My take on Caribbean System....

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My take on Caribbean System....

#1 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:39 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I think we will have a system move into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel or over the NE Yucatan. I do not think it will be that strong when it enters the gulf. As it enters, the upper level environment should be quite favorable, and the waters are very warm, so I would see steady intensification, like Bret, until landfall would occur, most likely in middle Texas. I will not give a strength since rapid increases in intensity would be impossible to predict, and given a favorable environment, anything is possible.
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wxcrazytwo

#2 Postby wxcrazytwo » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:40 pm

You didn't have to make a separate post.
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#3 Postby EyeOfTheStorm » Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:40 pm

I hope you are correct......... :D
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:34 pm

Mike the developing system just off the coast of CentralAmerica in the EPAC may not let the Caribbean system get going due to it's outflow.It has to move west away from the coast to separate from the Caribbean area to then have a chance.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:40 pm

The is always some kind of problem, when everything seems to be coming together, then "DORA" wants to develop and thereafter will inhibit much a the Caribbean System developing process. :(
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#6 Postby EyeOfTheStorm » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:Mike the developing system just off the coast of CentralAmerica in the EPAC may not let the Caribbean system get going due to it's outflow.It has to move west away from the coast to separate from the Caribbean area to then have a chance.


I dont see any outflow touching the Caribbean .......please show what you are talking about
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#7 Postby TS Zack » Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:50 pm

Look what Bret did with a weakening Calvin....Both systems are still if's right now...

I cannot agree on your track scenario because of a Ridge over Texas. A better area would be Tx/La Border.. In that general area.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:00 pm

Darn I'm going out of town for the 4th. So I will not be hear intill after that. I will watch it intill then.
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#9 Postby dwg71 » Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:04 pm

TS Zack wrote:Look what Bret did with a weakening Calvin....Both systems are still if's right now...

I cannot agree on your track scenario because of a Ridge over Texas. A better area would be Tx/La Border.. In that general area.


Are you saying ridge will move out?
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#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:07 pm

I'm going to say that this wave has a small chance
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#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:07 pm

great update Mike
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:09 pm

EyeOfTheStorm wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Mike the developing system just off the coast of CentralAmerica in the EPAC may not let the Caribbean system get going due to it's outflow.It has to move west away from the coast to separate from the Caribbean area to then have a chance.


I dont see any outflow touching the Caribbean .......please show what you are talking about


No outflow as system has not developed yet.I was talking about the outtflow when the system develops. The outflow can be established as soon that system at EPAC gets going but as it moves west away from CentralAmerica it goes away from the Caribbean system then it has a better chance.
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