an occasional look at enhanced.

[Brent]

If........that is if.......it had formed into a tropical cyclone today I would have had an aneurism, gone into catatonic shock (that's the right word, right?)......and had a seizure........all at once.

Darn! I would have liked pictures of that.

[wxman57]

I've been watching ship reports in the area. Nothing but ESE winds through taht region. Convection is diminishing. What we had was a very weak wave moving into the right rear entrance region of the jet around an upper-level low (happens all the time). As the axis if the wave moved by, the convection fell apart. There is some evidence of a mid-level circulation, but nothing at the surface. Most likely, what's left of this system will eventually track inland into Honduras. Development is unlikely, but not impossible.

[Wpwxguy]

I'm not sure Mike was saying he thought it was a cyclone, more so one in the making. I think that it is trying to develop right now, but it'll be a while. Even if it were to become a depression tonight I would still say Wow! From nothing at all to a depression in less than 12 hours or so would be amazing. Don't think it'll happen but you never know.

Bill

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I 100 percent agree with wxman57. This is nothing more then a tropical wave that is running into the southeast quad of the subtropical Jet. No development is likely. Maybe a weak MLC but nothing at the surface. The models do hint at somehthing weak(Isobar being closed) moivng west-northwest or northwest after 60 hours on the nam.

[Stormcenter]

I 100 percent agree with wxman57. This is nothing more then a tropical wave that is running into the southeast quad of the subtropical Jet. No development is likely. Maybe a weak MLC but nothing at the surface. The models do hint at somehthing weak(Isobar being closed) moivng west-northwest or northwest after 60 hours on the nam.

No development is likely when now or never? If you are saying never than how much do want to bet?

[Derek Ortt]

there is about a .000001% chance of the SW Caribbean forming into a tropical cyclone. Basically no chance. There is NO organization, NOsurface circulation, and based upon WXMAN57's info, <b>NOT EVEN A SURFACE TROUGH</b>.


Now that E Atlantic system, if that were in the Carib or GOM, it would already be classified as a TD

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I said no development is likely for the next 36 hours. But once it moves to around 17 north/82 west in which the "nam" is forecasting around 72 hours. Then a weak low "could" start to develop"....Thats the way it looks an that low will not be a depression maybe a weak tropical distrabance.

I say there is a chance(Covering my back side) but it doe's not look good.

Also Derek, I used to think a system like that over the Gulf would be a depression but after Bret(Finding a closed eye) I don't know. I'm just saying....

[Steve]

He already said he wouldn't bet a penny on it. No hedging those bets Matt!

Steve

[Stormcenter]

there is about a .000001% chance of the SW Caribbean forming into a tropical cyclone. Basically no chance. There is NO organization, NOsurface circulation, and based upon WXMAN57's info, <b>NOT EVEN A SURFACE TROUGH</b>.


Now that E Atlantic system, if that were in the Carib or GOM, it would already be classified as a TD

You know that is a very strong statement to make. I know I would never make it. As a matter fact I don't even think the NHC would make one like that. If you're wrong then I'm sorry but your reputation would take a hit on this board. IMO

[Wthrman13]

There does appear to be an MCV in there, as wxman57 said, but that is typical for decaying convective complexes in the tropics (also midlatitudes). They normally don't develop further.

[Steve]

Derek,

>>NOT EVEN A SURFACE TROUGH.

Didn't the 5:30 TWO mention the wave interacting with a surface trof? I'm not saying there is or isn't one, but that's what the NHC said (at least as cut and pasted by someone else).

None the less, no way is this thing a .00001% chance. Maybe in the SW Caribbean, but after it gets past that TUTT zone, let's see what happens then. To me, it looks like the classic setup for a POSSIBLE development just based on the pattern alone. Of course it's also a classic setup for the eunoch-fication of the convection and wave as well

Steve