July 1st, Tropical Update Video

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have a sore throat, but I went on and did it anyways

Here it is:::
http://radio.nhcwx.com/flghchp/displayi ... m=2&pos=11

Comments welcome

[corpusbreeze]

If the Caribbean system does not develop before the GOM would you say it would have a good chance at the west GOM? Reason i ask, it would be nice to have a good wave hit our area in Texas. We need the rain mucho bad.

[TS Zack]

Good Video Mike... Sorry I have been busy and have stayed away from making my daily video. I will try to get back on track sometime next week.

I am going on Vacation this weekend so enjoy your 4th...

[Anonymous]

Well, I hope it does not hit the US, because if it does....let's just say it probably won't be Grace.

[TS Zack]

That would be muy bad.... LOL you just said alot bad. Or Much Bad.

[dhweather]

Great job Mike, as always.


But you STILL HAVEN'T MOVED THE POSTERS CLOSER!!!!


Heck, put the camera on the posters and just talk.

[senorpepr]

Great job Mike, as always.


But you STILL HAVEN'T MOVED THE POSTERS CLOSER!!!!


Heck, put the camera on the posters and just talk.

LOL... now that's just funny.

Great job, Mike.

[Anonymous]

Thanks...I'm feeling better now. Eatin some popcorn.

[dhweather]

Get that throat well Mike, you might be REAL busy early next week.

[jimvb]

Interesting videos, Mike. Your sore throat does not seem to affect the quality of your voice today. You help explain features of the storms that might not be evident upon just looking at satellite pictures or model predictions.

I see three possible storms in the next two weeks. Two of these you mention. I am going to a summer camp ( http://www.suusi.org ) from July 17-23, and so I am concerned about a tropical cyclone interfering with that. Any tropical cyclone that hits from southern Florida to Baltimore or the eastern GOM could affect this, because people come to this gathering from Florida, NC, VA, and GA. I am particularly concerned about VA (where I live) and FL.

The one out in the Atlantic you mention - you say it could give trouble next week, but the GFS simply has it go poof. The 00Z run shows the Caribbean system hitting LA, but the 12Z run has it go poof. Why is the GFS doing this? After 7 days it's the only game in town. I saw it make Ivan go poof on GFS last year as well, and it took a few runs before it decided that it was going to be a powerful landstriking hurricane.

Also, the 00Z run of GFS shows a storm threatening the Carolinas on July 16, the day before I go to the camp. The 12Z run does not show it much at all. What do you make of that one? Or is this one of GFS's farout dreams?

[Anonymous]

Time will tell, but I am most concerned about the system in the Caribbean, given the fact that it could deepen over those warm, favorable gulf waters.

[vacanechaser]

Interesting videos, Mike. Your sore throat does not seem to affect the quality of your voice today. You help explain features of the storms that might not be evident upon just looking at satellite pictures or model predictions.

I see three possible storms in the next two weeks. Two of these you mention. I am going to a summer camp ( http://www.suusi.org ) from July 17-23, and so I am concerned about a tropical cyclone interfering with that. Any tropical cyclone that hits from southern Florida to Baltimore or the eastern GOM could affect this, because people come to this gathering from Florida, NC, VA, and GA. I am particularly concerned about VA (where I live) and FL.

The one out in the Atlantic you mention - you say it could give trouble next week, but the GFS simply has it go poof. The 00Z run shows the Caribbean system hitting LA, but the 12Z run has it go poof. Why is the GFS doing this? After 7 days it's the only game in town. I saw it make Ivan go poof on GFS last year as well, and it took a few runs before it decided that it was going to be a powerful landstriking hurricane.

Also, the 00Z run of GFS shows a storm threatening the Carolinas on July 16, the day before I go to the camp. The 12Z run does not show it much at all. What do you make of that one? Or is this one of GFS's farout dreams?

First off, the GFS is in lala land most of the time.. I am sorry to disappoint most people here who are mets and may sware by it, but it is horrible most times.. The 0Z and 12Z runs are most likely the better runs due to obs from around the palnet being fed into the system, if I understand it correctly. The other 2 runs, the 6Z and 18Z are just runs based off the 0Z and the 12Z.. The GFS always seems to loose a system for whatever reason. I canr explain why, I just know it happens more times than not.. Hell, back in 2003, a cat 3 and cat 4 hurricane Fabian did not show more than just a bump on the GFS for several runs in a row. Just horrible..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team