JB going the distance on SW Carib wave

[Portastorm]

I'm sure this will get some folks on S2K crowing, but JB this morning is rather bullish on the wave in the SW Caribbean. How much so? He is predicting a strong tropical storm and/or hurricane to hit the upper TX coast or Louisiana by later this next week!!

His prediction is bold. He's either going to look like a guru by next weekend or like a total idiot.

Meanwhile, I don't want to start another thread on JB's merits but his pattern recognition skills this year have been pretty good. Let's see what happens here.

[skysummit]

WOW JB! That is pretty darn bold. To actually predict a tropical storm or hurricane....then to predict where it will make landfall, when there is nothing but a wave out there! Holy smoke!

[jax]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

[MWatkins]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

Except...well...that phantom tropical storm last week that only he saw...and about Arlene hitting New Orleans. I have no idea what he said about Bret. It would have been hard to mess that up.

See...this is yet another one of those forecasts that is hard to quantify. For example...I am sure the words "if it develops" were used. If it becomes a TD and stays weak, for example, then anyone can say "see, it didn't develop". If it does get better organized, this is not a bold <b> prediction </b> at all. A system developing in the caribbean has no coice but to cross into the gulf with the persistent trough in the western Caribbean. The models have been suggesting this for DAYS.

The only way this prediction doesn't work out eaisly is if it comes in as a weak TS. But even then the concept of "sudden tightening" can be hyped until landfall.

MW

[Portastorm]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

Except...well...that phantom tropical storm last week that only he saw...and about Arlene hitting New Orleans. I have no idea what he said about Bret. It would have been hard to mess that up.

See...this is yet another one of those forecasts that is hard to quantify. For example...I am sure the words "if it develops" were used. If it becomes a TD and stays weak, for example, then anyone can say "see, it didn't develop". If it does get better organized, this is not a bold <b> prediction </b> at all. A system developing in the caribbean has no coice but to cross into the gulf with the persistent trough in the western Caribbean. The models have been suggesting this for DAYS.

The only way this prediction doesn't work out eaisly is if it comes in as a weak TS. But even then the concept of "sudden tightening" can be hyped until landfall.

MW

When I say his "prediction is bold", I guess I mean that he is taking what is now a wave (albeit looking better by the moment) and spinning up a tropical cyclone and even progging landfall in a certain area: Galveston to Mobile. You don't think that is bold?

[jax]

it is bold... and he's been right on so far this year...
we'll see how this one turns out... he's out on a limb...

[vbhoutex]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

Except...well...that phantom tropical storm last week that only he saw...and about Arlene hitting New Orleans. I have no idea what he said about Bret. It would have been hard to mess that up.

See...this is yet another one of those forecasts that is hard to quantify. For example...I am sure the words "if it develops" were used. If it becomes a TD and stays weak, for example, then anyone can say "see, it didn't develop". If it does get better organized, this is not a bold <b> prediction </b> at all. A system developing in the caribbean has no coice but to cross into the gulf with the persistent trough in the western Caribbean. The models have been suggesting this for DAYS.

The only way this prediction doesn't work out eaisly is if it comes in as a weak TS. But even then the concept of "sudden tightening" can be hyped until landfall.

MW

When I say his "prediction is bold", I guess I mean that he is taking what is now a wave (albeit looking better by the moment) and spinning up a tropical cyclone and even progging landfall in a certain area: Galveston to Mobile. You don't think that is bold?

Much bolder than I would ever be this far out. and I have made some pretty bold predictions(privately) that were much narrower than his and yes I nailed it. *vb falls down from patting himself too hard on the back*

[Portastorm]

LOL!!

I have not had such luck, vb. I'm still catching grief from friends & family from 1999 when I thought Bret would hit Corpus and impact those of us inland in Austin. They always remember the "misses" and not the "hits"!

[MWatkins]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

Except...well...that phantom tropical storm last week that only he saw...and about Arlene hitting New Orleans. I have no idea what he said about Bret. It would have been hard to mess that up.

See...this is yet another one of those forecasts that is hard to quantify. For example...I am sure the words "if it develops" were used. If it becomes a TD and stays weak, for example, then anyone can say "see, it didn't develop". If it does get better organized, this is not a bold <b> prediction </b> at all. A system developing in the caribbean has no coice but to cross into the gulf with the persistent trough in the western Caribbean. The models have been suggesting this for DAYS.

The only way this prediction doesn't work out eaisly is if it comes in as a weak TS. But even then the concept of "sudden tightening" can be hyped until landfall.

MW

When I say his "prediction is bold", I guess I mean that he is taking what is now a wave (albeit looking better by the moment) and spinning up a tropical cyclone and even progging landfall in a certain area: Galveston to Mobile. You don't think that is bold?

As for the prediction that something will develop, that's been covered. It's a no-lose situation because no mater what happens it can be said either:

"Hey, I said if it develops"

or

"see I told ya"

As far as a landfall forecast goes, he's predicting a US landfall anywhere in the gulf, really. The only it couldn't verify is if the system goes way far south in the BOC and stays weak (see above, it's still a "correct" forecast) or if it moves east of Florida or hits extreeme SW fl.

Anywhere else, and it's close enough.

Galveston to Mobile isn't narrowing it down much. So any hit in the FL panhandle is again close enough to be right, and any hit 100 miles south of the TX/MX border is close enough.

So making a prediction that a system, if it develops, will hit somewhere in the Gulf of mexico, given the synoptic pattern and what the models have been saying for days, to me isn't bold. That prediction can verify if something comes in over an 800 to 900 nautical mile stretch of coast.

MW

[vacanechaser]

Easy Watkins!!!! That vein in the middle of your forehead may rupture...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KatDaddy]

I see where Joe B thinks somethihng will head toward the Central GOM but did not hear him say a strong tropical storm or hurricane threat for the Upper TX or LA Coast. Did I miss something in the video??

[tw861]

I see where Joe B thinks somethihng will head toward the Central GOM but did not hear him say a strong tropical storm or hurricane threat for the Upper TX or LA Coast. Did I miss something in the video??

Wasn't in the video. He did a special post on the pro site on the threat to Louisiana or the upper Texas coast.

[corpusbreeze]

I don't think JB was being BOLD in his forecast or trying to be the first to call this system in the Caribbean. There is a chance for development, I feel a good one, and yes a threat in a few day in the GOM. Models are trending that way now. He is just concerned that it is a big beach coastal holiday, if you know what I mean, and people wont be paying attention to what might be out in the gulf.

[Portastorm]

he's been right all year... we'll see...

Except...well...that phantom tropical storm last week that only he saw...and about Arlene hitting New Orleans. I have no idea what he said about Bret. It would have been hard to mess that up.

See...this is yet another one of those forecasts that is hard to quantify. For example...I am sure the words "if it develops" were used. If it becomes a TD and stays weak, for example, then anyone can say "see, it didn't develop". If it does get better organized, this is not a bold <b> prediction </b> at all. A system developing in the caribbean has no coice but to cross into the gulf with the persistent trough in the western Caribbean. The models have been suggesting this for DAYS.

The only way this prediction doesn't work out eaisly is if it comes in as a weak TS. But even then the concept of "sudden tightening" can be hyped until landfall.

MW

When I say his "prediction is bold", I guess I mean that he is taking what is now a wave (albeit looking better by the moment) and spinning up a tropical cyclone and even progging landfall in a certain area: Galveston to Mobile. You don't think that is bold?

As for the prediction that something will develop, that's been covered. It's a no-lose situation because no mater what happens it can be said either:

"Hey, I said if it develops"

or

"see I told ya"

As far as a landfall forecast goes, he's predicting a US landfall anywhere in the gulf, really. The only it couldn't verify is if the system goes way far south in the BOC and stays weak (see above, it's still a "correct" forecast) or if it moves east of Florida or hits extreeme SW fl.

Anywhere else, and it's close enough.

Galveston to Mobile isn't narrowing it down much. So any hit in the FL panhandle is again close enough to be right, and any hit 100 miles south of the TX/MX border is close enough.

So making a prediction that a system, if it develops, will hit somewhere in the Gulf of mexico, given the synoptic pattern and what the models have been saying for days, to me isn't bold. That prediction can verify if something comes in over an 800 to 900 nautical mile stretch of coast.

MW

It appears I am not going to change your mind on this ...

All I know is JB is the first pro met to go on the record and suggest development as well as potential landfall. But again, I don't want this to be a referendum on JB and his merits. We've all read enough posts on that to last a lifetime.

[dhweather]

it is bold... and he's been right on so far this year...
we'll see how this one turns out... he's out on a limb...

I have to disagree. He has not been "right on" this year.
There was no system last week, as he indicated there would be.
There's others he's missed as well.


Calling for a named storm and landfall location when nothing is
there right now is ridiculous.

[x-y-no]

OK, I just watched his video, and he doesn't say TS or hurricane there, nor does he give a landfall location, so I guess this is his column you're referring to?

In the video, he hedges things pretty well, saying stuff like

"I think it's going to develop now."

"Jet region exiting storm" (talking about when it gets into the gulf)

"Ugly situation"

"very worried - possible development"

----

He was also very bullish on the Atlantic system - drawing parallels to Bertha setup - trough amplification - model runs shifting west - warm water feedback - very worried about US landfall.

---

I don't know ... we'll see. My take is JB knows a lot, and his speculations and discussions of the long range taught me a fair bit back when I was subscribing. But what he does is something different than what NHC does. And when it comes to what NHC does, and what their purpose is, I think they do a better and more responsible job than Accuweather.

Jan

[Portastorm]

My initial post is in reference to his pro site column posting at 815 am this morning. I also saw the video and he tempers his comments a bit.

But his column is very clear in his statements.

As someone posted earlier, I think JB's biggest concern is a holiday weekend, people not paying attention along the coast, and the potential and synoptic set-up for a quickly developing tropical system.

Michael

[jax]

it is bold... and he's been right on so far this year...
we'll see how this one turns out... he's out on a limb...

I have to disagree. He has not been "right on" this year.
There was no system last week, as he indicated there would be.
There's others he's missed as well.


Calling for a named storm and landfall location when nothing is
there right now is ridiculous.

you said there was "no system last week..."

were where you last week....

ummmm... NAMED STORM CALLED BRET

[Steve]

Mike,

Unless you saw a video that I didn't or unless you subscribe to the column which I don't, his call for Arlene wasn't ever for New Orleans that I can recall. I know he said between New Orleans and Apalachacola. Again, I might have missed something, but I don't think so. Had he made the call for New Orleans, it would have been all over S2K and everywhere else. Turns out Arlene split the difference and hit Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties. I'm not disputing the "forecast" side of things, but he always says that's not his forte'. He doesn't usually get into end-game stuff.

dh,

>>I have to disagree. He has not been "right on" this year.
There was no system last week, as he indicated there would be.
There's others he's missed as well.

Bret came from the pattern. He started talking about something popping after the next "pattern pulse" which was a trof split. We nearly got two storms out the deal but ended up with only Bret. The northern end of that wave did split off but didn't develop. It later split again sending a ton of moisture across Florida and Georgia for several days in a row. The storm itself moved into Mexico. His early hype was courtesy of the European which went weaker and further south with time.

/just setting the record straight.

Btw, thanks for the update Porta. He's a little further north than what I've been saying since Monday in the case of development (I'm more thinking TX-LA Border to NE Mexico with the likely impact of whatever in the southern or central Texas coast. Absolute best case would probably be a Cat 1 with the range of probability falling somewhere beween tropical wave/surge of easterlies to high-end tropical storm.

Steve

[dhweather]

OK, I just watched his video, and he doesn't say TS or hurricane there, nor does he give a landfall location, so I guess this is his column you're referring to?

In the video, he hedges things pretty well, saying stuff like

"I think it's going to develop now."

"Jet region exiting storm" (talking about when it gets into the gulf)

"Ugly situation"

"very worried - possible development"

----

He was also very bullish on the Atlantic system - drawing parallels to Bertha setup - trough amplification - model runs shifting west - warm water feedback - very worried about US landfall.

---

I don't know ... we'll see. My take is JB knows a lot, and his speculations and discussions of the long range taught me a fair bit back when I was subscribing. But what he does is something different than what NHC does. And when it comes to what NHC does, and what their purpose is, I think they do a better and more responsible job than Accuweather.

Jan

Exactly Jan - the NHC keeps an even keel and does not senationalize the
weather. JB does, and that is setting up susbcribers for the infamous
"crying wolf" syndrome. He'll keep this up, then people that are
drinking the Accuweather kool-aid will begin to question him, and
ignore the one that does develop and threatens them.

The mission of the NHC is dramatically different than Accuweather.
NHC is about saving lives and property, Accuweather is about making
a profit, and they appear to be sensationalizing as if they are
going for neilson ratings or something.

Thus, I consider them the National Enquirer of the weather.