00Z Canadian now develops Caribbean

[mobilebay]

Low and takes it into my neck of the woods in 120 hours. The GFS tries to develop a low in the same spot but looses it before it reaches the Yucatan channel. Here is a look at the 00Z Canadian at 120 hours. Getting interesting. i also would like to note that the GFS takes the left over energy from its low and moves it inland in the exact same area.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 36_100.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It shows no low at the surface...Just one around 300 millibars(In this case 317 millibars)..,It doe's show a area of rainfall...


Also you went a Upper level high at the 200 to 300 millibar levels... Unless it forms inside a upper low.

[mobilebay]

It shows no low at the surface...Just one around 300 millibars(In this case 317 millibars)..,It doe's show a area of rainfall...


Also you went a Upper level high at the 200 to 300 millibar levels... Unless it forms inside a upper low.

Your right. I got excited and didn't read my map properly. However it does bring this out of the Southwest caribbean up into my neck of the woods. However it does not develop a surface low. Sorry. This is the first time I've ever done this. I will double check next time before making a fool out of myself.

[corpusbreeze]

It shows no low at the surface...Just one around 300 millibars(In this case 317 millibars)..,It doe's show a area of rainfall...


Also you went a Upper level high at the 200 to 300 millibar levels... Unless it forms inside a upper low.

Your right. I got excited and didn't read my map properly. However it does bring this out of the Southwest caribbean up into my neck of the woods. However it does not develop a surface low. Sorry. This is the first time I've ever done this. I will double check next time before making a fool out of myself.

Who cares it shows a low at some level in the GOM which is corrisponding to the mm5. Of course the mm5 shows a much stronger low. No harm no foul.

[robjay]

Hey this isn't the professional site. I don't think you can make a fool out of yourself here. Just give it the "Nevermind"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 950 millibar level is showing a piece of energy developing southeast of Jamaica. Then tracking it through the Yact/Cuba Channel into the Gulf. Interesting....But it seems to a fairly small area/system.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation


Holy wow...The cmc on the 925 milibar level develops it to. Same track as Gfs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[mobilebay]

Hey this isn't the professional site. I don't think you can make a fool out of yourself here. Just give it the "Nevermind"

Thanks. I'm just upset with myself because I know better. What happened was I check the models every night and it had become a routine to click the same area every time. I usually click the SLP every time. Well tonight I clicked the wrong area accidentally and didn't realize it. When I saw the low I got excited and posted without checking. It won't happen again, I tell you that. I'm really embarrassed. Good catch Matt!

[Steve]

Don't sweat it 'bay. I ran the rainfall loop and the precip doesn't even make it out of the Yucatan Channel yet in the 00z run. Chances are the CMC is onto something that it doesn't see yet at the surface for whatever reason. If it sees it at 350, 500 and 925, chances it will, in a subsequent run either lose those lows or add one somewhere at the surface.

Steve

[mobilebay]

The 950 millibar level is showing a piece of energy developing southeast of Jamaica. Then tracking it through the Yact/Cuba Channel into the Gulf. Interesting....But it seems to a fairly small area/system.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation


Holy wow...The cmc on the 925 milibar level develops it to. Same track as Gfs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Thats was the main point I was trying to make before I made an a## out of myself. They both take it on almost the exact same path, and time .

[Coredesat]

The CMC run shows something interesting developing at around 16N 55W at 72h, tracking toward Bermuda.