Becoming increasingly concerned...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

IF I remember right tropical depression 7 of a few years ago was a MCV off Florida. In which formed on the north end of what was left of the tropical wave which was tropical depression 6.

[Wthrman13]

Yes, and Hurricane Danny in '97 developed from a mid-latitude continental MCV that drifted over the gulf and developed a surface reflection. The vast majority of MCV's, tropical or otherwise, however, do not go on to develop into TC's.

[Derek Ortt]

the wind flow provided by WX indicated not even a surface trough. We should have seen NE winds for there to be a trough


Now, why would my reputation take a hit for saying this isnt going to develop and not some of the others who predict a total of 75 storms per year (or those who were saying Bonnie was going to be bigger than Charley), and they end up having an accuracy rating of 10%? I'll take the 50-70% rate above 10%

[Steve]

Well for anyone who's interested, the TUTT appears almost cutoff from the flow at its northerly side replaced by westerlies and a new shortwave already to the east of its northern edge. Bet is the usual piece slides off to the SW (already nosed in the Pacific last night) and the zone fills in.

The battle between the Wave/MCV and the shear zone is on. The convection, as noted a couple of hours earlier, is bulging on with some convection firing off just where the area of issue is interacting with the southwesterly flow aloft. My bet, and I ain't laying no money on this yet, is that the TUTT loses with energy busting out the other side by late tomorrow night or Saturday morning.

This is all viewable on your favorite long water vapor loop.

Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Upper level winds are going to become much more favorable in the SW Caribbean Sea (and Gulf of Mexico) in the next 24 - 48 hours.


Current Shear (1200 Z):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif

24 hr Shear Forecast:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif

48 hr Shear Forecast:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif


This disturbance certainly bears watching; that much is for sure.



Hybridstorm_November2001

[Stormcenter]

the wind flow provided by WX indicated not even a surface trough. We should have seen NE winds for there to be a trough


Now, why would my reputation take a hit for saying this isnt going to develop and not some of the others who predict a total of 75 storms per year (or those who were saying Bonnie was going to be bigger than Charley), and they end up having an accuracy rating of 10%? I'll take the 50-70% rate above 10%

I'll tell you why because I don't recall a Pro-Met on this board ever making a bold statement like that before about any disturbance or whatever in the tropics. Now if it was someone like me (an amateur weather buff) then it's no big deal but a Pro-Met then it means something. I hope you're right.

[Steve]

I hear what you're saying, but I think Derek's rep is pretty iron clad. I think he has to be cautious and conservative vs. everyone else who wants to look at all possibilities of every blob that pops up in the basin. That's the way the NHC conducts their business and the way I would expect him to. What I read him saying is that he doesn't expect anything to form in the SWC. I didn't see where he said nothing would develop 3-4 days down the road. The models have carried a "ripple" for several runs now which is all they did with Bret until late in the game. So the right thing to do (from his standpoint) is just to acknowledge the energy for what it is and leave the mongernig (even if I think there's some sound reasoning why this COULD crank) to us

Steve

[loon]

I mean this as a joke, but it must be nice to be a meterologist. If I was only right 50-70% of the time as a Systems Administrator of a software development company...well, you know, hehehe, I'd be fired. I understand meterology is difficult and I'm not slamming, just saying. In reality, I'm actually glad I'm not a meterologist, because people challenging your every prediction, and having to predict(guess) if its going to rain, then having the public either love you because it was nice for the town fair or hate you because there was a hail storm when you said it was gonna be sunny, heh. The hou/gal guys got it right though. We pretty much just have 20% chance of rain until October...heh.

Cheers,
loon

[Stormcenter]

I mean this as a joke, but it must be nice to be a meterologist. If I was only right 50-70% of the time as a Systems Administrator of a software development company...well, you know, hehehe, I'd be fired. I understand meterology is difficult and I'm not slamming, just saying. In reality, I'm actually glad I'm not a meterologist, because people challenging your every prediction, and having to predict(guess) if its going to rain, then having the public either love you because it was nice for the town fair or hate you because there was a hail storm when you said it was gonna be sunny, heh. The hou/gal guys got it right though. We pretty much just have 20% chance of rain until October...heh.
Cheers,
loon

Yeah I know.

[Stormcenter]

I hear what you're saying, but I think Derek's rep is pretty iron clad. I think he has to be cautious and conservative vs. everyone else who wants to look at all possibilities of every blob that pops up in the basin. That's the way the NHC conducts their business and the way I would expect him to. What I read him saying is that he doesn't expect anything to form in the SWC. I didn't see where he said nothing would develop 3-4 days down the road. The models have carried a "ripple" for several runs now which is all they did with Bret until late in the game. So the right thing to do (from his standpoint) is just to acknowledge the energy for what it is and leave the mongernig (even if I think there's some sound reasoning why this COULD crank) to us

Steve

The NHC does not use precentages when it comes to development possibilities.

[gkrangers]

WTNT32 KNHC 300235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
BEAR WATCH ISSUANCE BULLETIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BEAR WATCH FOR THE SW CARRIBEAN SEA...

...A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING...

FORECASTER YOGI

[Trader Ron]

There are OVER 100 waves in a given year. How many become named storms? Maybe 10? That's less than 10%, when i went to school many moons ago.

[Wnghs2007]

WTNT32 KNHC 300235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
BEAR WATCH ISSUANCE BULLETIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BEAR WATCH FOR THE SW CARRIBEAN SEA...

...A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING...

FORECASTER YOGI

I know that its a fake forecast that was made out of fun but as the rules states you need to put this before that type of post as not to get in trouble with the staff and admins

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vacanechaser]

the wind flow provided by WX indicated not even a surface trough. We should have seen NE winds for there to be a trough

Agreed.. If you look closely at the visible image, you will see a spin for sure. However, looking to the west of the cloud cover as the system spins, at LOW LEVELS, you can see the clouds moving west. It also appeared to have had an outflow boundary which pushed westward earlier. It is moving west and will be like Bret. Done before it starts


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Steve]

>>Agreed.. If you look closely at the visible image, you will see a spin for sure. However, looking to the west of the cloud cover as the system spins, at LOW LEVELS, you can see the clouds moving west. It also appeared to have had an outflow boundary which pushed westward earlier. It is moving west and will be like Bret. Done before it starts

Well the fact is, Bret formed near landfall. He wasn't done before it started. It just took a while. I think outflow boundaries are overrated when a system hasn't even started developing yet - not to mention there is the remnants of a TUTT to the west of the system, at least one tropical wave involved to the east, lower pressures coming off the S.A. Coast and a general hodgepodge of weather in that immediate area. I even picked up a couple of ebedded swirls earlier today. So if by Sunday morning, nothing looks like it's coming together, throw the sand on it. Until then, "done before it starts" basically doesn't mean a whole lot.

Steve

[Cookiely]

If........that is if.......it had formed into a tropical cyclone today I would have had an aneurism, gone into catatonic shock (that's the right word, right?)......and had a seizure........all at once.

According to my granny, this is simply called a conniption fit.
It certainly seems to have a slight spin on the last of the frame. Just my ignorant two cents.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

I can think of many strong statements that pro mets have made here regarding development, some have been wrong, yet their reps remained in tact. Could it be that you just do not agree with or like my forecast of nothing coming from the SW Caribbean in the immediate future but I can see something in the E Atl?

[vbhoutex]

Maybe I am just stubborn, or maybe I am blind, but I really do not see a spin with this system. I see a complex of pulsing thunderstorms moving slowly westward or WNW. I am not saying it will not turn into something later, but I just don't see anything at this point except a large area of disturbed weather.

[vacanechaser]

>>Agreed.. If you look closely at the visible image, you will see a spin for sure. However, looking to the west of the cloud cover as the system spins, at LOW LEVELS, you can see the clouds moving west. It also appeared to have had an outflow boundary which pushed westward earlier. It is moving west and will be like Bret. Done before it starts

Well the fact is, Bret formed near landfall. He wasn't done before it started. It just took a while. I think outflow boundaries are overrated when a system hasn't even started developing yet - not to mention there is the remnants of a TUTT to the west of the system, at least one tropical wave involved to the east, lower pressures coming off the S.A. Coast and a general hodgepodge of weather in that immediate area. I even picked up a couple of ebedded swirls earlier today. So if by Sunday morning, nothing looks like it's coming together, throw the sand on it. Until then, "done before it starts" basically doesn't mean a whole lot.

Steve

I know Bret formed at landfall.. Thats my point... It ran out of time..And so will this. It is clear in the sat loops that any circulation is headed due west, toward land... I could be wrong, but don't think so. I chase these things when they develop, so I am looking for something to pop. But it is running out of time and space right now. Another low could form, but it is not looking to likely to me right now...

As far as the outflow comments goes, I have never seen a system develop once I see an outflow boundary. Not saying that it has never happened, but I have never seen it. There are bigger things out in the eastern Atlantic I think could be more pressing than this. JMHO.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Steve]

>>I know Bret formed at landfall.. Thats my point... It ran out of time..And so will this. It is clear in the sat loops that any circulation is headed due west, toward land... I could be wrong, but don't think so. I chase these things when they develop, so I am looking for something to pop. But it is running out of time and space right now. Another low could form, but it is not looking to likely to me right now...

I gotcha. I misunderstood the comment. I think the chances are that it doesn't form either to be honest with you. But I'm waiting to sound the death knell until it gets past the remnants of the TUTT to its immediate west.

>>As far as the outflow comments goes, I have never seen a system develop once I see an outflow boundary. Not saying that it has never happened, but I have never seen it. There are bigger things out in the eastern Atlantic I think could be more pressing than this. JMHO.

I recall a couple as well as one with "rope clouds" that blew out of them. Unfotunately my braincells aren't sufficiently intact enough anymore to remember which storms eventually came from those particular disturbances. But in the 2 or 3 cases I've seen, the outflows and/or rope clouds were there long before development. So if this ends up developing a couple days down the road, maybe next time I'll remember the C storm (or TD #3) from 2005. Anyway, I've been to your website, and I like your work. Looking forward to a few memorable shots this season.

Steve