Cindy in the making? Pretty ferocious.....

[bevgo]

Thanks Air Force Met. That was a very informative post and very considerate of a young person trying to understand his interest. Some (not on this board) would have taken the opportunity to flame Matt when it is not necessary. That is what I like about this board--people like you that take the time to explain without making others feel foolish. BRAVO!!!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

We are sure having enough rain in Florida! Wish I could send some your way.

[dwg71]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

The ridge over texas is going to make it difficult for anything to make it to the upper texas coast, imo. lower texas coast maybe, but until it moves on, which may not happen until october, it will be difficult.

[tw861]

Looks like just a wave to me now - absolutely no signs of any surface circulation (See the GARP image below). Pressures are now rising in the region, by the way. With the upper low heading out to the west, wind shear is dropping across the wave. So we'll have to keep an eye on it, for sure. But nothing is imminent in the way of development.

Best chances will come if/when it moves into the southwest Gulf or BoC early next week. Perhaps a 20% chance by then. Most likely track would be toward northern Mexico or the lower Texas coast, as a high pressure area will be building eastward across the Gulf early next week.

Here's the image, in full (non 256-color) resolution from work

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib.gif">

I noticed there are some northwest winds on the coast of Nicaragua.

[Stormcenter]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

The ridge over texas is going to make it difficult for anything to make it to the upper texas coast, imo. lower texas coast maybe, but until it moves on, which may not happen until october, it will be difficult.

Hey look quit trying to burst my bubble. I'm tired of watering my lawn. I have faith in my Met and if he says the moisture is coming than I believe him.

[wxman57]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

I think that the models have/had it developing an LLC too far north, so I think northern Mexico or lower TX coast is more likely. Also, that ridge will be building westward across the northern Gulf by Tuesday.

[Air Force Met]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

The ridge over texas is going to make it difficult for anything to make it to the upper texas coast, imo. lower texas coast maybe, but until it moves on, which may not happen until october, it will be difficult.

Take a look at the model runs. The ridge is not there in a couple of days. The 700/500mb break in the ridge is setting up over Texas.

The ridge is going to be setting up over Florida...which is perfect for western GOM activity.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

[dhweather]

AFM - is there a hint of an open circulation/broad low just south
of Jamacia?

[dwg71]

Isnt it amazing that some (myself included) are making landfall, intensity forecasts/predictions on a "system" that does not even have an invest yet.

It does not look that impressive on sat.

[Stormcenter]

Isnt it amazing that some (myself included) are making landfall, intensity forecasts/predictions on a "system" that does not even have an invest yet.

It does not look that impressive on sat.

But isn't that always the case and then bang you have an invest then a TD and so on. The tropics can change so quickly
that you can go from a disorganized mess (like now) into a full fledge organized tropical system in no time. I'm not saying that will happen but I would not be surprised if your tune is different later this upcoming weekend.

[dwg71]

Isnt it amazing that some (myself included) are making landfall, intensity forecasts/predictions on a "system" that does not even have an invest yet.

It does not look that impressive on sat.

But isn't that always the case and then bang you have an invest then a TD and so on. The tropics can change so quickly
that you can go from a disorganized mess (like now) into a full fledge organized tropical system in no time. I'm not saying that will happen but I would not be surprised if your tune is different later this upcoming weekend.

No tune to change, it could develop, it could not. I just stating an observation. Personally, I dont think it will develop. Thats just my take.

[Air Force Met]

AFM - is there a hint of an open circulation/broad low just south
of Jamacia?

I think there is some mid level vorticity, but only slight cyclonic turning at the sfc associated with the wave. There are a lot of outflow boundaries in the low level cu field...no real turning though. Needs to be some more convergence somewhere to get the thunderstorms going. Right now...seems to be very little convergence anywhere.

[dhweather]

AFM - is there a hint of an open circulation/broad low just south
of Jamacia?

I think there is some mid level vorticity, but only slight cyclonic turning at the sfc associated with the wave. There are a lot of outflow boundaries in the low level cu field...no real turning though. Needs to be some more convergence somewhere to get the thunderstorms going. Right now...seems to be very little convergence anywhere.

The convection associated with this wave has significantly diminshed in
the last 12-18 hours. It's almost gone "poof".

If we don't see it re-fire today, then I won't expect any development of this, and I already did not expect much.

[Wpwxguy]

Just give her a little time folks. Me thinks she'll make you proud. LOL. I really don't see much of a circulation today, yesterday I really thought there was one but now it looks pretty ragged. I guess it was a mid level twist. I really think it still has a chance though, as conditions appear to be becoming more favorable. The storms are firing up quite a bit to the south and west, so I say she'll refire later today or tonight. IMO I may eat my words and it won't be the first time , I think this will be Cindy in a couple days. Please don't stone me for saying that. LOL

[Nimbus]

Looks like some twist in the low level clouds starting near 15N 80W but that could be mid level circulation.
I hope Florida doesn't get any more rain since we already have standing pools of water where they shouldn't be.
On the other hand I would hate to see this thing spin up tightly into a hurricane even though that would keep most of the moisture out over the gulf.

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP shot. Buoy near 15N/80W has rising pressure and light SE wind. Nothing there at the surface.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib2.gif">

[skysummit]

It is starting to look ragidy.

[wxman57]

I notice the 12Z GFS and NOGAPS take it across the southern Yucatan and southern BoC - like Bret.

[southerngale]

Isnt it amazing that some (myself included) are making landfall, intensity forecasts/predictions on a "system" that does not even have an invest yet.

It does not look that impressive on sat.

Yeah, but I don't care if it develops or not. If the met stormcenter heard is right, that means we might get rain!! That's all I care about right now. Bring me rain young wave.

[Deenac813]

Local mets have this disturbance moving toward the upper Texas (Please we need the rain but NO hurricane) or the SW La. coastline.

The ridge over texas is going to make it difficult for anything to make it to the upper texas coast, imo. lower texas coast maybe, but until it moves on, which may not happen until october, it will be difficult.

Take a look at the model runs. The ridge is not there in a couple of days. The 700/500mb break in the ridge is setting up over Texas.

The ridge is going to be setting up over Florida...which is perfect for western GOM activity.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpres ... 0_090m.gif

Ummm.. help a novice out, please. Is this the same type of ridge that we do NOT want over florida? Like last year's set up? Sorry if that is a stupid question