MM5...Significant System in Gulf by Day 5??

Scorpion · #21 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:46 am

Would be nice if we got the CV wave develop and this develop. The D storm by early July. That would be amazing.

#22 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:52 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I have a lot of faith in it out to 120 hours. Doing some tests on Ivan to figure out the precise conditions that it behaves the best in.

Now, that said, I have <b>ZERO</b> faith in the FSU version. No point running it at 36km as GFS is 27km

Thanks for the info.

What is the UM MM5 take on the solution that takes a system into the GOM next week?

Derek Ortt · #23 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:57 am

I have not ran the MM5 on that region, focusing on the CV system as there is nothing to track in the GOM (we do not run for the whole basin... only on specific regions)

canegrl04 · #24 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:57 am

"Meth lab?"

Stay off of that stuff :lol:

#25 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:00 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I have not ran the MM5 on that region, focusing on the CV system as there is nothing to track in the GOM (we do not run for the whole basin... only on specific regions)

Well, GIT-R-DONE!!!! :lol:

Derek Ortt · #26 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:32 am

and I'm not going to run it on the GOM. Nothing there at all. Will rerun within the next half hour on the Atlantic system

#27 Postby **dhweather** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:34 am

Oh, I meant on the SW Carribean area of convection.

The FSU MM5 gets really exicted about it, just wondered what
y'alls had to say.

Derek Ortt · #28 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:36 am

only doing one run until we get our new system and the atlantic system appears to have a clkosed surface circulation now based upon visible imagery, so that is the one that gets the model

#29 Postby **Wthrman13** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:48 pm

I have not ran the MM5 on that region, focusing on the CV system as there is nothing to track in the GOM (we do not run for the whole basin... only on specific regions)

Derek, are you doing this as part of a research project, or just for fun? Last season I ran some ARPS forecasts (down to 1 km resolution in one case) of Charley, and then decided to do so just for the heck of it for Frances and Jeanne as well. I'll probably do so again if I have time for any significant land-threatening TC's in the Atlantic this year. The main issue right now is the ocean surface flux parameterization in the ARPS appears to have some problems at tropical cyclone wind speeds, in that the heat and moisture fluxes are too low, so the system doesn't deepen enough. I am working on that right now with a friend of mine here at OU, and we are applying it to a joint modeling study of Hurricane Charley. If I have time, I'll tweak around with ARPS and see if I can get more realistic real-time forecasts of significant TC's this year. It will be interesting to compare with some of the MM5 forecasts out there.

Derek Ortt · #30 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:52 pm

we're running it primarily for the RAINEX experiment. We want our own models so we can tell the Navy Plane that we have for this where to fly and how strong the storm will be. We may also develop an ensemble as well.

Still trying to work out the remaining bugs in the process. Running it seems to be smooth (whenever NCEP's FTP site is actually running). Primarily in the vortex tracking program is where I have been running into some major problems today

MM5...Significant System in Gulf by Day 5??

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