Cindy in the making? Pretty ferocious.....

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:09 pm

convection now so it sure looks that way -- coupled with the TWO at 10:30:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:20 pm

A very weak MLC centered at 13 north/81 west. The enviroment is becoming more favable at 20 knots decreasing. But all the convection is way north. Which you can expect because that convection was fired because of the southeast quad of the subtropical jet. No tropical cyclone development is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.

#3 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:22 pm

I expect we'll have at least in Invest before late Friday.

#4 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:24 pm

Still gotta bust that shear zone which is looking more and more likely the smaller the remnants of the TUTT gets. But it's easily a day or more (if ever) away from anything. The models that have the reflective ripples on them don't do anything until around Sudnay or Monday even. But it's still looking good on IR, I'll give it that.

Steve

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:30 pm

Here is the weak tropical wave...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

Then look at the subtropical jet on shear maps or water vapor or even anyother satellite. It will show that it is slowly lefting taking the key to the lefting with it. The air is moving up the over the weak tropical wave/Disrabance.To form the convection...

#6 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:32 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:I expect we'll have at least in Invest before late Friday.

Grrrrr. I hope not, Dixie. I am looking forward to a QUIET weekend. Please, if you can, make this thing hold off until next week...at least.

I would appreciate anything you could do in this regard.

MW

#7 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:41 am

>>It will show that it is slowly lefting taking the key to the lefting with it

Uh Matt, you got some to share? 8-)

#8 Postby **tailgater** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:50 am

Steve wrote:>>It will show that it is slowly lefting taking the key to the lefting with it

Uh Matt, you got some to share?

I thought it was just me getting sleepy :roll:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #9 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:52 am

Sorry. What I was trying to say is the Subtropical Jet. Southeastern quad was running over that weak tropical wave, forming that convection.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #10 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 1:56 am

Steve wrote:>>It will show that it is slowly lefting taking the key to the lefting with it

Uh Matt, you got some to share?

This should be nominated for post of the season...

artist · #11 Postby **artist** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:27 am

some of you have probably already seen this site, but I just found this and the satellite is great.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+1200+1600+aor+hiresir

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:32 am

With the Cmc,Gfs hinting at something it needs to be watched.

mobilebay · #13 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:45 am

senorpepr wrote:
Steve wrote:>>It will show that it is slowly lefting taking the key to the lefting with it

Uh Matt, you got some to share?

This should be nominated for post of the season...

I'll second that nomination!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:58 am

I will give this system one thing the shear is down to 10 knots over it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #15 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:09 am

Holy shoot the pressure is falling repaidly at this hour. The buoy south of Jamaica is falling at 3.2 millibars a hour. The one 150 miles or so to the west is falling a .9 millibars a hour. This is not normal. The shear over the system is light/Favable. In the Cmc/Gfs hint at development.

Maybe earlier I was hard headed. This might come back in bite me :cry:

mobilebay · #16 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:11 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Holy shoot the pressure is falling repaidly at this hour. The buoy south of Jamaica is falling at 3.2 millibars a hour. The one 150 miles or so to the west is falling a .9 millibars a hour. This is not normal. The shear over the system is light/Favable. In the Cmc/Gfs hint at development.

Maybe earlier I was hard headed. This might come back in bite me

Can you post the links to these pressure drops?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:15 am

Holy #$@ it is now falling for this hour 3.7 millibars or 6.9 millibars for the last two hours. Something is trying to develop.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

mobilebay · #18 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:23 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Holy #$@ it is now falling for this hour 3.7 millibars or 6.9 millibars for the last two hours. Something is trying to develop.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

Those are some pretty decent pressure drops. IMO

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #19 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:36 am

1.4 millibar drop to the buoy to the west.

Thunder44 · #20 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:46 am

It's dropping but not at the fast rate you are saying, Matt. Using estimates, it's only falling about 2 mb in the last hour and about 3 mb from 2 hours ago. Pressure went from about 1014mb to 1011mb.

Take a look at this page, there you can convert inches into millbars there

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/metcon.php

Cindy in the making? Pretty ferocious.....

Cindy in the making? Pretty ferocious.....

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