5:30AM TWO-DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE

[Anonymous]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0901.shtml

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm not sure yet. The 06z Gfs is still not showing anything so far at 24 hours. The enviroment is becoming much more favable. So there is a chance. Lets see if we can get another Bret or Alrene like storm.

It develops a low after 42 to 48 hours. But who knows.


The other system over the central Atlatnic has left the building. The Gfs was developing it for a week. I will not trust that model outside of 48 hours ever.

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST
NEAR 10N76W NNE ALONG 15N75W TO THE NW HAITI/MONA PASSAGE AREA.
THE IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING A HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED JUST SE OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED STRONG TSTM CLUSTERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE
S OF 16N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI. WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W
15 KT IS EVIDENT W OF THE WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
12N81W. THIS CIRCULATION CENTER HAS ACQUIRED SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
NOTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE S OF 16N W OF 81W. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W AND
SHOULD AFFECT MANY PARTS OF THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS/HEAVY RAINFALL THRU TUE.



From Discussion at 8:05 AM.

This could be a player if conditions aloft improve on a fairly rapid way.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm I would say things are looking up for our
Carribean disturbance.

[vacanechaser]

I'm not sure yet. The 06z Gfs is still not showing anything so far at 24 hours. The enviroment is becoming much more favable. So there is a chance. Lets see if we can get another Bret or Alrene like storm.

It develops a low after 42 to 48 hours. But who knows.


The other system over the central Atlatnic has left the building. The Gfs was developing it for a week. I will not trust that model outside of 48 hours ever.

Well, I think the GFS is wrong most times too.. The model is horrible. However, I think that with the first sign of development from the system a few days ago was right. It just looses most systems for whatever reasons. There are other people on the board who know the problems better than I and can tell what the internal malfunction is. Don't write that wave off.. I feel storngly that we will be tracking this this weekend


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[rainydaze]

From the Miami NWS......STAY TUNED!

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIB AT THE MOMENT WILL MOVE WEST AND COULD BE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA/NORTHWEST CARIB BY SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE AN
EFFECT OVER OUR LOCAL WEATHER. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE WESTERN CARIB BY
THE TIME THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE POSSIBLE...STAY TUNED.

[dhweather]

I'm not sure yet. The 06z Gfs is still not showing anything so far at 24 hours. The enviroment is becoming much more favable. So there is a chance. Lets see if we can get another Bret or Alrene like storm.

It develops a low after 42 to 48 hours. But who knows.


The other system over the central Atlatnic has left the building. The Gfs was developing it for a week. I will not trust that model outside of 48 hours ever.

Well, I think the GFS is wrong most times too.. The model is horrible. However, I think that with the first sign of development from the system a few days ago was right. It just looses most systems for whatever reasons. There are other people on the board who know the problems better than I and can tell what the internal malfunction is. Don't write that wave off.. I feel storngly that we will be tracking this this weekend


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

The GFS has been suspect this year.

[vacanechaser]

The GFS has been suspect this year.

This year and every other year...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dhweather]

I thought the GFS did better in 2004 than 2003, but so far, 2005 looks like its taken a step backwards.

[gkrangers]

I thought the GFS did better in 2004 than 2003, but so far, 2005 looks like its taken a step backwards.

Its FAR too early to judge the performance of the GFS this season. Lets see how it handles storms during the peak.

[x-y-no]

I'm not sure yet. The 06z Gfs is still not showing anything so far at 24 hours. The enviroment is becoming much more favable. So there is a chance. Lets see if we can get another Bret or Alrene like storm.

It develops a low after 42 to 48 hours. But who knows.


The other system over the central Atlatnic has left the building. The Gfs was developing it for a week. I will not trust that model outside of 48 hours ever.

Well, I think the GFS is wrong most times too.. The model is horrible. However, I think that with the first sign of development from the system a few days ago was right. It just looses most systems for whatever reasons. There are other people on the board who know the problems better than I and can tell what the internal malfunction is. Don't write that wave off.. I feel storngly that we will be tracking this this weekend


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think the GFS is very useful so long as one watches out for it's quirks and limitations. I don't rely on it for cyclogenesis at all, because it doesn't handle transitional convection situations well. But it can give very good guidance about the conditions which may contribute to (or suppress) cyclogenesis, from which one can make a judgement.

And it's quite good at the mid-latitude stuff, which means that it can offer quite good guidance regarding steering influences for developed systems. We'll have to wait until we get a couple of serious storms before we can know if the problems it exhibited last year with weakening the mid-level ridging north of storms and thus turning them prematurely has been cured with the new upgrades or not. But either way, that's something one can compensate for if one knows what it tends to do.

The bottom line is all the models have their shortcomings, but I think the GFS ranks near the top in terms of real usefulness.

Jan

[tw861]

the latest....

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 1, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms continues
over portions of the central and southwestern Caribbean
Sea...primarily associated with a westward moving tropical wave.
There are no signs of a surface circulation...but upper-level winds
are becoming a little more favorable for some development during
the next day or two...as the system moves over the western
Caribbean Sea.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

Forecaster Avila

about the same as the other one.

[Scorpion]

They still dont mention the Central Atlantic wave?

[Air Force Met]

The GFS doesn't develop the system because there is not a lot of convective activity out there right now for it to input into it's model. Remember...it has convective feedback loop problems and if there is not convection for it to loop on...then you get the reverse problem...it won't develop it

[Derek Ortt]

just a slight correction


the TWO does not say anywhere that development may be possible. It just says upper winds are forecast to become more favorable for development

[TS Zack]

Tell me if I am wrong but isn't development always possible?

I don't think the NHC has to say if it is possible, its always a possibility. They say over the Next Day or Two so that gives you a hint they are going more towards development of this system.

[AL Chili Pepper]

IMO, the GFS is hit-and-miss. It did a good job with Arlene, picking it up 2 or 3 days out. It also showed it weakening before it made landfall. It was also pretty accurate on its forecast path.

[DROliver]

just a slight correction


the TWO does not say anywhere that development may be possible. It just says upper winds are forecast to become more favorable for development

just a slight correction


development may be possible = forecast to become more favorable for development

So what is the correction?

at 11:30 before your reply the TWO stated but upper-level winds
are becoming a little more favorable for some development


some development = possible development

Definition of possible:
1. Capable of happening, existing, or being true without contradicting proven facts, laws, or circumstances.
2. Capable of occurring or being done without offense to character, nature, or custom.
3. Capable of favorable development; potential: a possible site for the new capital.
4. Of uncertain likelihood.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=possible

I fail to understand why there is any need for a correction

Steve

[Anonymous]

So do I, as development is indeed possible.

[Rainband]

Thank God it's coming no where near Florida. Sorry for anybody this hits if and when it develops but we don't need it