Becoming increasingly concerned...

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vacanechaser
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#41 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:18 pm

Thanx, for the comments on the site.. I just wish I had something to post from this seasons thunderstorms.. I have had nothing.. I just hope the hurricane season washes away my SDS.. lol..

I figured it was a mis-understood comment. Sometimes the written word is left to be interpreted by the reader.. We will see what happens. Surprised at the amount of convection to the east now with it.. Looks like it could be another long season ..


Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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#42 Postby dhweather » Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:27 pm

Well, I'll say this - the SW carribean has a lot of convection going on
right now. I think there's more outflow boundaries from the convection
than anything else.

With that said, given that we are in the season, and if this persists,
anything is possible.
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#43 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I can think of many strong statements that pro mets have made here regarding development, some have been wrong, yet their reps remained in tact. Could it be that you just do not agree with or like my forecast of nothing coming from the SW Caribbean in the immediate future but I can see something in the E Atl?


Actually Derek I'm one of your fans but I just don't believe in making such strong statement unless of course you got inside information from the man upstairs. :lol:
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#44 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:05 pm

TIME AND PATIENCE!

You can't jump on a system that even it looks promising hasn't last for more than 18 hours.
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#45 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:19 pm

I'm very confident this isnt going to do anything, at least for a while, as the dynamics are just pathetic. We have more surface outflow than we have inflow (and as should be expected based upon the surface reports). Simple mass continuity suggests no chance of development there
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#46 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:50 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm very confident this isnt going to do anything, at least for a while, as the dynamics are just pathetic. We have more surface outflow than we have inflow (and as should be expected based upon the surface reports). Simple mass continuity suggests no chance of development there


I also never thought this "disturbance" would do anything in the short term until it makes into NW Carribean or GOM. We are not even sure that will happen. But if it does as NHC states in their 10:30pm update conditions are expected to improve so anything is possible.
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